Should we stay or should we go now?

Should the UK leave the EU

Yes
145
56%
No
114
44%
 
Total votes : 259

Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby Tommy on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 11:11 am

I saw the Scottish referrendum mentioned, and I recall a point I think I tweeted back in 2014:

Is there not an element of hypocrisy for those that campaigned (very hard and very voraciously) for Scotland to remain part of the UK, citing trade, political standing, dismissing arguments that Scottish laws are made in Westminster etc, who are now campaigning (very hard and very voraciously) for the UK to leave the EU for precisely the same reasons?
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby Trenchard on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 11:13 am

I much rather we spent the 12 billion (net) a year we give to the EU on supporting this country and it's infrastructure - welfare, hospitals, schools etc.

Why trust an organisation who is that financially inept they can't even agree to sign off on their own budgets.

My mother and father exercised their right to join/not join the European Economic Community. Over there years career politicians have dragged us into something we never agreed to, a United States of Europe where all men are equal but some are more equal than others Mein Herr/Madame?

We need not Europe for security, they won't stop buying from us overnight, and perhaps we'll be able to support our manufacturers, rather than a Brussels bureaucrat telling us we have to buy German - 'It's more expensive, and you'll lose jobs, but it's good for you'

In the words of dragons den 'I'm out'
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby DerekF on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 11:49 am

The facts about the budget sign-off. Not great but not as bad as you would be lead to believe.

https://fullfact.org/europe/has-eu-budget-been-rejected-auditors-past-18-years

/
Trenchard wrote:a Brussels bureaucrat telling us we have to buy German


Really?

As far as the UK budget contribution is concerned, presumably it is realized that we do get a large amount of EU funding for various projects. These tend to benefit the poorer areas of the UK though.

The main problem for the IN campaign is getting to the truth through a mire of Daily Mail/Express type lies about straight bananas, "faceless bureaucrats" and migrants stealing our jobs/money/children etc.

A question to those who put forward the "faceless Brussels bureaucrats" argument. Who do you think drafts UK legislation? That's right, unelected faceless Westminster bureaucrats. Difference? Idon't think so.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby speedbird2639 on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 12:02 pm

I think the turn out in the referendum is likely to be low.

A low turn out will be biased towards the older end of the scale.

Older people tend to gravitate towards a more right wing position and tend to use more 'established' news outlets such as broadsheet type newspapers rather than newer online outlets for example.

Most people who vote won't have read beyond the headlines as to whether 'in' or 'out' is better.

Based on the above I suggest that prior to the day all the media types will be doing interviews with trendy young people in city centres who will all say they are going to vote to stay in. The youngsters will be outvoted by the blue rinse brigade who love Boris et al and so when the vote is announced it will be like the GE where all the Mori type polls will have predicted a 'stay in' win and it will turn out to be a landslide for 'leave'.

My concern is what mechanism is there if we vote to leave to force DC and the Govt to act upon it? Does there have to be a vote in Parliament? What if the MPs vote to defy the people and stay in? Does anyone on here know what the next move would be after a leave win?
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby TKK 140 on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 12:18 pm

Pen Pusher wrote:
boff180 wrote:Personally id rather believe a study by someone such as LSE rather than anything either sides proponents say.

If you pay them enough they'll say what you want.

From Wiki
In August 2015, it was revealed that the university was paid approximately £40,000 for a "glowing report" for Camila Batmanghelidjh's scandal-hit charity, Kids Company. The study was used by Batmanghelidjh to prove that the charity provided good value for money and was well managed. However, the university did not disclose that the study was funded by the charity and claims made by the report have since been discredited.


Brian


Brian,
Having been involved with some I have first hand experience of how easily they can be swung, one way or the other and if anyone thinks there is a "free market" they really do need to "wise up". In fact Our exports to the EU are in decline.

Andy
In a EU free UK we can lobby our MP's for a 10% reduction in VAT and the other 10% here for much need good causes. It's an example of what could be.

Tommy - No 5 in the world as quoted on Andrew Marr Show today and Wikipedia. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... P_(nominal)
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby TKK 140 on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 12:30 pm

Tommy wrote:
TKK 140 wrote:Andy,
Don't believe it, 5th biggest economy in the world! Some will have noticed we have been in Economic difficulties for a few years now. "Double economic trouble" really? think not.

On the bright side we could look forward to VAT being abolished as that came into fund the Common Market, apparently! As a reminder its 20% currently.

Academic papers such as the one quoted do need to be taken with a very large pinch of salt.

Having been unable to vote on membership of the EU rather than the common market we joined, It is now time belatedly for the nation to decide.

We can thrive outside the EU we just need to have confidence, it might well be tough to start, but this is about principle: who governs the UK.


Some widely-held points, but some questions I have in response... is it not the case that we're currently the 5th biggest economy in the world (if you say - I haven't researched that yet) because of the trade we've enjoyed by the EU?

Re. VAT - it may have been introduced to assist the common market, but I doubt, very seriously, that our government will reduce VAT because we have left the EU. On the contrary, if we find ourselves suddenly in a more difficult trade position, then surely there would be increases in tax to fill the deficit, subsidies and other trade benefits which cease after leaving the EU?

Andy just produced an academic paper, that is clear evidence on what might happen, more robust than the "I think" position, anyway. You can't just say that they "need to be taken with a large pinch of salt" without reason or evidence to refute said articles, just because they don't align with your views.

Again "we can thrive outside of the EU, we just need to be confident..." - what evidence have you seen of this? We may be "ok" outside of the EU, but I have yet to see any evidence or assessment at all that suggests that we will "thrive" outside of the trading bloc.

The main argument for leaving is one of "principle". The issue some might have is this -

"Principle" only gets you so far. "Principle" doesn't stabilise the economy, progress our trading standing, or create and maintain jobs. The only thing "principle" does is make us feel proud of ourselves in the short run. The argument, therefore, is do we really want to substantially reduce/negatively affect 60% of our export trade on a matter of short-term "principle"?

I think it is acknowledged and common ground that there will be a negative impact (the extent and duration of which is up for debate, it seems) from leaving the EU. At least in the short term. I have yet to see anyone from the "out" camp make any efforts of substance to establish non-EU trade links and treaties which will mitigate this negative impact. It's easy for Farage (incidentally, an unelected politician attempting to dictate the course and future of this country - not a very good advertisement that we are one of the world's best democracies on our own, PB) and co to huff and puff about the issue, but what have they done to ensure that we mitigate these impacts? I haven't seen them on any trade missions, I haven't seen a political or trade incentive pushed to non-EU countries, I haven't seen anything at all to suggest that the high-profile members of the "out" camp are making efforts to secure trade and political alliance anywhere above what the UK is already doing, and has done for some years.

I count myself as undecided on this. Though I have just (attempted to, at any rate) picked holes in someone's "leave" argument from the top of my head, I'm open to persuasion either way. Personally, I don't think it is as large an issue as we have been told it is by politicians and the media. It's a current talking point. Farage and Tory back-benchers have made their names out of this, the Daily Express is owned and run by someone who funds UKIP as a party, and the Daily Mail is an outrage-generating machine who saw it as an easy target. I think we have much, much larger issues than the EU to worry about at the moment. I will definitely be voting on it, though, as it's important for democracy, as Iain rightly says.

However, I recognise that it is always far easier to argue and pick holes, than to be open to persuasion. So, to misuse court terminology, those wishing for us to leave have brought the case, they have to demonstrate why we should. As such, I'm an open vote - can someone from the "vote leave" camp persuade me that we should leave, instead of just arguing about it?

pbeardmore wrote:"There will be nothing to stop those in power changing laws to suit their backers"
so we have to be in Europe because , without it, the UK is not a democracy and we need Europe to protect us from our own Parliament? We have one of the oldest and best established Parliamentary democracies in the World, how did the "common man" survive before we entered the EU? This is a good example of a complete loss if faith concerning our ability to effectively and fairly run our own affairs.


Well, (just as an example) Nigel Farage has been huffing and puffing about this, and I think can safely be said is the principle person that has brought this issue to the fore and continues to hammer it home. Farage - a politician that has never been elected, funded by the owner of a huge media outlet that acts as his propaganda mouthpiece, attempting to dictate the future of the UK both politically and economically. It's not exactly a beacon of spotlessness for our democracy...


M'mm there are many reasons for either side to decide which way to vote which we can't really discuss fully in a blog.
For me it's nought to do with Farage, but two parliaments and one with much lower election turnouts is not democracy or a good use of taxes.

Could it be that you have decided to stay even if you don't realise it yet? Which is fair enough in itself.
Last edited by TKK 140 on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby boff180 on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 1:11 pm

talking of scare mongering....

Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby KyleG on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 3:16 pm

Image

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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby Brevet Cable on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 3:50 pm

Kyle....you can now add Boris Johnson to that list.
Nuff said.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby pbeardmore on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 4:40 pm

"attempting to dictate the future of the UK both politically and economically"

Not true, his goal has been to give us a chance of dictating the future of the UK, its our decision, not his
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby TKK 140 on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 5:00 pm

[quote="KyleG"

And so it decends into personal attacks already :handbag:
TKK 140

Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby Tommy on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 5:01 pm

pbeardmore wrote:"attempting to dictate the future of the UK both politically and economically"

Not true, his goal has been to give us a chance of dictating the future of the UK, its our decision, not his


Disagree. His goal has been for the UK to leave the EU. His only mechanism to bring him within a chance of achieving that is to force the issue into the fore, as he has done, and force a vote on the issue.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby Wissam24 on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 5:38 pm

DerekF wrote:The facts about the budget sign-off. Not great but not as bad as you would be lead to believe.

https://fullfact.org/europe/has-eu-budget-been-rejected-auditors-past-18-years

/
Trenchard wrote:a Brussels bureaucrat telling us we have to buy German


Really?

As far as the UK budget contribution is concerned, presumably it is realized that we do get a large amount of EU funding for various projects. These tend to benefit the poorer areas of the UK though.

The main problem for the IN campaign is getting to the truth through a mire of Daily Mail/Express type lies about straight bananas, "faceless bureaucrats" and migrants stealing our jobs/money/children etc.

A question to those who put forward the "faceless Brussels bureaucrats" argument. Who do you think drafts UK legislation? That's right, unelected faceless Westminster bureaucrats. Difference? Idon't think so.


Ask Wales, Cornwall or Scotland whether they think we should leave the EU...it's always the places that don't gain the benefits as much that want to leave. Incredibly selfish. Lots of parts of this country rely very heavily on subsidies and money from the EU.

Good arguments have been made already in this thread and elsewhere and I'd only be repeating it, but the shortsightedness when it comes to the fact that areas in this country literally depend on the EU for local economies does my head in. Amazing how that never gets reported in the rags, isn't it?
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby DerekF on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 6:09 pm

TKK 140 wrote:[quote="KyleG"

And so it decends into personal attacks already :handbag:


It was actually a few posts before where I called IDS "odious" . I'm not sure that's as much a personal attack as a statement of fact.

For decent right-thinking (as in correct not wing) people, oaf Boris Johnson getting involved can only be good for the IN campaign. It's only a matter of time before he makes some monumental gaffe or other.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby TKK 140 on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 6:44 pm

DerekF wrote:
TKK 140 wrote:[quote="KyleG"

And so it decends into personal attacks already :handbag:


It was actually a few posts before where I called IDS "odious" . I'm not sure that's as much a personal attack as a statement of fact.

For decent right-thinking (as in correct not wing) people, oaf Boris Johnson getting involved can only be good for the IN campaign. It's only a matter of time before he makes some monumental gaffe or other.





Not sure "right thinking" decent people refer to others as oafs. :pinkwafer:
TKK 140

Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby Brevet Cable on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 7:06 pm

Wissam24 wrote:Ask Wales, Cornwall or Scotland whether they think we should leave the EU...it's always the places that don't gain the benefits as much that want to leave. Incredibly selfish. Lots of parts of this country rely very heavily on subsidies and money from the EU

Rightly or wrongly , Wales , Scotland & the West Country see themselves as receiving fairer treatment from the EU than they do from the UK Government.
Regarding the subsidies , a lot of it is down to using the systems in place to your advantage , which is something many other Countries within the EU have done in the past. Ironically , it was the lack of proper checks & balances within the EU that led to too much in subsidies being given to the wrong Countries.

As for the supposed EU regulations which some disagree with , in many cases the blame cannot be laid at the EU's door.......the EU proposes a policy then leaves it down to the individual Governments how they implement it. It's been a constant source of bemusement with some other Countries ( France in particular ) that the UK will take a draught proposal and implement it in the harshest form possible , whereas they would usually just play lip-service to it.

The scare tactic by the 'Outers' concerning UK border controls......they seem not to have noticed that a number of Countries within the EU ( and others who are Schengen signatories - which the UK isn't ) have already unilaterally re-imposed border controls over the last few weeks.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby DerekF on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 7:54 pm

Or use pink wafer smilies.

I think oaf is accurate and a little bit tame frankly.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby FarnboroJohn on Sun 21 Feb 2016, 8:45 pm

speedbird2639 wrote:I think the turn out in the referendum is likely to be low.

A low turn out will be biased towards the older end of the scale.

Older people tend to gravitate towards a more right wing position and tend to use more 'established' news outlets such as broadsheet type newspapers rather than newer online outlets for example.

Most people who vote won't have read beyond the headlines as to whether 'in' or 'out' is better.

Based on the above I suggest that prior to the day all the media types will be doing interviews with trendy young people in city centres who will all say they are going to vote to stay in. The youngsters will be outvoted by the blue rinse brigade who love Boris et al and so when the vote is announced it will be like the GE where all the Mori type polls will have predicted a 'stay in' win and it will turn out to be a landslide for 'leave'.

My concern is what mechanism is there if we vote to leave to force DC and the Govt to act upon it? Does there have to be a vote in Parliament? What if the MPs vote to defy the people and stay in? Does anyone on here know what the next move would be after a leave win?


I'm more than slightly confused as in my fifties I now appear to be categorised as young and trendy due to my intention to vote "IN" - and I will be there even if there is a hurricane blowing.

However the answer to the final question is obvious: faceless Whitehall bureaucrats will draft legislation to do the bidding of the elected Government. Contra some suggestions that is all they ever do when it comes to drafting legislation: it is surely obvious to everybody that any sneaky attempts to slip non-governmental ideas into policy will be met with "wrong answer, show again" before the documents even reach Parliamentary scrutiny. Once drafted to the satisfaction of the Government, the legislation will be introduced via Act of Parliament. And after June they will have over three years to sort it, hardly challenging.

John
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby pbeardmore on Mon 22 Feb 2016, 10:05 am

"faceless Whitehall bureaucrats"

as apposed to the Brussels bureaucrats who have faces?
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby stratocaster on Mon 22 Feb 2016, 10:53 am

If we leave, will all the remain folks leave the UK and head in their droves to the E.U? No,I thought not!
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby broadstairs on Mon 22 Feb 2016, 11:05 am

I remember voting in the previous referendum and I voted yes because at that time it was all about trade and NOT a United States of Europe. This time I will be voting to leave mainly because the EU is not now what it was when we entered and I dont want to live in a country where our parliament is subservient to faceless bureaucrats in Brussels and our laws can be overturned by the EU. If Cameron had really negotiated a better deal for the UK which was guaranteed to enacted and where our parliament was only answerable to the UK population and our own Supreme Court plus we had an exclusive right to say who entered our country then I might have voted Yes. This deal is not worth the paper it is written on as it can be thrown away or altered by the EU Parliament or the Commission, the fact that the other leaders agreed means nothing, just wait and see what happens if the referendum goes Cameron's way I think within days or perhaps a month or so the whole deal will be re-written by the EU. It needed a Treaty change to ensure the agreement survived and he has not got that.

I dont believe that if we leave all the worthwhile legislation about workers rights and the environment will be thrown away, I also dont think we are safer in the EU than we would be out of it, in fact since we would control our own borders we could keep out convicted criminals from the EU and deport those we already have in our prisons the ordinary folk would be safer. Unless Jeremy Corbin has his way (unlikely) we will still have our own nuclear deterrent. As to what the USA thinks we should do it's nothing to do with them and they should keep their noses out of it the only reason they want us in is for their own benefit not ours.

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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby DerekF on Mon 22 Feb 2016, 11:12 am

stratocaster wrote:If we leave, will all the remain folks leave the UK and head in their droves to the E.U? No,I thought not!

Not sure what you mean. Do you mean those that vote to stay in the EU should move to mainland Europe if the vote is to leave the EU? Why would that happen? Being British isn't predicated on whether you think we should leave the EU or not.

As previously mentioned, the odious Ian Duncan Smith suggested that terror attacks would be more likely in the EU. He seems to have conveniently forgotten that the 7/7 terrorist were UK citizens.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby AlexC on Mon 22 Feb 2016, 11:29 am

As far as the minimum voting age is concerned, I'd say that 18 is about right. I might have dreaming, but I thought that I saw a proposal that people over 65 should be banned from voting?!
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby ericbee123 on Mon 22 Feb 2016, 11:31 am

Just wait until The Sun gets on the Out side :

Vote OUT of Europe and we will get Cheap Booze and Fags when we go on holiday to Spain with the re-introduction of Duty Free - Get your "I Voted Out" card, free in tomorrow's Sun, stamped at a polling station on voting day to claim your free £ 1 bet at William Hills and your free "Bog Off EU" paper hat from the newsagents.
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.
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Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

Postby boff180 on Mon 22 Feb 2016, 11:42 am

broadstairs wrote:. It needed a Treaty change to ensure the agreement survived and he has not got that.


Part of the deal includes a new treaty to cement the agreement.

in fact since we would control our own borders we could keep out convicted criminals from the EU


Assuming we have access to criminal intelligence data from the EU once have left, right now we do.

As to what the USA thinks we should do it's nothing to do with them and they should keep their noses out of it the only reason they want us in is for their own benefit not ours.


A Daily Mail response if I have ever read one. Have you read what the US have said. It's nothing to do with the "special relationship".

The US is our largest export market.

The US have a policy of not entering into fair/free trade agreements with individual nations but with regional blocks such as the EU. The US have already gone on record and said that they would not apply any EU FTA to the UK if we left and would not be interested in agreeing a new one with an isolated UK (source: US Trade Rep Michael Froman).

The result?
Significantly tougher trading rules/conditions with the US over what we enjoy now... making it far more difficult for UK traders to do business in the US, infact it may be actively discouraged without the FTA. The rest of the EU will have a clear advantage over UK companies in the USA as they will not have to pay the 2.5% tariff the UK will have to.

Major companies such as JLR will have no choice but to leave the UK to maintain their free trade with US.
Again, the exit will badly damage our economy and our international trade opportunities - the knock of course being a reduction in jobs to go with the damaged economy.
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