Questions for your thoughts please

Discuss all things 'aviation' that do not fit into a more appropriate forum
User avatar
Ouragan
Posts: 275
Joined: Fri 22 Jul 2016, 11:34 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by Ouragan »

Why are people still talking about having to retake the Falklands again? You assume that Argentina has the military capability to take it from the UK forces that are already based there and which would be reinforced if the intelligence suggested something like that would be attempted. Furthermore you assume Argentina would be successful. Like I said in my earlier post it would be wholly different because we are already there, and Argentina's military has proportionally lost a lot more since 1982 than ours has.

In 1982 Argentina's navy had one aircraft carrier, one cruiser, six destroyers, three corvettes, one tank landing ship, five minesweeper/minelayers, seven patrol boats and one submarine. Combat aircraft available consisted of 38 Mirage/Daggers, approximately 50 A-4 Skyhawks, 35 Pucaras, five Super Etendards, eight Canberras and six MB.339s for a total of approximately 150 aircraft.

In 2019 the Argentine Navy consists of two submarines, four destroyers (unarmed due to their ordnance being time expired), six corvettes, eight patrol boats and two amphibious support vessels. The fleet is hampered by a shortage of spares and funding. Combat aircraft available include up to ten Super Etendards, 20 A-4AR Fightinghawks and 30 Pucaras -ON PAPER. It is doubtful if any Etendards are serviceable while the A-4AR fleet is presently grounded, with only a handful currently airworthy.

User avatar
pbeardmore
Posts: 4362
Joined: Thu 06 Nov 2008, 9:16 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by pbeardmore »

I think we know that the premise is purely a theory and an unlikely one. But it's interesting to discuss our real life capability compared to the early 80s. Especially as we know of all the risks, threat etc of operating in the South Atlantic. It does not seem to be clear cut regarding whether we could take them back on our own and that, (considering how tech has increased) makes it an interesting debate IMHO

We could also add to the debate, what would be the minimum strength required by the Argies (could they do it based on early 80s strength?) to tke the Islands now and what would be the correct tactics?

Linked to these, rather than overall figures, can someone point me towards exact figures re the actual UK fighting force on the Falklands rather than support staff.
“The best computer is a man, and it’s the only one that can be mass-produced by unskilled labour.”

farnboroughrob
Posts: 1880
Joined: Fri 05 Jun 2009, 8:31 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by farnboroughrob »

Personally until the Argentinians have a viable combat aircraft, most probably a couple of squadrons surplus F-16, and a AAR capability there is little threat. The RAF presence would have to be eliminated and then a invasion would be viable. From what I understand there are only a handful of helicopters on the islands so any defence would be restricted to Mount Pleasant and Stanley. I could not see the UK recovering the islands IF this ever happened. It would take a big economic resurgence in Argentina for anything on the horizon.

User avatar
Phantom 892
Posts: 113
Joined: Mon 04 Jun 2012, 11:02 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by Phantom 892 »

What about the SU-22 jets that the Argies were supposed to be getting from the Russian's a few years ago; did this ever happen?

User avatar
Abbo46
Posts: 858
Joined: Thu 16 Aug 2018, 10:54 am
Location: Suffolk

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by Abbo46 »

No.

User avatar
pbeardmore
Posts: 4362
Joined: Thu 06 Nov 2008, 9:16 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by pbeardmore »

I agree wih farboroughbob, once air superiority has been lost, things would be tough.

Happy to be corrected but is it 2 Typhhoons on alert and 2 on standby? So a mock, diversionary attack from one direction, a real attack from another direction(s) with precsion bombs to render the runway out of use and damage infrastructure. Where do the 2 Typhoons land and how long before base recovers?

According to WIKI, A4s can deliver JDAM?

I suspect this system is not operational yet?

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... d-islands/
“The best computer is a man, and it’s the only one that can be mass-produced by unskilled labour.”

User avatar
T_J
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 6:57 pm
Location: Lincs

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by T_J »

Phantom 892 wrote:What about the SU-22 jets that the Argies were supposed to be getting from the Russian's a few years ago; did this ever happen?


It was Su-24 Fencers and a fabricated story. Journalist Marco Giannageli was a laughing stock and continued to make the claims that Russia was going to supply Su-24s to Argentina!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/549006 ... -Argentina

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/552676 ... ntina-navy

Tensions have increased now Argentina is negotiating to lease 12 Russian Sukhoi Su-24 supersonic, all-weather attack aircraft from Russia with which it could patrol over Port Stanley again.


http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/555 ... rity-boost

User avatar
Tmyers123
Posts: 1069
Joined: Thu 03 May 2018, 6:05 pm
Location: West Yorkshire

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by Tmyers123 »

pbeardmore wrote:Happy to be corrected but is it 2 Typhhoons on alert and 2 on standby? So a mock, diversionary attack from one direction, a real attack from another direction(s) with precsion bombs to render the runway out of use and damage infrastructure. Where do the 2 Typhoons land and how long before base recovers?


3 of 1435 Flight’s Typhoons are on QRA, with one in reserve. They are based at RAF Mount Pleasant on the Falklands themselves, and if they had to divert would probably go to an airport in a more friendly South American country, or RAF Ascension with the help of a Voyager if they’re really desperate.

FarnboroJohn
Posts: 2320
Joined: Tue 28 Aug 2012, 6:57 pm

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by FarnboroJohn »

pbeardmore wrote:I agree wih farboroughbob, once air superiority has been lost, things would be tough.

Happy to be corrected but is it 2 Typhhoons on alert and 2 on standby? So a mock, diversionary attack from one direction, a real attack from another direction(s) with precsion bombs to render the runway out of use and damage infrastructure. Where do the 2 Typhoons land and how long before base recovers?

According to WIKI, A4s can deliver JDAM?

I suspect this system is not operational yet?

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... d-islands/


Are you planning to attack at medium level to designate for these bombs, in which case you are going to be in radar more or less from leaving Argentina, or at low level, in which case you may or may not avoid the search radars but will fly straight down the throat of the Rapiers? I can't really recommend either. The defence is layered, it doesn't depend on just a couple of Typhoons on the end of either of the runways at Mount Pleasant. How long is the Stanley runway these days?

User avatar
pbeardmore
Posts: 4362
Joined: Thu 06 Nov 2008, 9:16 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by pbeardmore »

All fair points. Was thinking about low level and then pull up and toss bomb?

Is rapier that big a threat?

The false attack would be med level to show up and distract the Typhoons. Not even an attack, mayday from civil aircraft with nav/engine issues would be a distraction without putting whole base at action stations?

Was just pointing out how much more vulnerable runways are now that the early 80s. Can you defend the Falklands with no runway?

All about the ellement of surprise also. It's hard to maintain genuine defence 24/7
“The best computer is a man, and it’s the only one that can be mass-produced by unskilled labour.”

User avatar
T_J
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 6:57 pm
Location: Lincs

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by T_J »

pbeardmore wrote:I agree wih farboroughbob, once air superiority has been lost, things would be tough.

Happy to be corrected but is it 2 Typhhoons on alert and 2 on standby? So a mock, diversionary attack from one direction, a real attack from another direction(s) with precsion bombs to render the runway out of use and damage infrastructure. Where do the 2 Typhoons land and how long before base recovers?

According to WIKI, A4s can deliver JDAM?

I suspect this system is not operational yet?

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... d-islands/


Argentina would need to capture RAF Mount Pleasant with the runway intact in order to pull off an other invasion. Also consider that there is two runways and there is runway arrestor gear to enable short landings. For your scenario the Argentinians would also have to disable Stanley airfield which is an option for the Typhoons. They simply don't have the naval capability to land an invasion force and their navy still has no answer to Royal Navy SSNs. Those SSNs now have Tomahawk capability and in order to prevent their naval forces from being targeted in port would have to have them deployed at sea. Put yourself in the shoes of an Argentine Navy commander with that problem? It would be an absolute disaster and something that would take years and a hell of a lot of investment and training to get their equipment and forces up to such as state to pull off a re-invasion. Without the naval capability the only option is to attempt to take the airfields intact and flood in as many troops as they can. Such a scenario would be an absolute bloodbath. Argentina would need to invest heavily in their armed forces and any such moves would only result in the Falklands garrison being re-enforced as a potential threat increases.

User avatar
T_J
Posts: 2833
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 6:57 pm
Location: Lincs

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by T_J »

pbeardmore wrote:Is rapier that big a threat?


Rapier in the Falklands is soon to be replaced by MBDA'S Common Anti-air Modular Missile (Land).

https://www.mbda-systems.com/product/camm/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/300-mil ... d-islands/

User avatar
HeyfordDave111
Posts: 1265
Joined: Sat 21 Feb 2015, 5:30 pm
Location: In my minds eye, Greenham Common for 'that' show.

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by HeyfordDave111 »

Tmyers123 wrote:
pbeardmore wrote:Happy to be corrected but is it 2 Typhhoons on alert and 2 on standby? So a mock, diversionary attack from one direction, a real attack from another direction(s) with precsion bombs to render the runway out of use and damage infrastructure. Where do the 2 Typhoons land and how long before base recovers?


3 of 1435 Flight’s Typhoons are on QRA, with one in reserve. They are based at RAF Mount Pleasant on the Falklands themselves, and if they had to divert would probably go to an airport in a more friendly South American country, or RAF Ascension with the help of a Voyager if they’re really desperate.


What are the legs of a QRA typhoon? if they took off on QRA, thats a burner take lff and ba lls to the wall get out to the agressor in time, meanwhile if the runway was hit and as such denied for the landing Typhoons, and assuming that there isnt a handy tanker just pootling round near the falklands, could the Typhoons reach an air base that would inter but be friendly beofre going in the drink through fuel starvation?

Glad this topic is making people chat about it, i'm finding it very interesting.
cheers
Dave
Got to love Russianhardware

User avatar
Abbo46
Posts: 858
Joined: Thu 16 Aug 2018, 10:54 am
Location: Suffolk

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by Abbo46 »

I'd assume they'd be able to reach Chile, running on vapor..

That is of course depending on whether or not they'd have to engage further Argentine aircraft during the transit.

User avatar
HeyfordDave111
Posts: 1265
Joined: Sat 21 Feb 2015, 5:30 pm
Location: In my minds eye, Greenham Common for 'that' show.

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by HeyfordDave111 »

ok, so 'fleshing' this out a bit...... apart from a political filip to the ruling party with the masses, what would be in it for Argentina?

Oil? fishing? gold? any idea anyone?

The reason that i ask is because cou,d this be a reason for 2 south american countries to become unlikely bedfellows?

Also no ones mentioned on here, as far as i can see, that a European big wig mentioned a European joint force a month or 2 back to combat the potential threat from China, Russia and the USA (yes, they mentioned the USA in that sentence), so how could Europe combat the threat from Russia? China or the USA?

Ok we know France has Nukes, but the air combat capability, can europe best the Russians in the air? certainly Russia probably still has a lot more ground forces than Europe, so Europe would have to consider the Nuclear option against that lot as in the early years after the war.

But the USA mention i hope was a throw away line, but was it really? im not so sure myself, but i'm a but of a jingoist to be honest.

Again, opinions if you'd like to share?
cheers
Dave
Got to love Russianhardware

User avatar
Tmyers123
Posts: 1069
Joined: Thu 03 May 2018, 6:05 pm
Location: West Yorkshire

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by Tmyers123 »

HeyfordDave111 wrote:What are the legs of a QRA typhoon? if they took off on QRA, thats a burner take lff and ba lls to the wall get out to the agressor in time, meanwhile if the runway was hit and as such denied for the landing Typhoons, and assuming that there isnt a handy tanker just pootling round near the falklands, could the Typhoons reach an air base that would inter but be friendly beofre going in the drink through fuel starvation?

Dave


1312 Flight is assigned to the South Atlantic Islands with a Voyager. :up:

User avatar
pbeardmore
Posts: 4362
Joined: Thu 06 Nov 2008, 9:16 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by pbeardmore »

How will the Falklands Voyager assist with no runway? If the fake requirement is out to the East, every mile out is another mile back to Chile.
“The best computer is a man, and it’s the only one that can be mass-produced by unskilled labour.”

User avatar
ericbee123
Posts: 2193
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 9:13 am
Location: Blackpool

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by ericbee123 »

[quote="pbeardmore"]

Was just pointing out how much more vulnerable runways are now that the early 80s. Can you defend the Falklands with no runway?

/quote]
How vulnerable are runways, control towers and command and control buildings on the Falklands when we start sending tomahawks from attack submarines.

Tow 4 Type 45s down to the South Atlantic and splash every aircraft trying to resupply the islands. Send another attack submarine to sink any ships headed there from Argentina.

Put half a dozen GMLRS on a container ship and subject the Argentinian garrisons on the islands yo nightly
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.

User avatar
ericbee123
Posts: 2193
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 9:13 am
Location: Blackpool

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by ericbee123 »

pbeardmore wrote:
Was just pointing out how much more vulnerable runways are now that the early 80s. Can you defend the Falklands with no runway?


How vulnerable are runways, control towers and command and control buildings on the Falklands when we start sending nightly tomahawks from attack submarines. A lot more effective than a single bomb from a Vulcan ?

Tow 4xType 45s down to the South Atlantic and splash every aircraft trying to resupply the islands. Send another attack submarine to sink any ships headed there from Argentina.

Put half a dozen GMLRS on a container ship and subject the Argentinian garrisons on the islands to nightly bombardments from over the horizon

Send in a row boat with 6 Girl Guides on board to accept the Argentinian surrender after a couple of weeks.

Job done. Didn’t need the Amphibious Assault ships or the Carrier Strike ( in a few years ).
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.

User avatar
speedbird2639
Posts: 1261
Joined: Wed 13 Jul 2011, 11:35 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by speedbird2639 »

Does anyone have any stats on how much it takes to maintain the UK forces presence in the Falklands each year (or alternatively a 'to date' figure since hostilities ceased in 1982). Given the Falklands only contribution is sheep farming and fishing (neither particularly high net worth activities) then there must be a substantial shortfall between contribution to the economy and costs incurred.

User avatar
starbuck
Posts: 883
Joined: Tue 28 Mar 2017, 9:35 pm

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by starbuck »

Given that the general consensus on here is that Argentina is years away from having the capability either technologically, financially or politically from ever having another go, it is in practical terms a complete waste of money to maintain the Typhoons down there.

However, it would be a very brave government to ever make that decision and withstand the resultant Daily Mail led backlash so it will probably never happen.

User avatar
pbeardmore
Posts: 4362
Joined: Thu 06 Nov 2008, 9:16 am

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by pbeardmore »

Thats a very good point. I don't think anyone thinks there is a serious threat at the moment, or (in fact) any threat. So, do we conclude that our forces down there are purely symbolic?
“The best computer is a man, and it’s the only one that can be mass-produced by unskilled labour.”

FarnboroJohn
Posts: 2320
Joined: Tue 28 Aug 2012, 6:57 pm

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by FarnboroJohn »

pbeardmore wrote:Thats a very good point. I don't think anyone thinks there is a serious threat at the moment, or (in fact) any threat. So, do we conclude that our forces down there are purely symbolic?


Forces are never purely symbolic. The genesis of the 1982 fracas was the Argentinians' perception that HMG had lost interest, based on things like the proposed RN drawdown (sale of the carriers etc). Questions were asked in the House about why an SSN had not been sent (and the information "leaked") to forestall the invasion, as done on a previous occasion by a Labour government.

The forces are there. Withdraw them, you send a message - again.

User avatar
starbuck
Posts: 883
Joined: Tue 28 Mar 2017, 9:35 pm

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by starbuck »

But by keeping the forces there (and i'm only talking about withdrawing the Typhoons BTW) doesn't that conversely also validate the perceived threat from Argentina that we have all agreed doesn't in reality exist?

Anyone with an up to date edition of Janes can tell that Argentina is no threat, so why give them the reverence that they are?

User avatar
Brevet Cable
Posts: 13190
Joined: Tue 05 Mar 2013, 12:13 pm

Re: Questions for your thoughts please

Post by Brevet Cable »

ericbee123 wrote:Tow 4xType 45s down to the South Atlantic and splash every aircraft trying to resupply the islands. Send another attack submarine to sink any ships headed there from Argentina.


We'd have to find 4 T45s in a serviceable enough condition in the first place....and as Corporate proved, a static ship is merely an easier target than a moving one ( and as was proved at the time, if they're close enough to the shore ships are also vulnerable to ATGMs.
Argentina has submarines too.

speedbird2639 wrote:Does anyone have any stats on how much it takes to maintain the UK forces presence in the Falklands each year

Figures from the Bennies claim it's less than 0.2% of the total UK defence budget....whatever that is these days ( £36 billion? )

pbeardmore wrote:So, do we conclude that our forces down there are purely symbolic?

Yes....or political willy-waving, as some would view it ( it's not just intended to send a message to Argentina )
Tôi chỉ đặt cái này ở đây để giữ cho người điều hành bận rộn
아직도 숨어있다