RIAT Weather

[james_gr7]

Hi all,

I thought i would start a new thread on this most important of topics given the less than favourable conditions over the last few years.

As an amateur meteorologist, i am happy to provide regular updates ahead of the big event using a series of computer models used by the met office and other amateur meteorologists, and plan to do this every evening to cover the arrivals week, as well as the weekend itself.

I shall be studying the charts continually over the next 11 days, and will give an advanced forecast based on these each evening.

Just to get the juices running, despite a possible fly in the ointment early next week, the RIAT weekend itself is looking very promising indeed !!

More soon . . .

J

[roadhousedisco]

Believe it or not, someone contacted DBH and asked them to pick a weekend it didn't rain to hold the airshow!!!!

Mark

[james_gr7]

Believe it or not, someone contacted DBH and asked them to pick a weekend it didn't rain to hold the airshow!!!!

Mark

if that's the case they won't be disappointed with the weekend allocated

J

[DeconflictionService]

As part of my day job, I happen to work at RNAS Yeovilton - whats the weather likely to be over the next 6days? We have a little aviation sworay (eek spelling!) this coming Saturday 9th July..... Many Thanks!!

[DanH]

Thanks for doing this for us James I'm sure it will come in very handy.

One website I like to keep an eye on is http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

It shows a rainfall radar for the last 2 hours so you can check it and see if theres any downpours heading towards you.

[hank_marvin]

Where's the update then?

I'm on holiday in the cotswolds area from this sat to the monday (departure day)

What can I expect.

Danke

[ian.goddard]

To my eyes the weather is looking a bit rubbish towards RIAT weekend, but it's still a way off and even the forecasts in the days just preceding often turn out to be a bit wrong.

People wanting to keep an eye on the models might find this useful. It's a graph showing outcomes of a particular weather model for various locations, with the green line being the 'main' one and the others using slightly different formulas. The idea is to spot trends/changes both in the members of each individual run and in the runs themselves. It probably goes without saying that the further out it is, the less likely it is to be 'accurate'. New graphs are usually out at 6am (00z), 12pm (06z), 6pm (12z) and 12am (18z).

I imagine cloud is going to be the main worry given the number of display teams. If conditions are poor then the commentary team are going to have their work cut out inventing different names for flying in a circle!

[postman1967]

have a look at this site http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/wea ... -base.html
its shows not bad weather 4 riat

[TomTwin]

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... rford&MR=1

The forecast here looks promising.... Let's hope it keeps up for the show and departure days!

[mrlovepantsuk]

I've looked at a couple of sites and it doesn't look to good.

[DerekF]

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=Fairford&MR=1

The forecast here looks promising.... Let's hope it keeps up for the show and departure days!

I've looked at a couple of sites and it doesn't look to good.

Which only goes to prove that the forecast can only be relied upon a day or two in advance.

[raptured777]

The weather forcastfor the riat weekend looks terrible heavy rain and strong winds looks like if they right most of the displays wont fly just like duxford, I just hope and pray the forcast can change what do you guys think can the weather forcast change in 5 days?

[DerekF]

Yes it can. I've seen forecasts for everything for Saturday - rain, sun, showers.

It rained all at Cosford and many of the displays still flew.

I have to say the synpotic picture for the weekend doesn't look too great. Let's hope it changes.

[raptured777]

CHEERS DEREKF GLAD THE WEATHER CAN CHANGE

[tankbuster81]

BBC say dry ,sunny,others say anything from light rain,to dry ,sunny and rain etc etc.so they have no idea as usual!! Im going saturday whatever the weather.

[DamienB]

I see the FRIAT weather list has been updated today.

Heavy rain (F)
Cloud (F)
Sunshine (S)
Snow - cancelled due to world economic situation
Plague of locusts - TBC

[DerekF]

BBC say dry ,sunny,others say anything from light rain,to dry ,sunny and rain etc etc.so they have no idea as usual!! Im going saturday whatever the weather.

It's not that they have no idea, it's that forecasting this far in advance is difficult. I'll probably go Saturday anyway but it's nice to know what to be prepared for.
(It can't be any worse than Cosford can it?)

[dragonslayer]

I saw the weekly BBC farming forecast last night and it didn't look/sound good for the weekend.

The weather is reasonale between now and Friday, with sun and showers.

However, they were quite specific for Saturday and Sunday ' wet and windy' for us all.

The weather charts show a massive weather system over the Atlantic, progressively heading our way this week - I hope they've got it wrong.

Regards, C

[DerekF]

What is difficult to predict is the timing - the weather system may pass through overnight, slowdown, speed up, fizzle out or intensify - anything really. The timing of any weather system won't be known for sure until much later in the week.

Other models I've seen are showing sunny and showery for Saturday. We'll see.

[cambsgirl]

Ooooo hadnt thought of this, another good reason to camp, if its horrible and raining you can just go for a kip. Marvellous. Sleep is good, mmm sleep.

[vulcan57]

At this time, 11/07/11 13.30.

Metcheck

Sat - Partly cloudy with showers in the afternoon
Sun - Fair all day

Meteogroup

Sat- Overcast and light rain
Sun - Rather cloudy

Weather.com

Sat - Light rain
Sun - Fog am, Sun pm

Better than a lot of forecasts, so hopefully it won't be too bad.

[capercaillie]

At this time, 11/07/11 13.30.

Metcheck

Sat - Partly cloudy with showers in the afternoon
Sun - Fair all day

Meteogroup

Sat- Overcast and light rain
Sun - Rather cloudy

Weather.com

Sat - Light rain
Sun - Fog am, Sun pm

Better than a lot of forecasts, so hopefully it won't be too bad.

Does Metcheck still show winds that will strip the skin off your face whilst full July sun only gives us 8 deg celsius temps? Its an unchecked computer system!

[raptured777]

Just found this from bbc weather site reads very depressing news I am feeling gutted for the RIAT weekend,Thursday a weakening front will bring cloud and light rain to Northern Ireland. This front then reinvigorates on Friday to give showers over northern Britain, opening the gates for an unseasonable low to sweep in bringing wet and windy weather to many parts of the country this weekend. whats is it with fairford and rain , Anyone any good news can this change?

[mrlovepantsuk]

Yeah was thinking how todays weather would be perfect, warm with blue sky and a few white fluffy clouds scattered around.

[jingernut]

Never understand why people get so worked up looking at the forecasts in advance