Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby starbuck on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 9:38 am

Totally agree. I was with my dad the other day and as I was listening to him talking about the good old days I was thinking to myself that his stories about the good old days aren't quite as good as the ones my grandad used to tell me.....
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 9:41 am

Nostalgia is one thing but when it becomes a driving force to leave the EU, it's a concern IMHO.

Leaving the EU is about looking to the future and not trying to return to the "good old days". Those days are gone whether we are in or out.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby tankbuster on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 9:48 am

pbeardmore wrote:Went round to my mum and dad's for a cuppa yesterday and got chatting about Brexit (they both voted out) , if their lack of knowledge and twisted values is in any way representative of the overall electorate , then democracy is a dangerous thing:

" The French have never liked us", "We'lll get our oranges from California", "Don't forget the Battle of the Bulge", "It's all Ted Heath's fault", etc etc


Wow, they make Jason R-M appear very moderate
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 9:51 am

My mum also mentioned Agincourt! I kid you not. 100% pure Daily Mail
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 10:07 am

Wonder why they picked The Battle of the Bulge in particular?

Most of us have been thinking about the wonderful Mary Ellis over the last day or two. I would not be at all surprised if she would have approved of a lot of what your parents have been saying (perhaps including Agincourt, which I agree is a bit of a stretch!) if so, would we have though any less of her?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby starbuck on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 10:09 am

tankbuster wrote:
pbeardmore wrote:Went round to my mum and dad's for a cuppa yesterday and got chatting about Brexit (they both voted out) , if their lack of knowledge and twisted values is in any way representative of the overall electorate , then democracy is a dangerous thing:

" The French have never liked us", "We'lll get our oranges from California", "Don't forget the Battle of the Bulge", "It's all Ted Heath's fault", etc etc


Wow, they make Jason R-M appear very moderate



Jason Rees Mogg? that's brilliant. :lol:

I wouldn't be so hard on your mum and dad;

1. We could get our oranges from California - they might cost £5 each and be green with mould but we could.
2. Not forgetting the Battle of the Bulge is good advice - a cracking sunday afternoon movie so worth looking out for whenever it's on. Robert Shaw with platinum blonde hair standing atop his Patton tank masquerading as a King Tiger, what's not to like?
3. Ted Heath - probably best not to go there.
4. Agincourt - Bit confused why your mum brought that up? We won that one didn't we?
starbuck

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 10:22 am

starbuck wrote: Not forgetting the Battle of the Bulge is good advice - a cracking Sunday afternoon movie so worth looking out for whenever it's on. Robert Shaw with platinum blonde hair standing atop his Patton tank masquerading as a King Tiger, what's not to like?


Yes that must be it! :grin:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Dan O'Hagan on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 10:25 am

The thing shouldn't have been put to the public in any case, and even if it was, nobody over the age of 60 should have been asked. It is not their future that has been spunked away. You may as well get toddlers to vote on the quality of Zimmer-frames.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 10:31 am

The idea that you can email the major orange suppliers in California and they can some how conjure up enough oranges to replace the Spainish supply is pure bonkers (but it fits in with the agenda of "Britain does not need Europe"). Perfect example of trying to create and fit evidence around your decision rather than looking at the hard evidence.

Globally, Spain is the largest exporter, supplying around 1.6 million tonnes. Next come South Africa and Egypt at 1.1m tonnes each, and the US at just over 0.5m tonnes, although US exports to the EU are miniscule.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby starbuck on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 10:49 am

pbeardmore wrote:The idea that you can email the major orange suppliers in California and they can some how conjure up enough oranges to replace the Spainish supply is pure bonkers (but it fits in with the agenda of "Britain does not need Europe"). Perfect example of trying to create and fit evidence around your decision rather than looking at the hard evidence.

Globally, Spain is the largest exporter, supplying around 1.6 million tonnes. Next come South Africa and Egypt at 1.1m tonnes each, and the US at just over 0.5m tonnes, although US exports to the EU are miniscule.


Using the oranges as an example the quote above puts where the negotiations are going next into a nutshell for me. At the moment all of the negotiations have been with Tusk, Junker and Barnier, all EU men who are actually accountable to no-one. But the trade negotiations now open up the debate to the individual countries who are represented by elected governments and they are going to be getting leaned on pretty heavily by their own trade bodies to get a deal done. After all we do import more from the EU than we export to the EU.

I know nothing about world trade. Is there anything stopping us buying our oranges from Egypt or South Africa at the moment or is it just cheaper to get them from Spain (or any other EU country for that matter) because of the tariffs applied to products outside the EU?

Also - is it possible for us to do deals with African countries once we leave and then at the same time reduce down the amount of foreign aid that we give to said African country?

Finally if we are buying oranges from a plantation in Africa that is actually owned by 'Don Juan & Sons, Seville' presumably we are buying from the EU anyway?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 11:03 am

Dan O'Hagan wrote:The thing shouldn't have been put to the public in any case, and even if it was, nobody over the age of 60 should have been asked.


The fact is that it was, and they were. How do you pick an age cut-off point, why not 50 or 55 for instance? How many 18 or 19 year old's actually bothered to vote? If enough of the youth vote had actually managed to drag themselves away from Face Book or whatever turns them on for half an hour or so, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation. Sadly for some, the over-60's generally take their responsibilities seriously.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 11:10 am

Good questions and I dont have all the answers, but 2012 figurees show we imported 276,000 tons of oranges, vast majority from Spain,

if we want to import from another source, its not just about the tariif, it's about a supplier having the infrastracture to produce them, there is no surplus waiting to be purchesd by us. Either we pay a higher price to gain supply (plus transport costs will be higher) or we start building long term agreements so that investment can be made on the basis of long term sales.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 11:24 am

Dan O'Hagan wrote:The thing shouldn't have been put to the public in any case, and even if it was, nobody over the age of 60 should have been asked. It is not their future that has been spunked away. You may as well get toddlers to vote on the quality of Zimmer-frames.


Dan.

We have triggered Article 50. We have sent “divorce papers” into the WTO. The U.K. IS leaving the EU.

The time to complain and moan about us not leaving was before we invoked Article 50.

Even if, by some miracle, there was another referendum and the vote changed to Remain, or the government said “no, it’s not working, we are ignoring the referendum , for the good of the U.K., we are staying”.

The problem is we won’t be going back to the EU circa 2017, we would lose any “preferential” rebates or opt outs we had negotiated. We wouldn’t have any future opt outs or threats of vetos, the U.K. would be toothless in the EU. “What you going to do? Leave ? (Sniggers in the EU parliament). Sit down U.K. and suck it up like Greece”

You stop over 60s voting in your 2nd referendum and it’s still leave, then what, EUref3 for under 40s ?

Maybe we should just euthanase over 40s like in Logan’s Run. Useless parasites.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 11:45 am

ericbee123 wrote:Even if, by some miracle, there was another referendum and the vote changed to Remain, or the government said “no, it’s not working, we are ignoring the referendum , for the good of the U.K., we are staying”.

The problem is we won’t be going back to the EU circa 2017, we would lose any “preferential” rebates or opt outs we had negotiated. We wouldn’t have any future opt outs or threats of vetos, the U.K. would be toothless in the EU. “What you going to do? Leave ? (Sniggers in the EU parliament). Sit down U.K. and suck it up like Greece”


There are many that argue that even in such circumstances that would be preferential to a “no deal” scenario. And the current government and all the baiters from the sidelines should, but won’t, be held accountable for the most culturally, morally and economically disastrous u-turns in modern history.

Which is one of the reasons why I doubt it’ll happen. Look at the referendum itself. Vote Leave broke the Law. And absolutely nothing that suits the law-breaking has been done about it. Which is, again, part of why democracy is over-egged. It’s a pretty crap system of government. Better than most others, but still, really, just awful when exposed to liars, cheats, misinformation and *shudders* “fake news”, which has already been a problem, but is particularly rife at the moment.

But yes, I agree. Little point in arguing what should or shouldn’t have happened beyond the academic. Article 50 has no revocation clause. Without some colossal legal and political fudgery for which the appetite doesn’t exist, we’re leaving. Unless and until a second referendum is confirmed, we must focus on how we leave, and the consequences of it.

The good part about the WTO is that we aren’t, nor ever were, prevented from negotiating trade deals with WTO members at the same time as our Article 50 period negotiations. It’s what disgraced MP Liam Fox is supposed to be doing. Not really seen much from him so far.

But at least the civil service, ambivalent to the hot air from the MPs, seem to be doing what they can. Which is excellent.

Also, side note, there are a great many salient and cogent points made on here by most contributors. Ones worthy of discussion. And likewise people have discussed stuff with me, but I’ve not had the time to respond (cos we’ve all got lives to lead and beer to drink), so apologies if I have failed to respond to anyone discussing stuff with me. Just don’t have the time.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Mooshie1956 on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 12:47 pm

pbeardmore wrote:The idea that you can email the major orange suppliers in California and they can some how conjure up enough oranges to replace the Spainish supply is pure bonkers (but it fits in with the agenda of "Britain does not need Europe"). Perfect example of trying to create and fit evidence around your decision rather than looking at the hard evidence.

Globally, Spain is the largest exporter, supplying around 1.6 million tonnes. Next come South Africa and Egypt at 1.1m tonnes each, and the US at just over 0.5m tonnes, although US exports to the EU are miniscule.


Isn't that due to them using that GM stuff that the EU has banned, same as with bleached meats. Which we can fully expect to see once we leave the EU.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Mooshie1956 on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 12:55 pm

Dan O'Hagan wrote:The thing shouldn't have been put to the public in any case, and even if it was, nobody over the age of 60 should have been asked. It is not their future that has been spunked away. You may as well get toddlers to vote on the quality of Zimmer-frames.


So what you're saying Dan is that over 50% of the UK population is over 60, because all you seem to say is that it's all the over 60's fault so by your reckoning no one under 60 voted to leave. I would like to get the actual figures for age groups that voted leave.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 1:31 pm

Mooshie1956 wrote:I would like to get the actual figures for age groups that voted leave.


One of the few things not disputed, I think.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/h ... d-and-why/

The older the voters, the more likely they were to have voted to leave the EU. Nearly three quarters (73%) of 18 to 24 year-olds voted to remain, falling to under two thirds (62%) among 25-34s. A majority of those aged over 45 voted to leave, rising to 60% of those aged 65 or over. Most people with children aged ten or under voted to remain; most of those with children aged 11 or older voted to leave.


Pretty sure I read some data-crunch report sometime last year where it discovered that, if the referendum was held 12-18 months later, the amount of young people turning 18 and eligible to vote (on the proportions that young people turned out at the percentage of remain vs leave) and the number of elderly people who had passed away would result in us now remaining in the EU, rather than leaving.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 1:35 pm

If Cameron had had any clue, he would have known about this issue and delayed the vote as much as possible.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby starbuck on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 1:58 pm

Tommy wrote:
Mooshie1956 wrote:I would like to get the actual figures for age groups that voted leave.


One of the few things not disputed, I think.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/h ... d-and-why/

The older the voters, the more likely they were to have voted to leave the EU. Nearly three quarters (73%) of 18 to 24 year-olds voted to remain, falling to under two thirds (62%) among 25-34s. A majority of those aged over 45 voted to leave, rising to 60% of those aged 65 or over. Most people with children aged ten or under voted to remain; most of those with children aged 11 or older voted to leave.


Pretty sure I read some data-crunch report sometime last year where it discovered that, if the referendum was held 12-18 months later, the amount of young people turning 18 and eligible to vote (on the proportions that young people turned out at the percentage of remain vs leave) and the number of elderly people who had passed away would result in us now remaining in the EU, rather than leaving.



That may well be true.

I am a child of the 70's and all I can remember in the media growing up is how we were always being screwed by the EU. If the referendum had been held in 86,96 0r 06 I don't think the result would have been any different than 2016 but I would bet that the percentage of votes between leave and remain would have been vast.
Last edited by starbuck on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 2:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 2:28 pm

If you want an example of how deep and subtle the establishment 'programming' has been over the last decade or so, take a look at this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1n2Kq0tOO8

I mean, EU led peace support operation??? Heck, I'm surprised unicorns didn't come out the back of the Herc and the GR4's didn't fly through rainbows.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Mooshie1956 on Fri 27 Jul 2018, 9:46 pm

Thanks for posting those figures Tommy.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Sat 28 Jul 2018, 9:57 am

Mooshie1956 wrote:Thanks for posting those figures Tommy.


Yes, very helpful. :up:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Sat 28 Jul 2018, 8:47 pm

The older the voters, the more likely they were to have voted to leave the EU. Nearly three quarters (73%) of 18 to 24 year-olds voted to remain, falling to under two thirds (62%) among 25-34s. A majority of those aged over 45 voted to leave, rising to 60% of those aged 65 or over. Most people with children aged ten or under voted to remain; most of those with children aged 11 or older voted to leave.


But are these lies, damn lies or statistics ?

Is that 73% of the 100% who bothered to vote or 73% of 100% of 18-24 year olds. The young, who felt strongly to remain, went out and voted. So skewing the figures. A higher percentage of over 60s voted, maybe if those who wanted to remain or weren’t bothered, didn’t bother to vote that percentage for over 60s might have risen to 75% of over 60s.

Where I live, the vote was 70-30 to leave. Most people I know from 18 to 80 voted leave, I’m about the only person I know who voted to remain. I knew it would be a leave vote and I was surprised it was close to be honest.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby FarnboroJohn on Sat 28 Jul 2018, 9:26 pm

ericbee123 wrote:
The older the voters, the more likely they were to have voted to leave the EU. Nearly three quarters (73%) of 18 to 24 year-olds voted to remain, falling to under two thirds (62%) among 25-34s. A majority of those aged over 45 voted to leave, rising to 60% of those aged 65 or over. Most people with children aged ten or under voted to remain; most of those with children aged 11 or older voted to leave.


But are these lies, damn lies or statistics ?

Is that 73% of the 100% who bothered to vote or 73% of 100% of 18-24 year olds. The young, who felt strongly to remain, went out and voted. So skewing the figures. A higher percentage of over 60s voted, maybe if those who wanted to remain or weren’t bothered, didn’t bother to vote that percentage for over 60s might have risen to 75% of over 60s.

Where I live, the vote was 70-30 to leave. Most people I know from 18 to 80 voted leave, I’m about the only person I know who voted to remain. I knew it would be a leave vote and I was surprised it was close to be honest.


For that matter did the people consulted about how they voted tell the truth?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby LN Strike Eagle on Sat 28 Jul 2018, 10:53 pm

verreli wrote:The post by Eric above is highly encouraging. It's what you don't see or hear that's important. I liken being in the EU to being trapped in a thorn bush. Every time you move you get pricked to the point where you tell yourself, it's better not to move and stay trapped forever to avoid a bit of pain. Eric's post is the first two snips of the secateurs.

Sounds marvellous to me...

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