Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 3:46 pm

A quiet day at Heathrow? Come on... be serious.

The only way things like air travel would not be sorted out is if there is an active effort by one (or possibly even both!) parties to make negotiations fail.

A deal will happen, and the UK will remain in the EU in all but name, but it's not because we've tried and failed, it's because those with any real power refuse to attempt to negotiate.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 3:59 pm

The only way things like air travel would not be sorted out is if there is an active effort by one (or possibly even both!) parties to make negotiations fail.

Thankfully HMG no longer have rabid throbbers like DD & BJ ( or JRM ) involved in the negotiations...but despite their claims otherwise, they're still stirring from the sidelines & attempting to scupper any possibility of a deal by trying to oust PMTM.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby parsley on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 5:38 pm

Brevet Cable wrote:
The only way things like air travel would not be sorted out is if there is an active effort by one (or possibly even both!) parties to make negotiations fail.

Thankfully HMG no longer have rabid throbbers like DD & BJ ( or JRM ) involved in the negotiations...but despite their claims otherwise, they're still stirring from the sidelines & attempting to scupper any possibility of a deal by trying to oust PMTM.


I guess we'll have to wait for the Conservative Party Conference at the end of the month before anything becomes clearer,although the delayed technical notice for aviation (which was meant to be out yesterday) should spell out the worst case scenarios although will likely be lauded as Project Fear by those so inclined.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby parsley on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 5:40 pm

MiG_Eater wrote:A quiet day at Heathrow? Come on... be serious.

The only way things like air travel would not be sorted out is if there is an active effort by one (or possibly even both!) parties to make negotiations fail.

A deal will happen, and the UK will remain in the EU in all but name, but it's not because we've tried and failed, it's because those with any real power refuse to attempt to negotiate.


Well there seems to be a fair sized chunk of the Conservative Party banging the no deal drum
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 7:44 pm

Even if there is "no deal" that doesn't mean there will be no deals. Do you seriously think the EU would allow UK/EU flights to stop for the sake of pride?

These laws are not inherent. They aren't of the universe, they are of the EU - and they can be unwound and provisions can be made. There is a solution to every problem - even when concerning the EU. The trouble is, it is the interests of the EU and UK negotiators to see a problem for every solution.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 8:23 pm

From the post above; it's amazing how Brexit is pretty openly accepted as a "problem" by those who seek to support it now.

Two years ago it was nothing but sunny uplands, the rest of the world queuing up to sign trade deals with us, and "no downsides, only considerable upsides".

I agree. I do think that there are solutions to these problems. How good those solutions will be, I don't know, and will probably vary.

Forgive the logic, but if we're looking for easy solutions to all of these problems caused by a no deal Brexit, it seems to me that the easiest solution would be to not Brexit without a deal. Or if problems are still encountered even with a deal.. to just not Brexit.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 8:31 pm

For those who didn't watch/listen to 'Any Questions' this evening, it was worrying to listen to the naivety of Bernard Jenkin when it came to trade deals....he has this strange belief that even in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit all that'll happen is that the UK will "cut and paste" ( his words ) the existing EU trade deals into UK law, everyone will agree to them & we'll carry on exactly the same as we do now ! :facepalm

God help if others in HMG think that way.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 8:54 pm

All this nonsense about EU air travel is weird, too. Flights wont just stop on 30th March.

As with everything with Brexit, you don't need to go to the very extreme edge of something to work out it's a bad move.

Civil aviaiton works by a series of treaties, which basically state that each country governs its own airspace. You can fly an airline from one country to another to take people on holiday, with a transit stop in a third country if necessary, but the original flight must be from a home-based airline. UK flights could fly to Spain, and then to Portugal, but only if that flight started in Britain.

The UK aviation single market revolutionised the practice, and convinced the EU to open up its airline borders. Now, a UK airline could run flights from anywhere in the EU, and not have to start them in the UK. It could set up daily flights between Spain and Malta, and would have zero requirement for any of those flights to originate in the UK. This is what created things like EasyJet, RyanAir, Whizz, Jet2 etc... and made holidaying incredibly cheap for British (and EU) citizens. They made holidays more affordable for everyone. The EU is the single biggest destination for UK airline flights, and the UK's aviation industry is a global titan.

And the UK can take pride in orchestrating (with a few other allies in the EU) this - a fine example of the UK bending the EU's single market to its own objectives and making a success out of it for ourselves.

It's not without its issues, but overall it is vastly successful.

The single aviation market comes under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and has rules managed by EASA - which controls almost all standards on European-based airlines.

To leave the EASA would probably mean that entire management facility shifts to the CAA, whom most of this forum think could seldom well-orchestrate a proverbial in a brewery anyway, let alone with this gargantuan new responsibility. Hundreds of new staff will have to be recruited/hired/trained and streamlined through a very complex process just to keep things afloat. Recruitment and training may take months, and we have precious few months left.

So what else might leaving this without a deal entail? Well we'd be out of the single aviation market for one. Flights would have to revert back to their old treaties, and those pesky "origin" rules. This probably wont mean a huge amount to passengers, but it will mean a lot to the companies like EasyJet, Whizz, Ryanair, etc, who have 20+ years of business structured away from that. To revert back to the old awkward way of doing things will shake those businesses violently (markets and businesses hate change, and especially hate it when it is sudden), so that likely means vastly increased costs for all of us who want a nice cheap week away in Alicante with the other half, or to pootle along to somewhere in Europe for a weekend to see some French warbirds...

Anyway, there is no "WTO fallback" here. It's nothing to do with the WTO, so leaving without any deal whatsoever will leave a cavernous regulatory gulf that no-one knows how to fill.

So that's the single aviation market. The real issue, as I think it will be, is with certification, regulation, and safety. EASA is recognised globally, and the UK have maintained itself to EASA standards. The US FAA would recognise safety-checks performed to EASA standards, as it does on the hundreds of flights arriving from Europe daily. The US has no-such mutual recognition of CAA standards. They have never needed to. So the US officials will have to double-check the safety-standards that engineers, pilots, and all other crew and staff have already certified. This will take time and money.

So will flights stop? No, of course not. That's not the real issue. They might reduce, ofc, and it might be more awkward to find somewhere to travel on holiday, but the UK will very likely not have flightless skies on 30th March.

What is likely is a period of "no-one knows what's going on", and that takes time and money of the airlines, which, because they are businesses, will be passed on to the customers. And everywhere will become more expensive.

"what's £11.00 in the Post Office?" (I summarise) someone said earlier. Well, not much (though it's a lot to some people). But it's not just £11.00, it's the extra cost of flights "well, what's an extra £50 to go on holiday?" someone might ask? Well, again, more, but still doable, but this all adds up, £11.00 here, £20.00 there, an extra £10.00 to get the same number of Euros we used to... all of those costs add up, and for what? What are we getting for it? Sovereignty we already had? Blue passports? "control"? That's the real issue. :dunno:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby CMS on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 9:41 pm

Tommy wrote:All this nonsense about EU air travel is weird, too. Flights wont just stop on 30th March.

As with everything with Brexit, you don't need to go to the very extreme edge of something to work out it's a bad move.

Civil aviaiton works by a series of treaties, which basically state that each country governs its own airspace. You can fly an airline from one country to another to take people on holiday, with a transit stop in a third country if necessary, but the original flight must be from a home-based airline. UK flights could fly to Spain, and then to Portugal, but only if that flight started in Britain.

The UK aviation single market revolutionised the practice, and convinced the EU to open up its airline borders. Now, a UK airline could run flights from anywhere in the EU, and not have to start them in the UK. It could set up daily flights between Spain and Malta, and would have zero requirement for any of those flights to originate in the UK. This is what created things like EasyJet, RyanAir, Whizz, Jet2 etc... and made holidaying incredibly cheap for British (and EU) citizens. They made holidays more affordable for everyone. The EU is the single biggest destination for UK airline flights, and the UK's aviation industry is a global titan.

And the UK can take pride in orchestrating (with a few other allies in the EU) this - a fine example of the UK bending the EU's single market to its own objectives and making a success out of it for ourselves.

It's not without its issues, but overall it is vastly successful.

The single aviation market comes under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and has rules managed by EASA - which controls almost all standards on European-based airlines.

To leave the EASA would probably mean that entire management facility shifts to the CAA, whom most of this forum think could seldom well-orchestrate a proverbial in a brewery anyway, let alone with this gargantuan new responsibility. Hundreds of new staff will have to be recruited/hired/trained and streamlined through a very complex process just to keep things afloat. Recruitment and training may take months, and we have precious few months left.

So what else might leaving this without a deal entail? Well we'd be out of the single aviation market for one. Flights would have to revert back to their old treaties, and those pesky "origin" rules. This probably wont mean a huge amount to passengers, but it will mean a lot to the companies like EasyJet, Whizz, Ryanair, etc, who have 20+ years of business structured away from that. To revert back to the old awkward way of doing things will shake those businesses violently (markets and businesses hate change, and especially hate it when it is sudden), so that likely means vastly increased costs for all of us who want a nice cheap week away in Alicante with the other half, or to pootle along to somewhere in Europe for a weekend to see the Danish Starfighter...

Anyway, there is no "WTO fallback" here. It's nothing to do with the WTO, so leaving without any deal whatsoever will leave a cavernous regulatory gulf that no-one knows how to fill.

So that's the single aviation market. The real issue, as I think it will be, is with certification, regulation, and safety. EASA is recognised globally, and the UK have maintained itself to EASA standards. The US FAA would recognise safety-checks performed to EASA standards, as it does on the hundreds of flights arriving from Europe daily. The US has no-such mutual recognition of CAA standards. They have never needed to. So the US officials will have to double-check the safety-standards that engineers, pilots, and all other crew and staff have already certified. This will take time and money.

So will flights stop? No, of course not. That's not the real issue. They might reduce, ofc, and it might be more awkward to find somewhere to travel on holiday, but the UK will very likely not have flightless skies on 30th March.

What is likely is a period of "no-one knows what's going on", and that takes time and money of the airlines, which, because they are businesses, will be passed on to the customers. And everywhere will become more expensive.

"what's £11.00 in the Post Office?" (I summarise) someone said earlier. Well, not much (though it's a lot to some people). But it's not just £11.00, it's the extra cost of flights "well, what's an extra £50 to go on holiday?" someone might ask? Well, again, more, but still doable, but this all adds up, £11.00 here, £20.00 there, an extra £10.00 to get the same number of Euros we used to... all of those costs add up, and for what? What are we getting for it? Sovereignty we already had? Blue passports? "control"? That's the real issue. :dunno:


Really interesting and an example of someone who has some knowledge and expertise in a field can throw some light light on the effects of Brexit. As a voter I had to go with a gut feeling rather than any real idea of what Brexit would really mean (enter all the "I know what I voted for and Britain is going to be great again so don't ask me any tricky questions brigade). The current split in the government shows how complex and unpredictable so much of the leaving the EU is going to be so I hope we will remember the thousands of small businesses with small work forces that may be destroyed by any disruption to their trade with the EU. They are hanging on with small margins unlike the big corporate who can weather the storm (50 years by some accounts). Those lives matter and I think TM is thinking of these people in her plan
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby cg_341 on Fri 14 Sep 2018, 10:57 pm

There's a good reason easyJet have set up an operation based in Austria, and Wizzair have a UK based airline.

Ryanair UK exists, supposedly, but I doubt we'll see any aircraft enter the G- until the day before/of Brrexit, if they need to do it at all.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby LN Strike Eagle on Sat 15 Sep 2018, 3:33 pm

Been waiting for this one. A fact finding mission to the WTO in Geneva.



Long, but even 15 minutes in, it's very interesting.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 18 Sep 2018, 3:23 pm

And the most recent batch of what the usual suspects will claim is merely 'project fear'......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45558424
he senior vice president of Honda Europe has warned that a no-deal Brexit would cost his company tens of millions of pounds.

Ian Howells told the BBC that quitting the bloc without an agreement would affect the carmaker's competitiveness in Europe.
He said the Japanese firm was preparing for a no-deal outcome but had not discussed relocating its Swindon plant.
(snip)
In an interview with Radio 5 live, Mr Howells said a no-deal Brexit would lead to costly trade barriers and disrupt its supply chain.
"In terms of administration, we'd probably be looking at something like sixty odd thousand additional bits of documentation we would have to provide to get product to and from Europe," he told the Wake up to Money programme.
"And clearly if we end up with World Trade Organization tariffs we'd have something like 10% costs in addition on our shipped product back into Europe, and that would certainly run into tens of millions of pounds."
"Likewise when we're looking at componentry coming the other way, again [it could cost] tens of millions in terms of tariffs coming into the UK."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45561908
The Mini factory in Oxford will shut down for a month after Brexit at the end of March to minimise disruption in case of a no-deal outcome.

Owner BMW said its summer maintenance shutdown had been brought forward to 1 April to reduce any "possible short-term parts-supply disruption".
"While we believe this worst case scenario is an unlikely outcome, we have to plan for it," BMW said.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45489818
The boss of the UK's biggest carmaker has warned the government to get "the right Brexit" or it could wipe out his firm's profits and end in big job cuts.
Jaguar Land Rover's Ralf Speth called the prospect of a cliff-edge break with the European Union as "horrifying".
He was speaking at a conference in Birmingham, where Theresa May unveiled a £106m "green" vehicle initiative.
A spokesman for the prime minister said her Chequers Brexit proposals included protections for the car industry.

Mr Speth, who has previously warned of Brexit's impact on JLR, said that if the "wrong decisions" were taken in the negotiations with Brussels, it could result in the "worst of times" for the UK and cost the company more than £1.2bn a year.
"Any friction at the border puts business at jeopardy," he said at the UK's first Zero Emission Vehicle Summit.
"We are absolutely firmly committed to the UK, it's our home. But a hard Brexit will cost Jaguar Land Rover more than £1.2bn a year - it's horrifying, wiping our profit, destroying investment in the autonomous, zero-emissions, we want to share."

He said that if poor UK productivity worsened after Brexit, he would be forced to move manufacturing to somewhere such as Poland, where it was cheaper to make cars.


:snack:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 2:27 pm

PMTM's statement this afternoon, accusing the EU negotiators of being intractable with regards her 'Chequers Plan'......pathetically hypocritical, it would be laughable if it weren't for the serious consequences her pandering to the DUP & her own hard-line back-benchers will have for the rest of the Country.

Add to that you've got local Councils having to massively cut services ( or increase taxes ) in order to save £1 billion next year when PMTM's just given around £4 billion to Nigeria, plus her slight-of-hand regarding the supposedly wonderful announcement that HMG are going to spend £2 billion on building 300,000+ 'social houses' ( which won't happen for another 4 years ) and it's another illustration that she's one of the most useless PMs we've ever had.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby boff180 on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 7:28 pm

There is a massive funding issue coming for Local Governments....

The government is stopping direct budgetary (grant) payments to Councils from 2020/2021. It's a massive austerity saving.
Councils in England (and Wales I think) will be 100% funded by Council Tax and Business Rates from their area - which they now retain in full.
Areas with low Business Rates income are already struggling and will without doubt collapse in 2021.

Now factor in the demands for Business Rates reform and a reduction in Business Rates from businesses and MP's. If that happens.

Funding for Local Services will completely dry up without massive increases in Council Tax - possibly over 100%.
Councils and local authorities will cease to exist.

Add Brexit uncertainty into that and the public sector and all the services it provides to this country are screwed.
Enjoy paying for everything from now on.


To quote Macron today... "Brexit has shown us one thing – and I fully respect British sovereignty in saying this – it has demonstrated that those who said you can easily do without Europe, that it will all go very well, that it is easy and there will be lots of money, are liars,”
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 8:09 pm

boff180 wrote:"... it has demonstrated that those who said you can easily do without Europe, that it will all go very well, that it is easy and there will be lots of money, are liars,”


From me in February 2017:

This is the issue with things such as Brexit. Complex problems will not be resolved by simple solutions. No matter how much we want them to.


Eighteen months later, a general election, and Article 50 triggered and this policy is still adopted. And Brexiteers are still expressing shock at stuff they were told would happen happening.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 8:29 pm

Radio 4's 'The Briefing Room' earlier was about whether or not we could have another referendum before the final decision to leave (yes) and the ins-and-outs of how & what.

Coincidentally, the programme which followed it ('In Business') was about the current trade war the USA is involved in....an interesting fact emerged, namely that Canada has a trade deal with the EU which says that 70% of it's dairy product imports must come from EU Countries (which stuffs US exporters as they must complete with the rest of the World for the remaining 30%) which begs the question how do the UK expect to manage outside of the EU when the EU & Countries such as the US have similar restrictive deals of their own.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 8:50 pm

I voted Remain but I don’t blame people who voted Leave for where we are now.

All of these “negatives” could have been made public before triggering Article 50, but The EU refused to discuss anything until we triggered Article 50.

I don’t blame the 585 poiiticians who voted to trigger Article 50. At the time The Press were on the side of Leave -“enemy of the people” they called Gina Miller and her challenge to triggering Article 50 and the validity of the referendum and the open “hatred” of the press , perversely, probably also rushed the triggering of Article 50, that she so wanted to stop.

Having read Article 50 it can be stopped dead if all
Member States agree and parliament voted to revoke it.

A brave parliament going “against the wishes of the people” ? They wouldn’t dare without the second referendum they so need to validate their revokation of Article 50.

But.

What happens if Leave win again on a second referendum ?

I live in an area that is 70/30 Leave. I haven’t heard anything in my town to say that is going to change.

Indeed one person saying “Southern Softies think you are all racist bigots and should vote Remain this time” and it will slip to 90/10 Leave.

I don’t know anyone who drives in Europe and most round here would be hard pressed to point to Europe on a map and most don’t care about Ireland and their border.

They would vote for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales (and, probably Yorkshire too !!) to leave the U.K. given a vote on it.
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Paul_Reflex on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 9:12 pm

Just one thing Eric, Gina Miller did not challenge the triggering of article 50. She challenged the triggering of article 50 by the executive without parliamentary approval. That's quite different. She was looking after all of our interests, whether leavers or remainers, whatever the nasty British press said about her.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 9:17 pm

ericbee123 wrote:Having read Article 50 it can be stopped dead if all
Member States agree and parliament voted to revoke it.


Entirely incorrect. Article 50 does not say anywhere that once triggered it may be stopped.

We've been over this... From me, from July:

Tommy wrote:
There is no certain legal mechanism to stop Article 50. These are, legally speaking, pretty uncharted waters.

If the nation, and the rest of the EU was unified to one course or other, there could be some sort of fudge available, I’m sure, but insofar as what the ink on the agreement says, there’s no legal mechanism for stopping it.


So it *could* happen with a bit of meandering, but there is nothing in Article 50 that says it can be "stopped dead". You either misread Article 50, or are lying about it. I'm very sure it's the former, but whichever way it is, it's wrong.

What you probably mean is postponed. Maybe indefinitely but that's the debate of the time. It's universally accepted that Article 50 has no words saying it can be stopped. Be careful of which words you use.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 9:28 pm

And the press famously called the High Court Judges "Enemies of the People", not Gina Miller.

Disgusting, either way - no-one's an "enemy of the people" except those who seek to do us harm. But undermining the independent judiciary was a low point in British political life.

And Paul corrected you re the actual case, too.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby UKTopgun on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 10:40 pm

Today was supposed to be the day that, according to all you Brexiteers, the EU 27 begged us for a deal... hmmmm
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Thu 20 Sep 2018, 11:25 pm

Tommy,
Can't remember who the experts were on 'The Briefing Room', but they all said the same thing - the leave process (Article 50) can be paused, suspended indefinitely or even cancelled (as you say, as long as all the Members States & the EU Commission unanimously agreed to it)
The sticking point for the last option would be how likely it would be for them to allow the UK to remain a Member whilst retaining all the special deals, rebates & opt-outs they've gained.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Fri 21 Sep 2018, 5:01 am

Brevet Cable wrote:Tommy,
Can't remember who the experts were on 'The Briefing Room', but they all said the same thing - the leave process (Article 50) can be paused, suspended indefinitely or even cancelled (as you say, as long as all the Members States & the EU Commission unanimously agreed to it)
The sticking point for the last option would be how likely it would be for them to allow the UK to remain a Member whilst retaining all the special deals, rebates & opt-outs they've gained.


It's really important, this.

I'm not using an opinion or point of view, it is in the black and white. There is nothing in Article 50 which allows it to be "cancelled". The most likely fudge-around is to put it on hold forever, but this does not mean that Article 50 can be cancelled. Whomever is talking about stuff like Article 50 needs to be careful with "stopped dead" and "cancelled". The Article hasn't anything in it that says either.

As a matter of law, there is nothing May could use, even if she wanted to, in Article 50, to cancel it.

Those of the view that it can be "cancelled" need to be careful with the words they use. Legally, it can't be "cancelled".

Until we leave the EU, even if we put it on hold forever, we will always be in the Article 50 process. That letter she sent was, legally, a one-way ticket.

Or, if it's a simpler way of looking at it, read the Article and tell me what someone could use/trigger/rely on to cancel/stop dead/revoke Article 50.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Fri 21 Sep 2018, 9:22 am

I hope we leave; but the only reason May would ever pause or cancel article 50 is if she put her principles above her career... I'm not holding my breath!
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Fri 21 Sep 2018, 9:24 am

ericbee123 wrote:
I don’t blame the 585 poiiticians who voted to trigger Article 50. At the time The Press were on the side of Leave -“enemy of the people” they called Gina Miller and her challenge to triggering Article 50 and the validity of the referendum and the open “hatred” of the press , perversely, probably also rushed the triggering of Article 50, that she so wanted to stop.


She hasn't gone away, she was trotted out again this morning on the Today programme on Radio 4.
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