Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby iainpeden on Sat 14 Jul 2018, 8:53 pm

Two thoughts; the mess the current lot are making of the negotiations just proves that any body who wants to be politician shouldn't be allowed to be, and I really hope Cameron doesn't get a peerage after bottling out of the chaos he started.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Sat 14 Jul 2018, 9:29 pm

iainpeden wrote:Two thoughts; the mess the current lot are making of the negotiations just proves that any body who wants to be politician shouldn't be allowed to be, and I really hope Cameron doesn't get a peerage after bottling out of the chaos he started.


Agree on both counts but the negotiation situation has been caused by lack of leadership by May in that she was trying to appease two incompatible positions while appearing to deliver on the election manifesto.

As for Cameron, he may have initiated the vote but his hand was forced by the ground swell of opinion amongst the population. He thought he could win and put the issue to bed but left it too late, not helped by the total lack of flexibility by the EU during his so called negotiations. Ironically the EU may make some of the concessions he no doubt asked for due to problems in other EU countries.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 2:21 pm

Dan O'Hagan wrote:By ignoring thick gammon like that for the greater good of the country.


No government can call a referendum and then ignore the result, that would be the end of democracy. They need to find another way. And what on earth is this 'thick gammon' that you keep on about?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby iainpeden on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 4:23 pm

verreli wrote:
As for Cameron, he may have initiated the vote but his hand was forced by the ground swell of opinion amongst the population. He thought he could win and put the issue to bed but left it too late, not helped by the total lack of flexibility by the EU during his so called negotiations. Ironically the EU may make some of the concessions he no doubt asked for due to problems in other EU countries.


My view is that Cameron called the referendum more to stop the right wing of his party defecting to UKIP than a ground swell of popular opinion; if it had really been that strong the majority to leave would have been larger.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ArabJazzie on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 5:26 pm

AlexC wrote:
Dan O'Hagan wrote:By ignoring thick gammon like that for the greater good of the country.


No government can call a referendum and then ignore the result, that would be the end of democracy. They need to find another way. And what on earth is this 'thick gammon' that you keep on about?


I would hazard a guess........ :tumbleweed:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 6:02 pm

iainpeden wrote:My view is that Cameron called the referendum more to stop the right wing of his party defecting to UKIP than a ground swell of popular opinion; if it had really been that strong the majority to leave would have been larger.


Perhaps a bit of both. A couple of MP's defected but neither were credible. That's not to say more wouldn't follow as you say. My view is that UKIP was a protest party led by a charismatic man who many could relate to. It didn't have legs beyond a referendum but it was attracting more and more votes. I also think UKIP demonstrated there is space in the political spectrum for another party which is credible and could pose a threat to the 2.5 party system we have. I know there isn't a party that represents my views. If May doesn't deliver Brexit which is likely to be the case given the content of her white paper, the Conservative party will lose a lot of votes and that applies to Labour too if a new credible party is formed.

As for the referendum result; don't by misled by the precise majority. It's very hard for people to vote for change, especially when they have a good life like many do in the UK. I'm convinced that many went into the poling booth intent on voting leave and crossed remain from fear of change. Do not underestimate the power of the media and project fear. Despite that, leave won and I'm sure it horrified the establishment. That the negative press continued unabated tells you everything you should need to know about what they think of democracy and who the establishment are there to protect. A clue; it isn't the average Brit like me.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Dan O'Hagan on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 6:50 pm

AlexC wrote:And what on earth is this 'thick gammon' that you keep on about?


The 60+ year-old red-faced bigots who voted selfishly and along racist lines to p*ss on future generations who'll have to live with the mess they created.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 6:53 pm

Dan O'Hagan wrote:... to p*ss on future generations who'll have to live with the mess they created.


Can you quantify what you think this means to the average Brit living in the UK?
verreli

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Dan O'Hagan on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 7:06 pm

verreli wrote:
Dan O'Hagan wrote:... to p*ss on future generations who'll have to live with the mess they created.


Can you quantify what you think this means to the average Brit living in the UK?


Airbus pulling out
Rolls-Royce cutting jobs
Land Rover moving abroad
BMW moving abroad
Tariffs on imports and exports
Increased paperwork for business
Queues at passport control
Reliance on relationships with nutters like Trump
Visas
Carnets
Racial tensions
Unemployment

That good enough for starters? Of no interest to the older voters who'll be dead by the time the real mayhem hits us anyway.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 7:35 pm

All of these issues are short term, only in the long term will we know if Brexit was a good or bad thing. Queues at passport control are tiny, trivial issues compared to long term issues.

If Airbus pull out, it will be horrible but so was shutting down the coal mines but we adapt, as a nation and move on.

For example, it's possible (likley IMHO) that the EU will eventually break up and it will be one horrible fight. I think it's clear that each member is only a member out of self interest rather than any other reason and there is zero goodwill between nations at political level.. If it's hard for one member to leave, this will seem like a cakewalk compared to the whole thing fragmenting.

As a former member who, hopefully, will have got it's act together, we will be "well out of it" when the poo hits the fan.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 8:13 pm

Dan O'Hagan wrote:Airbus pulling out
Rolls-Royce cutting jobs
Land Rover moving abroad
BMW moving abroad
Tariffs on imports and exports
Increased paperwork for business
Queues at passport control
Reliance on relationships with nutters like Trump
Visas
Carnets
Racial tensions
Unemployment


Let me address some of your fears...

Companies moving will be in direct response to a business case. What you hear in the media is political lobbying because they don't want change. It costs an awful lot to restructure and the UK isn't a cheap place to base yourself so there's already a reason why they are here. For example, I manufacture in China because it's cheaper but the UK workforce has strength in depth which is difficult to offshore.

The paperwork is a non factor. Companies that export will already have people employed to deal with this and the additional required will not require extra expense through additional employment. Tariffs are a factor for some businesses and this will be the main consideration with respect to the business case. This depends on a trade deal but as I state above, to the UK as a whole it doesn't make a big difference because if tariffs are imposed on one thing, a counter tariff can be imposed to generate a zero sum game.

Some companies may well decide to leave and this could lead to unemployment but it is also possible, as an independent country, to incentivise companies to set up in the UK. That is a choice for government. As for big business, yes they employ many but as a percentage of the entire UK workforce they aren't as significant as you would think.

We are not members of schengen so have to carry a passport to visit the EU. The EU could impose a VISA system but that would not make sense. The UK already operates one of the largest VISA waiver programmes in the world so why would they impose something when we would just go tit for tat?

There is more likely to be racial tension if we have free borders. The problem is that different cultures are arriving and not integrating. This is what causes the tension.

Your comment about Trump is overly melodramatic. As a sitting president he has, at most, 6 years remaining and an independent UK is for much much longer. Being part of a closed high tariff group is simply not good business and has held back the UK for years as can be seen if you do some research. The largest future growth areas are China, India and Brazil and bespoke relationships with these countries will benefit the UK far more than any relationship with the EU.

pbeardmore - Now that's a much better reasoned post.
Last edited by verreli on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 9:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
verreli

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ArabJazzie on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 8:29 pm

Dan O'Hagan wrote:Airbus pulling out
Rolls-Royce cutting jobs
Land Rover moving abroad
BMW moving abroad
Tariffs on imports and exports
Increased paperwork for business
Queues at passport control
Reliance on relationships with nutters like Trump
Visas
Carnets
Racial tensions
Unemployment

That good enough for starters? Of no interest to the older voters who'll be dead by the time the real mayhem hits us anyway.

Airbus, what was their reason for wanting to move production the last time, time before that, time before that etc..... Here! Have some subsidies! OK!, we stay!
Rolls Royce, thought that was more to do with victims of their own development, ie fewer engines require remanufacturing? See above.
Land Rover, Indian owned company, certainly no surprise to me. See above.
BMW/Mini, German company, certainly no surprise to me. See above.
Tariffs, Cant see VAG, Ford and BMW allowing that to happen or we will end up all driving Vauxhalls, Nissans, Hondas, Kia, Hyundai, etc, etc....
Paperwork, Where have you been for the last 30 years?
Queues, very little change.
Nutters, plenty in Europe as well!
Visas, very little change!
Carnets, dont know anything about them.
Racial Tensions, Get a grip!
Unemployment, What are you trying to say, the Tories will massage the figures yet again to meet the agenda at the time?

Yes there are bad times ahead, but by the time i retire, i am 100% sure the country will be on the up again.
Arabest,
Geoff.
52 in a year! We must be certifiable!
ArabJazzie

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby reheat module on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 8:58 pm

Dan O'Hagan wrote:
AlexC wrote:And what on earth is this 'thick gammon' that you keep on about?


The 60+ year-old red-faced bigots who voted selfishly and along racist lines to p*ss on future generations who'll have to live with the mess they created.

Wow, got away with that, I was only 58 when I gleefully voted.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Mooshie1956 on Sun 15 Jul 2018, 10:13 pm

reheat module wrote:
Dan O'Hagan wrote:
AlexC wrote:And what on earth is this 'thick gammon' that you keep on about?


The 60+ year-old red-faced bigots who voted selfishly and along racist lines to p*ss on future generations who'll have to live with the mess they created.

Wow, got away with that, I was only 58 when I gleefully voted.


And I voted remain, so that lets me off the hook :grin:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 5:16 am

AlexC wrote:
No government can call a referendum and then ignore the result, that would be the end of democracy...


Quite considerably untrue. The referendum was purposely decided by the government at the time to be advisory and non-binding.

And democracy isn’t some sacred cow that a lot of people hold it up to be. Screaming “DEMOCRACY” after you win a vote by a tiny percentage amount (be under no doubt that leave and those saying “you lost, get over it” would have been campaigning hard for a second referendum if they lost) isn’t democracy. This is different to general elections where we get to decide to change our vote every 5 years, this is permanent.

It’s not some sacred thing to be worshipped. It’s just a system of running things. It happens to be much better than many other systems, but all it is is an idea of convenience. Nothing more.

Democracy is at its absolute worse when the electorate are uninformed, misled, and promised things that will never materialise. That’s always been present in politics, but was rife in Brexit. And spectacular misinformation was rank and rife surrounding Brexit (many say on both sides, but Leave.EU and co put stuff out that was far more cancerous than anything I’ve seen from camp remain).

Vote leave broke the law campaigning for Brexit. It’s very logical to say, if one party broke the law campaigning for a vote on something, that said advisory referendum would be void. But of course obfuscation and hot wind from Boris and Mogg and Farage was quick to put up a smoke screen around that.

The referendum was advisory, not binding, politicians are not there to do what we tell them - we elect them, in theory, to make decisions on our behalf, they are, again in theory, supposed to be the best of us, and have a duty to act in what they believe is our best interests even if we have no idea what our own best interests are, and should have the guts to stand up to be straight with their own voters, and democracy is like anything else, the best of all the pretty flawed ideas on how to run things, nothing more.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 8:03 am

Listening to Radio 4's 'Farming Today' on Saturday, farmers don't seem to be very happy with it, or with the Brexit negotiations in general.
Those who grow labour-intensive crops which can't be mechanically harvested ( predominately fruit ) initially weren't happy when the EU introduced the Working Time Directive because the regulations on recording individual hours worked made it too difficult to employ the traditional casual labour ( holiday-makers & students ) but they were happy when the 'free movement' regulations meant they could employ European workers instead.
Now, they're finding it difficult to attract the European workers ( predominantly from Latvia & Lithuania ) because of the uncertainty of the continuation of 'free movement' ( and that's before Brexit happens ) yet they still won't really be able to use the aforementioned casual UK labour because the Working Time Directive looks to be retained in it's entirety.
And before anyone says about using British workers, that question was asked....the reply was "We tried employing local labour - we got 3 people"

Edited to add...
As has been pointed out increasingly in recent months, the '52%' was only 52% of those who bothered to vote.....the actual percentage if you take into account the number eligable to vote was only something like 38%
And how many times have people complained when the party who win the General Election only do so with that sort of % claiming it's not representative of the people.
That's one of the things Cameron cocked up on, despite people saying so beforehand....he should have specified that a minimum percentage of people should have voted, or that the result should have represented a minimum percentage of those eligible to vote.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 8:34 am

A referendum is different from a general election. It's one straight forward question (obvioulsy with complex remifications), its not like an election where you may not like "the system" or may not like any of the candidates in your area.

The vote was in or out. If people chose not to vote, what would be their motivation other than "cant be bothered/don't care"

I cant find any records of remainers being unhappy with the format of the vote before the result. Its just another example re moaning and bleating after the vote has taken place. There is no reason to have a minimum turnout. And if the turnout was not reached, then the vote is null and void and we stay in? A clear advantage to the remainers who, knowing this, would be more than happy with a low turnout. So the remainers go door knocking:

"How do you plan to vote?"
"Can't be bothered really."
"Perfect, thanks very much"

why would it be the job of Brexiters to get the turnout up to the required level?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 9:05 am

Because a minimum turnout would have negated a lot of the arguments which have occurred post-referendum.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 10:54 am

[quote="Tommy"]]The referendum was purposely decided by the government at the time to be advisory and non-binding.

That has been argued over ever since the holding of the referendum. If it can be proved to have been advisory and non-binding then that would be the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 11:25 am

Brevet Cable wrote:Because a minimum turnout would have negated a lot of the arguments which have occurred post-referendum.


Rigging the system to negate arguments is not very democratic. Its the 48% Remainers that are creating most of the arguments IMHO as they don't understand the basics of the process.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 11:28 am

AlexC wrote:
Tommy wrote:]The referendum was purposely decided by the government at the time to be advisory and non-binding.

That has been argued over ever since the holding of the referendum. If it can be proved to have been advisory and non-binding then that would be the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned.


Surely if it was “Advisory” then Mr Cameron the morning after would have said:

“The British people have spoken and expressed their wish to leave the EU, I will now go back to the EU, armed with this information and try once again to get the concessions we need to ensure our sovereignty and our continued membership of the EU. If they don’t agree this time we will have a binding referendum with an IN - OUT choice again, but this time it will count !”

Not :

“ Oh dear , see you, I’m off”.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 1:00 pm

AlexC wrote:
Tommy wrote:]The referendum was purposely decided by the government at the time to be advisory and non-binding.

That has been argued over ever since the holding of the referendum. If it can be proved to have been advisory and non-binding then that would be the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned.


Wrong way around. It is those who seek to rely on the referendum being binding that need to prove that it was so.

The reason is because, and I’ve said this before in the Brexit thread, by default, as a matter of law, unless the ministers enacting the legislation necessary to hold a referendum put something in said legislation expressly saying that it is binding, then it is advisory. The legislation for the EU Referendum has nothing in it to say that the result would be binding. Ministers know this. And if they don’t, they are advised on this. Consequently, not including the wording to say it is binding was done on purpose. Therefore, as a matter of law, it was only advisory. It can’t be anything else.

How politically costly it would be to decide not to follow the advice given by the electorate in the referendum, or whatever, is a completely separate matter. As a matter of law, the referendum is not legally binding.

S’got nothing to do with what Cameron said after the result, or anything like that.

Edit - or, put it another way; if the government decided not to leave, or whatever, on this particular referendum, there is nothing that someone can run to court with and use it force the Government to make Britain leave the EU. Which is why Brexiters bang on about the nonsensical “will of the people”, and not “section XYZ, paragraph A.B(C) of this law that says we *have* to leave now that the result of the referendum is known”.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 1:28 pm

pbeardmore wrote:
Brevet Cable wrote:Because a minimum turnout would have negated a lot of the arguments which have occurred post-referendum.


Rigging the system to negate arguments is not very democratic. Its the 48% Remainers that are creating most of the arguments IMHO as they don't understand the basics of the process.

Not rigging.
And yet again we get the usual crap about "Remainers don't understand" :roll:
Care to remind us what Farage said before the referendum?

The Conservatives have made a mess of the negotiations, with May being more concerned about keeping the Party together & the hard-liners ( and the obnoxious back-stabbing bandwaggon-jumper Boris ) being more concerned with ousting May & sticking two fingers up at the EU without being bothered about the consequences for either industry or Joe Public.
Somewhat too late, May appears to have realised that pandering to the likes of DD, JRM & BJ isn't the best idea.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby pbeardmore on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 1:29 pm

"Therefore, as a matter of law",

You have not included convention within your argument (and are only referring to law via statute). With no written constitutional, convention plays a pivitol role within our system. Holding a referendum and executing the wishes of the majority is a very strong convention with no precedent to break the convention. Holding a referendum and then saying "thanks for your opinion, we will think some more but we may ignore what you think" has zero place within our constitution.

For all May's faults (too many to mention) even she grasps the basics of this as does every MP.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby verreli on Mon 16 Jul 2018, 1:30 pm

Technically correct Tommy but morally...?

Here's a link to the booklet of lies sent by the government. On page 14 it states 'This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide.' May's white paper does not do this and if she persists, it could lead to a breach of trust with politics with far reaching implications and consequences. On Wednesday after PMQ's Boris will make a speech in parliament. I can't wait. I hope he unloads both metaphorical barrels. As I've said before, these are fascinating constitutional times that will be studied for years.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf
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