Lets call the GE result

Lets call the GE result

Postby pbeardmore on Tue 05 May 2015, 9:47 pm

OK, we are almost there and it's on a knife edge. So who can best predict the result? (not who you support)

I am going for a Lab government, informally supported by the SNP for a few months with another GE early Dec.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Pringles on Tue 05 May 2015, 9:54 pm

Tory coalition probably with the Lib Dems. Labour will replace their leader and probably win the next election. But it's just a guess...
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Tommy on Tue 05 May 2015, 10:03 pm

Not a bad shout, PB, but I just can't see a Labour-led Government... That said, you might be right on the money with another GE before the year is out.

To me the truth, above all else, is that the public don't know what we want, hence why current politics is so moulded to the same shape, give or take very arbitrary and marginal statements. God forbid anyone has any original and well-tested ideas and principles that aren't a load of puff and based on scaremongering tactics. Strip away party allegiances, history, members etc, and look at the policies on offer, and there's nothing earth-shatteringly different between them. There might be a little more focus on one area than the other, but overall it's all the same sort of issues being discussed.

It seems to me that it's all sound-bites over substance these days. :hide:

As for the GE result? I see another Tory-led coalition, in truth. Perhaps with the Lib Dems again...

Aside from the above, anyone read the Monster Raving Loony Party Manifesto? Inspired stuff, makes for a rather entertaining read during the lunch break at work! :grin:
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby pbeardmore on Tue 05 May 2015, 10:12 pm

There does seem to back a remarkable lack of interest south of the border but I think this will change IF the SNP start to call the shots. There could be a massive Anti Scots backlash , supported and encouraged by the Conservative opposition with DC not resigning as Leader if he smells the chance of getting back into number 10 before Xmas. It could get really messy and a major constitutional crisis could be played out but most people seem more interested in royal babies. I am trying to get my son interested as I am sure that historians will be talking about the GE for decades to come.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby FarnboroJohn on Tue 05 May 2015, 11:51 pm

Its clear there is an informal agreement by the Westminster parties that the SNP are going to be cold-shouldered at all costs. Whoever is in coalition it won't be them.

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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby DanH on Wed 06 May 2015, 7:51 am

Going back to the opposition leader's debate, there was a question about what kind of coalition agreements they would be willing to make, and almost all of them said that they would not form a government with the Conservatives (apart from UKIP and the Lib Dems as Nick Clegg wasn't present). David Cameron is going to find it extremely difficult to form a majority government with just the Lib Dems as it is clear that both are going to lose seats in this election and even the two of the together may not be enough. The next option would be to invite UKIP in as well, but Nick Clegg has publicly stated that he wouldn't enter into any coalition with them, and besides, doubt that Cameron would want to go down in history as the guy who invited Nigel in to join a government.

Personally, I think the conservatives will win the most seats but Labour will be the party that forms a government, with the Lib Dems and maybe one of the smaller parties thrown in too.

Whatever happens, the next few days are going to be very interesting indeed.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 06 May 2015, 8:38 am

From the various leaders debates I listened to , at one time or another both Labour and the Conservatives repeatedly stated that they wouldn't be going into coalition with another party or parties.
Rather makes a mockery of the Conservatives & their acolyte news-rags harping on about the SNP "running the country" if Labour won , and the other parties ( primarily Labour ) and their news-rags chuntering on about the Conservatives selling-out to UKIP & the DUP.
Now whether or not either/both of the main parties were telling outright lies about coalitions ( Labour have repeatedly said they'd form a minority govt. rather than go into a coalition ) is another matter.

I live in Wales , so it's a given that Labour will win here ; Ditto it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the SNP will win in Scotland if the polls are anything to go by.

As for there possibly being another GE before the end of the year.......unlikely.
Ironically , this is down to legislation introduced by the Conservatives in 2011 , namely the 'Fixed-term Parliaments Act'
With this , the only ways that an early GE can be called is due to a 'Motion of No Confidence' or by the Govt. calling an early GE......in both these cases , though , there would need to be a majority vote of 2/3rds which would make either option pretty unlikely.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby pbeardmore on Wed 06 May 2015, 8:42 am

Interesting, if you think that the Cons will get the most seats, why would the Lib Dems not support them and continue the five year partnership/coalition. I cant see any reason why the Lib Dems would support Lab when Cons had more seats,
the lead that the SNP have in Scotland locks them into a signifficant block of seats, many more than the Lib Dems could dream of, they will be the power brokers IMHO
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby tankbuster on Wed 06 May 2015, 9:04 am

I think that this election may see a big change in votes but outside of Scotland not a great change in seats especially for Cons and Lab. On that basis I think a Conservative majority is likely but whether there are enough Lib Dems left to entertain a coalition is a big question.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby pbeardmore on Wed 06 May 2015, 9:43 am

Conservative majority is 7/1 with William Hilll/Ladbrokes, there could be some cash to be made for anyone who thinks this could happen,

more like 10/1 in my book but a last min swing to Con is possible for those who still have nagging doubts about EM and his record on the economy.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby stuart n on Wed 06 May 2015, 11:25 am

tankbuster wrote:I think that this election may see a big change in votes but outside of Scotland not a great change in seats especially for Cons and Lab. On that basis I think a Conservative majority is likely but whether there are enough Lib Dems left to entertain a coalition is a big question.


Agreed. Just seen the news and SNP are at 50% in Scotland, Labour are at 25% so the SNP look like they'll wipe out Labour North of the border. Can the tories win enough of their voters back from UKIP to try and go it alone? Probably not so I think a Con/ Lib Dem coalition is the most likely outcome. And the fact Miliband and Balls are back tracking over what they said at the last election they seem to think a hung parliament will be the result as well.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby pbeardmore on Wed 06 May 2015, 11:41 am

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

Cons will have to win around 15 more seats than predicted plus the Lib Dems hold their prediction (hard/impossible as some Con gains will be at sacrifice of Lib/Dems), cant see it happening myself, but equally Lab are right on the margins with getting enough seats to make it worthwhile even speaking to the SNP,

if you had a clean sheet of paper, you could not come up with a worse scenario regarding the lack of clear, stable government, its going to be a wild ride and some big names will be jobless by the end of next week,
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby ArabJazzie on Wed 06 May 2015, 11:45 am

As much as i would love it to happen, the SNP will not close out Scotland. Lib dems will be the big looser up here thanks to their alliance but Labours support in key areas will see them keep at least a quarter of their seats.

Doon Sooth, I think the Tories will loose 2 or 3 seats to UKIP, but Labour might make some gains over the Lib Dems which will see a 3 way Labour/SNP/Lib Dem alliance taking up residence in Downing Street.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 06 May 2015, 11:53 am

ArabJazzie wrote:which will see a 3 way Labour/SNP/Lib Dem alliance taking up residence in Downing Street.

Except for the fact that ( as I've already posted ) Milliband has categorically stated on numerous occasions that Labour will NOT be going into coalition with anybody.
Oh , and the LD have said they won't go into coalition with the SNP.
Unless , of course , they've all been telling lies. :whistle:
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Russ on Wed 06 May 2015, 12:05 pm

I suspect it'll be "as you were" with a Con/Lib Dem coalition sadly. Politics in general in the UK has become a desperately sorry state of affairs. Stopping the idiots of UKIP from getting any MP's has be the most important thing, but I can see them getting a few.

The print media seems to have somehow lowered themselves to new depths over the past few days. :claypole:
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby pbeardmore on Wed 06 May 2015, 12:21 pm

Millliband has said no coaltion with the SNP and no deal with the SNP, thats a lie as he could not seen to be thinking about that before the big day,
there will be a backrom deal with the SNP for support on a vote by vote basis and , once thats done, Clegg would rather be part of that deal than on the opposition benches (hard for any of them to give up power once you have had a taste for it), which leaves the concernatives out in the cold , will DC take the blame for the loss and Boris to come in for an Autumn election? Boris for PM by Christmas? watch this space!
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Mooshie1956 on Wed 06 May 2015, 12:34 pm

I think that the Tories will get most seats, if they try to form a minority government as predicted on here I honestly can't see them getting any bills past as the majority Labour, SNP, etc have all said they won't work with a Tory government, Tories only have Lib/Dem and UKIP as possible support.
Labour can run a minority government as quite a few of the policies are held in the same view by the SNP etc. Ending austerity being the major agenda on most of the parties manifesto's.
One thing I feel certain about, British politics will change forever as a result of this election.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby DerekF on Wed 06 May 2015, 12:36 pm

I suspect Russ is right. More of the Con-Dem coalition - then the best we can hope for is that the Liberals will stop a damaging vote on Europe and exit from the EU which place the UK in the economic backwater for decades.

I'm still hopeful that if Labour have the most MPs then a minority administration could work. If a coalition with the SNP is necessary but ruled out then I'm not sure Labour supporters will react well if Ed Miliband turns down the chance of being power. On the other hand fair play if he sticks to his principles even if no-one else does.

Then again anything must be better than Boris Johnson - God help us if he ever gets the reins of power. Even Cameron is a better option (although there's not much in it)
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Mooshie1956 on Wed 06 May 2015, 12:37 pm

pbeardmore wrote:Millliband has said no coaltion with the SNP and no deal with the SNP, thats a lie as he could not seen to be thinking about that before the big day,
there will be a backrom deal with the SNP for support on a vote by vote basis and , once thats done, Clegg would rather be part of that deal than on the opposition benches (hard for any of them to give up power once you have had a taste for it), which leaves the concernatives out in the cold , will DC take the blame for the loss and Boris to come in for an Autumn election? Boris for PM by Christmas? watch this space!


I'm not so sure it will be DC taking the blame but I can see Osborne being the fall guy.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby pbeardmore on Wed 06 May 2015, 12:41 pm

From a pure stability perspective, a Con/Lib coaltion would be the best outcome as we know it has worked (in stability context) for five years but where are the additional 15 seats coming from for this to be a possibility?
I have a vested interested as I have promised a friend a pint of bitter for every seat the Cons get past an overall majority
Re the Con leadership, Boris is ruthless and will mount a challenge early IMHO and he is much better at stirring up the natiionalist (anti scots) emotions than DC which will be key if SNP are supporting a Labour gov.
Last edited by pbeardmore on Wed 06 May 2015, 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 06 May 2015, 12:55 pm

DerekF wrote:Then again anything must be better than Boris Johnson - God help us if he ever gets the reins of power. Even Cameron is a better option (although there's not much in it)

At least Cameron doesn't hate motorists as much as BJ does ........ mind you , I don't think anybody ( including the Greens ) hates motorists as much as BJ does !!
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby farnboroughrob on Wed 06 May 2015, 1:07 pm

Personally I see (and hope for ) more of the same. We know it will be a hung parliament but I see the Tories getting 10-15 more seats than Labor. There has been lots of 'red line' talk from the
lib-dems and it did not include the EU referendum. To me this means they are ready for another 5 years to Tory coalition. The unknown of course is UKIP, I really wonder if they will get any more than 4 or 5 seats, or even none at all?
I just hope thats its all done and dusted by this time next week and we can all get on with better things, like airshows!
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Vodka on Wed 06 May 2015, 1:19 pm

I actually hope for a tory lib dem again. . given the crap we were in! We're not doing too bad considering.

Frankly, how on Earth a party (SNP) could be in control with their complete ethos of leaving the UK and its parliament beggars belief. There again if this was to happen. Labour may never govern the country again in my lifetime. Which isn't too bad a thing at all.

Hung parliament outcome I'm' guessing though.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby DanH on Wed 06 May 2015, 2:08 pm

I could see the Lib Dems faring better as part of a Labour lead coalition than they did with the Conservatives.
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Re: Lets call the GE result

Postby Russ on Wed 06 May 2015, 2:24 pm

DanH wrote:I could see the Lib Dems faring better as part of a Labour lead coalition than they did with the Conservatives.

Don't have much time for the Lib Dems, but it's terrifying to think how much worse things would have been under a Tory majority. They won't get the credit that maybe they deserve. With the austerity to get far worse after this election as well. :hide:
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