Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby DonaldGrump on Tue 28 Mar 2017, 11:54 am

Brevet Cable wrote:What pleasant weather ?.....unless rain & gale-force winds count as pleasant, that is. :lol:


Where on earth are you? We have had most spring like weather in most of the country....I have even had my first joust of the year with a tennis ball sized bumble bee that flew in through the window looking for a rumble.
DonaldGrump

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 28 Mar 2017, 1:08 pm

( Not so ) sunny South Wales, where the weather for the last few months has pretty much been wet, windy, or both.....and it's currently raining, with the forecast for the rest of the week being even more rain. Image
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby DonaldGrump on Mon 29 May 2017, 10:42 pm

I have to say I am now deeply concerned having seen on the Cosford thread rumours of rain being forecast on some website and have thus decided to stay in and watch Sunday Brunch on that day.

Does anybody have any reliable information on what weather they have planned for RIAT this year and if so on what days is it going to rain?

I want to try and go on the days it stays dry, and perhaps a bit sunny and it has to be nice and warm too. No rain though as I have a hole in one of my trainers.

As I will be camping on Totterdown and its a bit higher up than than some of the surrounding countryside thus more likely to be dangerous in a thunderstorm, does anyone know where you can get a good lightning conductor for a tent?

Brevet has it stopped raining in South Wales yet?
DonaldGrump

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby CJS on Tue 30 May 2017, 10:39 am

DonaldGrump wrote:I have to say I am now deeply concerned having seen on the Cosford thread rumours of rain being forecast on some website and have thus decided to stay in and watch Sunday Brunch on that day.

Does anybody have any reliable information on what weather they have planned for RIAT this year and if so on what days is it going to rain?

I want to try and go on the days it stays dry, and perhaps a bit sunny and it has to be nice and warm too. No rain though as I have a hole in one of my trainers.

As I will be camping on Totterdown and its a bit higher up than than some of the surrounding countryside thus more likely to be dangerous in a thunderstorm, does anyone know where you can get a good lightning conductor for a tent?

Brevet has it stopped raining in South Wales yet?


At least you're safe from the Noah and his Ark-esque floods that will engulf said surrounding countryside - you'll be the only one's safe from them. I mean, obviously dead from the lightning, but at least the inside of your tent will be dry (charcoal, but dry).
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby jalfrezi on Tue 30 May 2017, 10:44 am

DonaldGrump wrote:As I will be camping on Totterdown and its a bit higher up than than some of the surrounding countryside thus more likely to be dangerous in a thunderstorm, does anyone know where you can get a good lightning conductor for a tent?


Just attach a 1 iron to your tent as even God can't hit one of those.
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 30 May 2017, 11:01 am

Don't worry, there'll be plenty of idiots erecting lightning conductors ( AKA those stupid flag-poles & streamers ) outside their tents/caravans, just like at all the other campsites :whistle:
:biggrin:
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby Go4Long on Tue 30 May 2017, 1:48 pm

People aren't seriously trying to guess at the weather 50 days out are they?

I'm flying over from Canada for the show, purchased my tickets and flights before Christmas. The solution to being unsure which day will have good weather is just to go to all of them.
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby Andyperkins on Tue 30 May 2017, 1:57 pm

Go4Long wrote:People aren't seriously trying to guess at the weather 50 days out are they?

I'm flying over from Canada for the show, purchased my tickets and flights before Christmas. The solution to being unsure which day will have good weather is just to go to all of them.


No its taking the micky out of the post in the Cosford thread at a forecast predicting rain with 2 weeks to go, the only reliable forecast is looking outside on the day lol I still remember checking the weather forecast a few years ago on the Friday evening and it said Sunday would be non-stop rain all day with thunder, come Sunday morning it had changed to light cloud and showers and ended up with a brief 10 minute shower in the morning and the rest of the day was clear blue skies.
Andyperkins

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby CJS on Tue 30 May 2017, 2:21 pm

Go4Long wrote:People aren't seriously trying to guess at the weather 50 days out are they?

I'm flying over from Canada for the show, purchased my tickets and flights before Christmas. The solution to being unsure which day will have good weather is just to go to all of them.


We're Bristish (most of us). It's what we do best.

Apart from Football (oh no, wait...)

And tea, we do do tea the best. :cuppa:

To be honest, if we're only starting to guess 50 days out, that's pretty restrained based on previous years. :butt:
"Forewarned is forearmed"
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby Go4Long on Tue 30 May 2017, 5:13 pm

lol. fair play. we have a saying here in Alberta. If you don't like the weather wait five minutes...it'll change.

We don't even trust a 7 day forecast here.
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby aviodromefriend on Tue 30 May 2017, 6:22 pm

Andyperkins wrote:the only reliable forecast is looking outside on the day lol
and some characters even then put more believe in their smartphones
A weather forecast is a forecast and just that

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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby aviodromefriend on Mon 26 Jun 2017, 8:28 pm

http://www.weeronline.nl/Europa/Groot-Brittannie/Fairford/4394649 No, I'm not jealous about the people that are out on the base this week to build up the showground. (It now says Tuesday 7.4 mm rain, Wednesday 14.8, Thursday 6.1, Friday 12.4). Hopefully the grass will manage to handle this water.
A weather forecast is a forecast and just that

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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby aviodromefriend on Fri 30 Jun 2017, 10:50 pm

http://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/16days.asp?MonthOf=7&zipcode=FAIRFORD seems to predict a quite dry weekend, just will that crosswind allow the warbirds to take off? Oh, and Friday still needs a bit of improvement.
A weather forecast is a forecast and just that

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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby Burleysway on Sat 01 Jul 2017, 7:26 am

From the BBC....

Monday 10 July—Sunday 23 July

Finally something a little more like summer!

Looking in to mid-July the changeable weather is likely to continue in the north bringing more spells of rain and some showers too, but equally some sunnier spells in-between. The theme of seeing the driest and brightest weather in the south is also likely to continue during this period and at times these conditions may spread to all, especially later on. This would mean more sunshine and consequently higher temperatures but with an increase in temperatures the risk of some thundery outbreaks also increases.
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby aviodromefriend on Mon 03 Jul 2017, 9:48 am

Metcheck a few minutes ago:

Wednesday 12 July☀ ▲ 5:01 21:19 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain% Snow% Rain Cloud Dir Speed Gust RH Weather Conf.
1:00 15 °c 16 °c 3 % 0 % 0.0mm 88% [Wind from WSW (242°)] 6mph 11mph 91% [Partly Cloudy]
4:00 15 °c 15 °c 5 % 0 % 0.0mm 85% [Wind from SW (233°)] 8mph 13mph 95% [Partly Cloudy]
7:00 15 °c 15 °c 7 % 0 % 0.1mm 93% [Wind from SW (224°)] 8mph 13mph 96% [Cloudy]
10:00 16 °c 16 °c 4 % 0 % 0.1mm 93% [Wind from SW (226°)] 11mph 15mph 94% [Cloudy]
13:00 18 °c 19 °c 2 % 0 % 0.1mm 53% [Wind from SW (227°)] 13mph 17mph 86% [Cloudy]
16:00 20 °c 20 °c 2 % 0 % 0.2mm 61% [Wind from SW (231°)] 13mph 17mph 79% [Showers]
19:00 19 °c 20 °c 2 % 0 % 0.4mm 62% [Wind from WSW (241°)] 13mph 17mph 72% [Showers]
22:00 17 °c 17 °c 2 % 0 % 0.4mm 84% [Wind from WSW (240°)] 11mph 15mph 77% [Showers]

Thursday 13 July☀ ▲ 5:02 21:19 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 12 °c 12 °c 0.0 mm 32 % [Wind from WSW (244°)] 4 mph 95 % [Partly Cloudy]
7:00 14 °c 15 °c 0.2 mm 58 % [Wind from WSW (238°)] 3 mph 94 % [Partly Cloudy]
13:00 20 °c 21 °c 0.3 mm 61 % [Wind from WSW (259°)] 7 mph 61 % [Partly Cloudy]
19:00 20 °c 21 °c 0.0 mm 43 % [Wind from WNW (292°)] 7 mph 61 % [Partly Cloudy]

Friday 14 July☀ ▲ 5:03 21:18 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.0 mm 3 % [Wind from WNW (303°)] 4 mph 94 % [Clear]
7:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.0 mm 2 % [Wind from NNW (339°)] 5 mph 89 % [Sunny]
13:00 25 °c 27 °c 0.0 mm 3 % [Wind from WNW (283°)] 0 mph 47 % [Sunny]
19:00 23 °c 25 °c 0.0 mm 45 % [Wind from WNW (284°)] 5 mph 52 % [Partly Cloudy]

Saturday 15 July☀ ▲ 5:04 21:17 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 16 °c 16 °c 0.0 mm 65 % [Wind from WNW (295°)] 5 mph 83 % [Partly Cloudy]
7:00 16 °c 16 °c 0.0 mm 16 % [Wind from W (272°)] 6 mph 88 % [Fair]
13:00 19 °c 20 °c 0.1 mm 36 % [Wind from WSW (258°)] 12 mph 61 % [Partly Cloudy]
19:00 18 °c 18 °c 0.2 mm 51 % [Wind from WSW (242°)] 14 mph 78 % [Partly Cloudy]

Sunday 16 July☀ ▲ 5:06 21:16 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.3 mm 84 % [Wind from W (273°)] 8 mph 83 % [Cloudy]
7:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.0 mm 20 % [Wind from W (266°)] 6 mph 82 % [Fair]
13:00 17 °c 17 °c 0.2 mm 40 % [Wind from WSW (255°)] 12 mph 58 % [Partly Cloudy]
19:00 16 °c 16 °c 0.1 mm 81 % [Wind from WSW (251°)] 14 mph 61 % [Cloudy]

Monday 17 July☀ ▲ 5:07 21:15 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 13 °c 13 °c 0.0 mm 53 % [Wind from WSW (240°)] 12 mph 84 % [Partly Cloudy]
7:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.2 mm 71 % [Wind from WSW (256°)] 11 mph 83 % [Cloudy]
13:00 17 °c 18 °c 0.3 mm 95 % [Wind from W (268°)] 14 mph 63 % [Cloudy]
19:00 17 °c 18 °c 0.0 mm 84 % [Wind from W (274°)] 12 mph 59 % [Cloudy]

Although weeronline rates the RIAT period until the Sunday (no monday listed as yet) as a 7, they predict more rain for every day. It just can't be the actual weather is depending on the website someone is looking at, I would have thought...
A weather forecast is a forecast and just that

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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby rdchawk on Mon 03 Jul 2017, 10:05 am

Monday 10 July—Sunday 16 July
A northwest - southeast split continues.

As we look further ahead it looks likely that we will keep a fairly unsettled picture with bands of rain crossing the UK, interspersed by drier and brighter conditions. The best of the sunshine is likely to be in the southeast, however even here the summer threat of thundery showers moving in from the near continent is always present. The northwest is likely to see the lion's share of the wet and windy weather, although there should be some sunnier weather too at times, especially later in the week.


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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby henk99 on Mon 03 Jul 2017, 2:59 pm

aviodromefriend wrote:Metcheck a few minutes ago:

Wednesday 12 July☀ ▲ 5:01 21:19 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain% Snow% Rain Cloud Dir Speed Gust RH Weather Conf.
1:00 15 °c 16 °c 3 % 0 % 0.0mm 88% [Wind from WSW (242°)] 6mph 11mph 91% [Partly Cloudy]
4:00 15 °c 15 °c 5 % 0 % 0.0mm 85% [Wind from SW (233°)] 8mph 13mph 95% [Partly Cloudy]
7:00 15 °c 15 °c 7 % 0 % 0.1mm 93% [Wind from SW (224°)] 8mph 13mph 96% [Cloudy]
10:00 16 °c 16 °c 4 % 0 % 0.1mm 93% [Wind from SW (226°)] 11mph 15mph 94% [Cloudy]
13:00 18 °c 19 °c 2 % 0 % 0.1mm 53% [Wind from SW (227°)] 13mph 17mph 86% [Cloudy]
16:00 20 °c 20 °c 2 % 0 % 0.2mm 61% [Wind from SW (231°)] 13mph 17mph 79% [Showers]
19:00 19 °c 20 °c 2 % 0 % 0.4mm 62% [Wind from WSW (241°)] 13mph 17mph 72% [Showers]
22:00 17 °c 17 °c 2 % 0 % 0.4mm 84% [Wind from WSW (240°)] 11mph 15mph 77% [Showers]

Thursday 13 July☀ ▲ 5:02 21:19 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 12 °c 12 °c 0.0 mm 32 % [Wind from WSW (244°)] 4 mph 95 % [Partly Cloudy]
7:00 14 °c 15 °c 0.2 mm 58 % [Wind from WSW (238°)] 3 mph 94 % [Partly Cloudy]
13:00 20 °c 21 °c 0.3 mm 61 % [Wind from WSW (259°)] 7 mph 61 % [Partly Cloudy]
19:00 20 °c 21 °c 0.0 mm 43 % [Wind from WNW (292°)] 7 mph 61 % [Partly Cloudy]

Friday 14 July☀ ▲ 5:03 21:18 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.0 mm 3 % [Wind from WNW (303°)] 4 mph 94 % [Clear]
7:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.0 mm 2 % [Wind from NNW (339°)] 5 mph 89 % [Sunny]
13:00 25 °c 27 °c 0.0 mm 3 % [Wind from WNW (283°)] 0 mph 47 % [Sunny]
19:00 23 °c 25 °c 0.0 mm 45 % [Wind from WNW (284°)] 5 mph 52 % [Partly Cloudy]

Saturday 15 July☀ ▲ 5:04 21:17 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 16 °c 16 °c 0.0 mm 65 % [Wind from WNW (295°)] 5 mph 83 % [Partly Cloudy]
7:00 16 °c 16 °c 0.0 mm 16 % [Wind from W (272°)] 6 mph 88 % [Fair]
13:00 19 °c 20 °c 0.1 mm 36 % [Wind from WSW (258°)] 12 mph 61 % [Partly Cloudy]
19:00 18 °c 18 °c 0.2 mm 51 % [Wind from WSW (242°)] 14 mph 78 % [Partly Cloudy]

Sunday 16 July☀ ▲ 5:06 21:16 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.3 mm 84 % [Wind from W (273°)] 8 mph 83 % [Cloudy]
7:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.0 mm 20 % [Wind from W (266°)] 6 mph 82 % [Fair]
13:00 17 °c 17 °c 0.2 mm 40 % [Wind from WSW (255°)] 12 mph 58 % [Partly Cloudy]
19:00 16 °c 16 °c 0.1 mm 81 % [Wind from WSW (251°)] 14 mph 61 % [Cloudy]

Monday 17 July☀ ▲ 5:07 21:15 ▼ ☼
Time Temp Feels Rain Cloud Dir Speed RH Weather
1:00 13 °c 13 °c 0.0 mm 53 % [Wind from WSW (240°)] 12 mph 84 % [Partly Cloudy]
7:00 14 °c 14 °c 0.2 mm 71 % [Wind from WSW (256°)] 11 mph 83 % [Cloudy]
13:00 17 °c 18 °c 0.3 mm 95 % [Wind from W (268°)] 14 mph 63 % [Cloudy]
19:00 17 °c 18 °c 0.0 mm 84 % [Wind from W (274°)] 12 mph 59 % [Cloudy]

Although weeronline rates the RIAT period until the Sunday (no monday listed as yet) as a 7, they predict more rain for every day. It just can't be the actual weather is depending on the website someone is looking at, I would have thought...


Guys...it's still 10 days away....
Weather is far from stable at the moment, so any forecast more than 1-2 days ahead is rubbish. Only in the case of a stable high pressure system, one can predict more than a few days ahead. :dunno:
Frysian Flag 2018 | | Meeting de l'Air Nancy-Ochey | RIAT 2018 | Belgian Airforce Days
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby blackcat on Mon 03 Jul 2017, 3:52 pm

Metcheck updates every 6 hours and basically gathers what the charts say and averages it, No human input so that far away the charts literally flip flop from one run to the next,
The closer to the date the better the charts perform and thus metcheck,
You are going to be on one hell of a roller-coaster if you look at that this week,By Monday Metcheck will have a pretty good handle on it i would think,
Until then............ be Brave and Don't look to much. :grin:
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blackcat

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby lambo17841 on Mon 03 Jul 2017, 3:57 pm

Read the idiot who does the headlines on the weather in the Daily Express.Good for a laugh because exageration does not come into it.

John in Seaford
lambo17841

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby MC hammer on Mon 03 Jul 2017, 4:40 pm

Agreed. The only thing you can say this far out is if it's likely to be settled or unsettled. If the latter, then it will change constantly.

We had an extended family picnic meet yesterday (Sunday), which we nearly cancelled on Friday due to the forecast of rain all morning, then brighter from mid afternoon.
By Saturday, it was going to be rain in the early hours until about 9AM, then brighter by Sunday lunchtime.
So how did it turn out? Well the rain belt petered out and the cloud fragmented as it came south overnight, so there was no rain and it was sunny and hot all day.
There is only so much faith to be had in weather forecasting.
MC hammer

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby The Star of Woo on Mon 03 Jul 2017, 5:41 pm

After 'doing' airshows for more years than we care to remember, we've learnt to pack for 'all eventualities', ie from sun cream factor 30 to flippers, waterproofs to parasols, ice blocks to thermos flasks. That way, no matter what 'mummy nature' chucks at us, we're prepared.

It seems to us, the only sure way of knowing what the weather is doing is to stick ones nose out the window before venturing out in the morning!!!

One can always hope for a good year, we're due one!!!
The Star of Woo

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby mikek on Mon 03 Jul 2017, 7:05 pm

i wouldn't trust them to get yesterday's weather right.
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby Brevet Cable on Thu 06 Jul 2017, 12:57 pm

Over the last few days, evey time I've checked the BBC website's weather page they've given a different forecast for the Fairford area.
There may be thunderstorms & torrential rain/hail any day(s) between today & next Monday, or there may not.
It may rain ( light/showers ) any day between tomorrow & next Tuesday, or it may not.
It may be warm & cloudy or it may be hot & cloudless for next weekend, or it may not.

Same old same old, basically :lol:
Brevet.. Meh !!
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Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby Paul R on Sun 09 Jul 2017, 8:16 am

We were supposed to have a day of cloud and light rain showers at yeovilton yesterday and that was the bbc forecast at midnight the night before. The day was hot and sunny. I think now casting is the best bet, unless of course we do have a prominent high or low pressure system affecting our weather
Paul R

Re: Less than 4 months to go, time to worry about the W word

Postby aviodromefriend on Sun 09 Jul 2017, 8:48 am

From Swindonweb.com

Swindon Weather Forecast
5-day Swindon weather forecast

Sunday night
Partly cloudy skies. Low 54F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday
Showers possible. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the low 50s.

Monday
Considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. High 68F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Tuesday
Mainly cloudy and rainy. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the mid 50s.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

Thursday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.

Friday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the mid 50s.

Nearest Weather Observation Station: Fairford RAF
A weather forecast is a forecast and just that

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