Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby starbuck on Fri 11 Jan 2019, 8:59 am

Tommy wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-46829441

Honda are to shut production for six days in April to prepare for Brexit.

That's not a No Deal Brexit, just Brexit in general. Even in the best possible Brexit scenario, that plant will shut in April. Perhaps I'm wrong, but to me it's not great public policy to implement something which will shut such a major global factory for an entire week.


I know this is how it is being reported but are you sure that they are not just moving their annual planned maintenance shutdown from the summer which is what BMW are doing as reported a few months ago and is a common practice in manufacturing plants?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Fri 11 Jan 2019, 9:04 am

Could the negative press because there's quite a bit of bias out there?

Here's a decent pro-Brexit (depending on your outlook) story https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 89366.html
MiG_Eater

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Fri 11 Jan 2019, 12:25 pm

I’m my alternate reality. The workers at JLR in Coventry knew in May 2016 that Slovakia had asked the EU if was OK to subsidise JLR a new factory for 135Million Euros - which in Slovakia buys you the equivalent of a £0.5 Billion factory in the U.K.
They decided that voting to Leave the U.K. might give them a fighting chance in the future, but JLR and the EU had decided ( or looked likely to decide ) that it was better to create wealth in Slovakia than keep jobs in Coventry if they Remained. The jobs were doomed as JLR was looking like leaving Coventry anyway and moving production to a poorer part of the EU ( with EU blessing ).

I know this is fantasy and in the real world the people of Coventry are all thick racists who’s blind stupidity has lead to job losses.
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Fri 11 Jan 2019, 12:46 pm

I genuinely believe that one of the EU's goals is to support business by exploiting cheap labour from eastern Europe.

Undeniably there are benefits to being a member state to some people - but I truly believe the working classes suffer because of it, and the JLR example is a fine one.

In any case, I don't think anything is going to change with regard to the EU/UK relationship in the short term anyway... so it's all academic!
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby boff180 on Fri 11 Jan 2019, 7:48 pm

ericbee123 wrote:I’m my alternate reality. The workers at JLR in Coventry knew in May 2016 that Slovakia had asked the EU if was OK to subsidise JLR a new factory for 135Million Euros - which in Slovakia buys you the equivalent of a £0.5 Billion factory in the U.K.
They decided that voting to Leave the U.K. might give them a fighting chance in the future, but JLR and the EU had decided ( or looked likely to decide ) that it was better to create wealth in Slovakia than keep jobs in Coventry if they Remained. The jobs were doomed as JLR was looking like leaving Coventry anyway and moving production to a poorer part of the EU ( with EU blessing ).

I know this is fantasy and in the real world the people of Coventry are all thick racists who’s blind stupidity has lead to job losses.


Fantasy seems to be the appropriate word for your post.

  1. The production line being moved to Slovakia is from Solihull, not Coventry.
  2. The permanently employed workers that are on the production line that is moving to Slovakia are not being made compulsorily redundant, the production line is being moved to allow for new production lines to be installed for new products - particularly for electric powered vehicles - the plant is at capacity. The job losses from this move are of agency staff in the most part.
  3. If what you said was remotely true they wouldn't have announced a new electric car battery production facility at Hams Hall this week and wouldn't be pressing forward with a previously announced new component logisitics hub adjacent to the Solihull plant.
  4. The jobs being lost are leadership and management jobs in the most part and, if local reports are true, the majority of the cut will fall in Coventry and will be office based from the HQ - these are the jobs that are being lost partly due to Brexit.... they're not being relocated to another country, they are being cut. Full stop.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 2:02 am

Boff180. That was a well thought out reply and wasn’t “overhyped scary Brexit is to blame, we’re all doomed” enough. ( patronising ? - wasn’t meant to be - sorry )

My post was fantasy and full of inaccuracies.

Talking about Brexit and cars ( or not ).

The BBC has an article about job losses at Ford and as Ford appear to have not blamed Brexit for the job losses, it’s not as doom laden as usual.

The BBC still managed to get the last word on the article to be “Brexit” though !!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46842781
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 7:38 am

I actually fall the other side of this JLR thing to most people saying it's another fault from Brexit. Their blame on Brexit is vague and pretty wishy-washy as is their blame on the slump in diesel sales and lower sales in China. Not to say that Brexit doesn't have or hasn't had an impact, but I don't know if it's sufficient just to say "cos Brexit" or "cos China" when there are also a number of other factors.

And I think the Slovakia plant was even earlier than two months before the referendum, I recall stuff was being said about it back in 2015.

That said, I also can't really think of why JLR would arbitrarily blame Brexit for no reason, either.

As with most things, it's probably a bit in between. It's silly to say it has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, and equally silly to say it's entirely because of Brexit. Most likely it's a number of reasons swirling about, of which Brexit is a component.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 8:21 am

Tommy wrote:As with most things, it's probably a bit in between. It's silly to say it has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit, and equally silly to say it's entirely because of Brexit. Most likely it's a number of reasons swirling about, of which Brexit is a component.


Correct. Any business leader that isn't preparing for a change is not doing their job. There will be much more change to come as businesses align themselves with the new regulatory framework, whatever that may be.

As for the automotive industry in general, irrespective of Brexit there is change coming. This is due to several factors. The industry has expanded to cope with demand but that demand is diminishing. There are still opportunities in developing economies such as India and China but as a whole, engineering and consumption maturity has led to the industry reaching saturation point in certain territories. As automation and electrification are introduced over the next decade the industry will change further still. My hypothesis is that the industry could contract by c.50% if its nature changes to a service industry from consumer led as it currently is. A lot of the changes we are seeing with these global companies is to align themselves with a skill base and market access. The education levels which gave the UK an advantage previously have diminished significantly in recent times, our market is saturated and our workforce expensive. Why stay? Reasons include continued access to a market, continuity of workforce, regulatory advantage and subsidies by governments via grants. The UK currently can't change the regulatory side and is constrained to a degree on the grant side. You are seeing the result of rational business decisions to reduce a cost base and access emerging markets to minimise the impact of the changing industry. The crux of this is that the car companies will still keep a presence in the UK but incresingly they will rebalance operations to suit the global market.

I could keep going but will leave you with this thought; all the same arguments for the UK can be applied to Germany and its economy is far more reliant on the automotive sector. What will happen to the German economy if the automotive sector contracts and a local economy such as the UK could provide an advantageous regulatory framework and generous industry grants?

Ericbee123 wrote:The BBC still managed to get the last word on the article to be “Brexit” though !!


Well spotted. When you start looking, these techniques are used in all forms of media. The only way to break the spell is to be educated in the tactics being employed.
verreli

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 2:52 pm

Jamie Oliver did it with the closure of his restaurants and it's a very easy scapegoat. Global economics is very, very complex with mulitple trends constantly pushing and pulling on the supply and demand curves, some short term, some long . To 100% blame Brexit for bad news re downturns, closures, relocations etc is to willfully ignore other factors.

Some remainers seem happy to ignore the complex scenario and lay the blame 100% at Brexit and this is fuelled by simplistic PR from firms who are happy to play the Brexit card when they know better than anyone regarding the muliple factors that contribute to this IMHO. I'm not for one minute saying that Brexit is not a factor but it's not the only factor.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby tankbuster on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 3:19 pm

pbeardmore wrote:Jamie Oliver did it with the closure of his restaurants and it's a very easy scapegoat. Global economics is very, very complex with mulitple trends constantly pushing and pulling on the supply and demand curves, some short term, some long . To 100% blame Brexit for bad news re downturns, closures, relocations etc is to willfully ignore other factors.

Some remainers seem happy to ignore the complex scenario and lay the blame 100% at Brexit and this is fuelled by simplistic PR from firms who are happy to play the Brexit card when they know better than anyone regarding the muliple factors that contribute to this IMHO. I'm not for one minute saying that Brexit is not a factor but it's not the only factor.


Has here really been any business that has taken a recent action and laid the blame 100% on Brexit? I don't think so. I think uncertainty over Brexit may be a much bigger factor than Brexit itself given that we still don't know what Brexit means.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 3:55 pm

pbeardmore wrote:

Some remainers seem happy to ignore the complex scenario and lay the blame 100% at Brexit


They're idiots. And at the same time plenty of Brexiteers immediately shout "conspiracy" , or "lies", or frantically try and Google themselves into absolving all of the effects of Brexit at all. They're also idiots.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 4:00 pm

vandal wrote:https://news.sky.com/story/man-arrested-over-alleged-incident-involving-anna-soubry-mp-11605457

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/j ... id=spartan


Brexiteers responses to the above:

"affront to free speech"
"what about JRM's accostees"

The latter is legitimate, the former not.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 5:08 pm

I voted Remain, but I’m not a Remaoner. I am also not a Brexiteer.

I spoke to 2 Croatian lads in a bar in Stuttgart before the referendum and told them the U.K. will vote to Leave. When they asked me why, to my eternal shame I said “well stupid people are getting to vote as well”

I didn’t think it would be that close to be honest, living in a 70/30 Leave voting area.

I didn’t know anyone in my town who was voting Remain and the only other Remainers were from my workplace in another town (also a 70/30 Leave area as it happens).

I would be happy if we had a second referendum, but I don’t think Remain will win unless they fix the question so they can’t lose this time.

I would be happy if we Remain - it’s what I voted for.

I will be happy if we go with Mrs May’s Deal , I will also be happy if we go with No Deal.

After exercising my right to vote in the referendum and losing that vote, I am along for the ride now whichever way we go as it looks like I’m on of the tens of millions of people along for the ride now.

I just wish we would decide which option we doing, as it’s really silly now !!

I can see the pros and cons of all the options, whichever option happens we have to pull together and make it work.

I won’t stand by and listen to lies and big “IF”s , being presented as facts as some of them are downright untruths.

I also don’t accept that only thick , old racists voted Leave - as the figures don’t show this as NO demographic voted 100% either way. Some Scots voted Leave, some clever people voted Leave, some old people voted Remain, some young people voted Leave.

I can’t believe we are days away from Leaving and we still don’t know how we are leaving, or if we are in fact staying.
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 5:58 pm

ericbee123 wrote:
After exercising my right to vote in the referendum and losing that vote, I am along for the ride now whichever way we go as it looks like I’m on of the tens of millions of people along for the ride now.



No, you're absolutely not. Even people who voted for it are not. We don't just vote and then give those politicians carte blanche.

Given that we already had a referendum on Europe, that same logic dictates that we should never have had one in 2016.

And even if you disagree, how is it remotely democratic that people who couldn't vote, but have since turned of voting age are "along for the ride"?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 6:24 pm

ericbee123 wrote:I can’t believe we are days away from Leaving and we still don’t know how we are leaving, or if we are in fact staying.


It's certainly been an eye opener. I naively thought that the referendum would be the end. The result implemented without question. I had not anticipated how committed some were to the EU superstate project. Ultimately we all have to be governed by someone or something. Each structure has its merits and drawbacks and benefits some more than others. That some would happily overturn a democratic decision, the basis of the constitutional fabric of the UK shows how far their ideology runs. What they are saying is that the UK, perhaps the most successful nation on the planet which enjoys an enviable standard of living has got its governance wrong and would be better off living by rules made offshore. i.e. they don't believe in the UK as an entity.

What is clear to me now is that 31 March 2019 is not the end. If we get a clean Brexit, some will continue to lobby and manipulate policy to align us with the EU so we can return to the fold at a later date. If we remain, I predict a new credible party will arise which will ultimately replace the conservative party and deliver the break from the EU that millions voted for. Brexit was about far more than simple economics. It was about identity and you just have to look at Scotland and Ireland to understand how deep that runs and how far some will go to preserve it.
verreli

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 7:54 pm

The idea re those of voting age now but were too young to vote on the day is another huge red herring from the remainers. Any vote within any democracy has to have a cut off date re age and, by definition, those too young to vote will be effected by the policy that has been voted for.

If we have a second vote (looking more likely), there will be another trenche of voters too young to vote. What about them? This applies to any vote. I have never seen this argument applied to any vote before but 10 out of 10 for imaginative reasons from some remainers why the original vote was unfair. Does anyone think this objection would have been raised if we had voted to remain?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby McG on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 8:37 pm

pbeardmore wrote:The idea re those of voting age now but were too young to vote on the day is another huge red herring from the remainers.


It was argued at the time that the voting age for the referendum should have been lowered to 16. This would have been in line with the Scottish referendum in 2014, so there was a recent precedent.

David Cameron was responsible for setting the T&C’s for the referendum -

Over 18’s only
No EU nationals living in UK who paid taxes and were eligible to vote in parliamentary elections
No British expats who had lived in EU for more than 15 years

Cameron knew that all 3 of these groups would likely vote heavily for remain - hence why they were excluded.
McG

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby McG on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 8:50 pm

verreli wrote:I naively thought that the referendum would be the end. The result implemented without question.


The referendum was always going to be the beginning. It didn’t tell the government how to leave the EU or what the future trading and political relationship with the EU should be - it just said we should leave.

Then we had Theresa May rushing at the first opportunity to invoke Article 50 without any sort of plan and giving away whatever leaverage the referendum result would have given her in meetings with the rest of the EU.

If anyone is to blame for the state we are in now it is Theresa May and David Cameron.
McG

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 9:10 pm

pbeardmore wrote:Does anyone think this objection would have been raised if we had voted to remain?


Yes, by Leavers, but given that young people are far more likely to vote to remain, it would be far less powerful.

You raise fair points, PB, but only insofar as they prove that referendums are really, really stupid. They have always been stupid, and there's a reason they aren't the de rigueur system of politics in this, or a great many other countries.

pbeardmore wrote:Any vote within any democracy has to have a cut off date re age and, by definition, those too young to vote will be effected by the policy that has been voted for.


No it doesn't, because in the regular course of things, another vote comes along every 5 years, plus ancillary votes like council elections, by-elections and what have you in between.

Imagine if we voted instead 2016 for a Tory or a Labour government, and then that was it. We were along for the ride. Bugger off if you've changed your mind, or, more crucially, those who promised everything are actually pretty poo at their jobs. That's the vote and there's no going back on it. It would be "undemocratic". So we're stuck with a Tory or Labour government for decades. When looked at through that prism, that's how dictatorships are formed.

Referendums are stupid, they aren't really that democratic, and are especially open to abuse. All the referendum said was that we would "leave the European Union" it didn't say how, or when. Someone calling for a no deal Brexit (no such thing as a "clean Brexit") as mandated by the referendum has just as much credence as someone who says "we should leave the EU by the year 2,100" (exaggerating to make the point). Each could be mandated from the simple referendum in 2016.

I'm not sure I support another referendum. 2016 was a terrible year, regardless of the result we plunged to embarrassing levels of tribalism, hatred, bigotry, fear, patronising reports and news conferences, law breaking, rule breaking, and a politician was assassinated. I really don't think it's worth going back to that.

Much more satisfactory would be, IMO, to admit that this is a bad idea, revoke Article 50, and if Brexit is still mandated, then to discuss our departure clearly, openly, with a rational head, without a nonsense two year deadline hanging over our heads. If and when we are ready to leave, send the letter, and use that two years for very final, previously agreed and formalised, preparations, "t"s to be crossed, and "i"s to be dotted.

Article 50, and our unilateral right of when to employ it, was one of Theresa May's only ace cards. She chucked it away without a second thought. The European Courts have ruled that she gets a rare second roll of the dice. I think, after a disastrous first roll, she, or at least the country, should take it.

Regardless of where you stand, the current crop of British politicians are not up to delivering the Brexit anyone voted for, across any party. I'd rather we took our time, did it properly, listened and talked to each other, and left on the basis of a national majority on much more detail than "remain" or "leave".

I've been saying it for years - beware simple answers to complex problems. Brexit is the very epitome of that.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 9:50 pm

Over 18’s only - What is the reason under 18's are more likely to vote that way? Is it all their life experience or some other reason?

No EU nationals living in UK who paid taxes and were eligible to vote in parliamentary elections. - A nation state isn't a shop. It's about far more than paying for a vote. If they were committed to our country they would become citizens and with it the right to a vote.

No British expats who had lived in EU for more than 15 years. - They have left the UK to live in and contribute to another state. They are no longer committed to the development of our country and have no vested interest in making it better for the people living in it.

Cameron knew that all 3 of these groups would likely vote heavily for remain - hence why they were excluded. - Nonsense. Cameron is a liberal globalist who made a miscalculation.
verreli

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ExVulcanGC on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 10:09 pm

All the referendum said was that we would "leave the European Union" it didn't say how, or when.


It did not really need to say any more as the remain and leave campaigns explained it if one really listened, I think you will find that a lot of people on the remain side did not want to hear that.
The link below from May, but prior to, and post the referendum result, both leave and remain politicians stated quite clearly that leaving meant leaving the single market and customs union, and the 'when' is two years after Article 50 is issued, I cannot believe that two years later that this misnomer is still being peddled about.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCvGK8dpTqg

Much more satisfactory would be, IMO, to admit that this is a bad idea, revoke Article 50


I think you might be surprised at how many who are likely to disagree with Brexit being a bad idea, as you will find out with any party who puts revoking article 50 in their manifesto at the next GE.

Regardless of where you stand, the current crop of British politicians are not up to delivering the Brexit anyone voted for, across any party.


Agree with that wholeheartedly, probably because they are predominately remain.
ExVulcanGC

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Sat 12 Jan 2019, 10:28 pm

Tommy wrote:Referendums are stupid, they aren't really that democratic, and are especially open to abuse.
Referendums are the most democratic form of governance. The reason they aren't used often is because those in power don't always get the result they want which is more than inconvenient for them. The only country that uses them on a regular basis is Switzerland. Switzerland is a successful country. An example where things didn't go to plan there is when the govt chose Gripen and the people rejected the decision. Back to the drawing board for the govt but it wasn't the end of the world and the people got what the wanted, right or wrong. That's democracy. As for being open to abuse, the question can be set specifically to influence the result but how is that any different to a bunch of elected officials making decisions that are not the will of the people. Isn't that a just nanny state or worse, a dictatorship?

Tommy wrote:The European Courts have ruled that she gets a rare second roll of the dice.
That's the point. A decision on a sovereign nation being made overseas means that it isn't a sovereign nation. Our sovereignty was lost without a debate or a choice by the people. i.e. effectively we became a dictatorship, allbeit we were able to vote who got to dictate us. Ironic that they chose to give away the power that we gave them. As suggested in my previous post, where we are ruled is just a choice. We have to be ruled by someone, whether it is locally or somewhere else. If we feel that having our rules made overseas is in our interest lets go for it but why choose the EU? The EU will be a minor player in the future world and because of the language and cultural issues, never fully harmonious. Why not be the 51st state of the USA? Or alternatively align to China or India which will become the worlds leading economies in the coming years?
verreli

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Sun 13 Jan 2019, 7:36 am

verreli wrote:The only country that uses them on a regular basis is Switzerland. Switzerland is a successful country. An example where things didn't go to plan there is when the govt chose Gripen and the people rejected the decision. Back to the drawing board for the govt but it wasn't the end of the world and the people got what the wanted, right or wrong.


And now Switzerland now has no (at the moment) fighter replacement for its F-5Es, the costly procurement and evaluation process was a waste of public money, and they spent even more money re-launching the competition again in July with bids due around about now, including from Saab, so they might end up with the Gripen again, and if that happens all they did spend money and delay the process.

And the thing you left out about that Swiss fighter procurement example is thst they have committed to hold a second referendum on it.

The only way Switzerland manages to do it is that even they recognise that referendums are not some snapshot in time that once they've voted, that's it.

Of this referendum people are saying that "that's it, we voted, respect the vote and on we go for ever. No second vote now that we know the facts" To say it is "undemocratic" to have another vote on something is illogical to the point of being perverse.

It's just illogical. What, we can't complain about the inadequacy of those in government because "we voted them in. Respect the result. Don't moan" until the next general election comes around? It doesn't work like that. We ask questions, we hold them to account, and we make our views felt.

And again, even if people disagree, then if in their minds a second vote is undemocratic, how was the 2016 referendum democratic, given that we already voted to remain prior to that? Farage and Co. didn't give a hoot about the "will of the people" then, did he.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Sun 13 Jan 2019, 7:58 am

verreli wrote:
Tommy wrote:The European Courts have ruled that she gets a rare second roll of the dice.
That's the point. A decision on a sovereign nation being made overseas means that it isn't a sovereign nation.


That's not how the ECJ works. Forgive the boring law guff but this matters.

We have a Supreme Court in this country. The clue is in the name. It is Supreme. It's the highest court in the land, and there is no higher court in which to appeal something. Remember Gina Miller's case in 2016/17 saying that parliament should have a vote on the deal (thank god for that looking at the situation now) that Theresa May absolutely ballsed? Was one of her first proper Brexit stumbles. That stayed with the Supreme Court because it was a UK issue.

The *only* way a case gets to the ECJ is if the higher courts in a home nation believe they have a matter of European Union law to decide on, and they need the European Union to help tell them what they meant by said law.

England and Wales courts do exactly the same with domestic legislation.

Article 50 is part of a European Union treaty, and therefore, because it said nothing about revocation, our courts referred the question to the EU to ask them what it meant.

The ECJ made a ruling on what it meant, and that ruling stands because it was requested by our courts.

Nothing to do with sovrignty. We are signed up to an international treaty. We asked the international consortium who's treaty it is what a part of it means.

Courts can only refer matters of EU law to the ECJ. Interpretation of law in England and Wales remains in England and Wales.

So why do we have the ECJ? Why couldn't we just decide on what Article 50 meant? Because another country could decide it means something else, and another country say it meant something else again, so the ECJ is a collection of judges from all member states, who collectively decide what it means for everyone. That way it's fair. And we're not bound by the ruling of interpretation of the Austrian Supreme Court. Which, if that were the case, *would* be a loss of sovrignty.

And if Austrian courts can't do it because it would be unfair on us, then we also can't do the same, because it would bee unfair on the rest of the EU.

verreli wrote:i.e. effectively we became a dictatorship, allbeit we were able to vote who got to dictate us.


So, not a dictatorship, then.
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