Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby tankbuster81 on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 7:49 am

Tommy wrote:Not much of a contribution, I know, but I really dislike the word “gammon” used in the way it is these days. :sick:


Totally agree, it's up there with the much over used phrase...."binary"
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 10:22 am

Apparently 'gammon' in the context that it's currently being used was started by that smug git Owen Jones who's got one of those faces that's just asking to be punched, not that I'm in any way a violent person I hasten to add. :oops:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby AlexC on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 10:25 am

FarnboroJohn wrote:How ironic that "Geben sie mir ein Staffel Spitfeure" was a German line....


Spoken by Adolf Galland if I remember correctly?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 12:28 pm

A few of my friends “In The City” voted Leave. They are brokers who buy and sell shares for people. If the people win or lose, doesn’t matter to them as the “people” pay them a commission regardless. All they care about is that a market is volatile and people are buying and selling. A stable market means they don’t earn as much.

Oh. And they just happen to be incredibly racist too. They are also under 40.

Anyway - there are 10 type of people in this world, those that understand binary and those that don’t.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 4:59 pm

Today’s rant.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45303280

The EU give U.K. science £2 Billion funding and this is “at risk” if there is a No Deal.

As I said, a No Deal means the EU don’t get the Divorce Settlement of £40 Billion. So we can give the U.K. science people £3 Billion ( a billion more ) and still be quids in.

There is a reason the EU “give” £billions to U.K. science and universities. We are the worlds 5th biggest economy, why do we need EU grants ? We don’t. The EU “give” us these grants so they get acccess to the world class scientists that the world’s 5th biggest economy produces.

A No Deal is different to a “bad” deal, whereby we pay a divorce settlement and still get royally shafted. That’s the mythical “bad deal” that is far worse than a No Deal where we get shafted but don’t pay a divorce bill - as there is No Deal.

Edit -the logical counter argument is that the U.K. must honour its commitment to the EU but can “do one” in negotiations with the EU. If that isn’t the EU cherry picking what the U.K. can and can’t do , while saying we can’t do the same then I don’t know what is.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby cg_341 on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 6:19 pm

ericbee123 wrote:As I said, a No Deal means the EU don’t get the Divorce Settlement of £40 Billion.

Whilst that is true, you then manage to base every other statement on the assumption that the current status quo in terms of our economy remains the same.

If no deal dumps £50bn off our GDP, then we're worse off.

If no deal means that manufacturing giants such as Unilever, GSK, Airbus, etc. leave the UK, then we'll be worse off.

If no deal puts us in to hitherto unseen levels of austerity then £40bn is going to be a drop in the ocean for most families, who of course won't see a penny of it as companies begin to shed jobs, or even if they manage to keep their job, as the nursery puts little Timmy's weekly daycare cost up by 70% in an attempt to remain profitable.

If no deal means that every company currently in the UK remains in the UK, produces as much as it is currently produces, and exports all that at exactly the same volume and price as it currently is, then yes, you may be right. I wouldn't want to consider the odds of that though...

Sorry, I just can't believe "no deal means we'll have £40bn to play with". Next you'll be telling me the NHS will have £350m extra to spend.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 6:28 pm

Sorry. I’m scared people might post in between my edits and I will be accused of changing my post again.
So double posting again.

Going back to Boris’ bus. £350 million a week equates to £4.2 Billion a year we used to (still do) send the EU.

Now the claim we could spend on that on the nhs is debatable ( if anyone wants to argue it said - “we send £350 million a week to the EU let’s fund the NHS instead”. It didn’t say they would get all the £350 million and it didn’t say the NHS costs us £1.2 Billion a week so £350 million wouldn’t make a bit of diffference if they got it all anyway. It could be that instead of sending £350 million a week we fund the NHS a pound a week instead. It doesn’t specify any amount other than what we send the EU. - it might imply that the NHS could get that, but it doesn’t say that ). Let’s assume £350 million a week is correct. £4.2 Billion is what it theoretically cost us to be EU members. The £40 Billion divorce money is over a decades worth of EU money from the U.K. If that’s not a bargaining chip then I can’t picture a better bargaining chip !!
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 6:43 pm

I don’t base anything on any status quo. I base it on the fact that we will get at least 10% import duty on EU goods into HMT bank account.

If the Pound devalues another %age point it makes exports cheaper.

A strong pound means exports are worse off and imports are cheaper.

A weak pound ( as we now have ) makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive.

The best thing about Brexit is the U.K. controls its currency.

If you are a U.K. manufacturer making 100% U.K. goods for the U.K. market then Brexit doesn’t effect you.

If you export then the pound falling 30 % since 2016 means that so long as the EU don’t charge 30% on your product, it’ll still be cheaper.


If you import, the goods are now 30% more expensive. If we choose to add an import duty imports will be even more expensive.

A falling pound is good for exports and bad for imports.

The reverse is true, but the Pound IS falling.

We are fed rubbish from the press that says “the pound is weak”. It is if you want to go on holiday in Spain, but not if you want to export your goods to Spain. They are a lot cheaper in Spain now. So they buy more.

The U.K. will still have the 4th largest economy in 2020.

If NI and Scotland break away, then the U.K. will still have the 4th largest economy in 2020.

[ edit. A United Ireland will go from 23rd to 19th if England keep the same investment in NI - Scotland will be something like 27th - if England keep the same investment in it ]

We don’t just sneak into the G8 as an “also ran”, the U.K. is a major player on the world stage, no matter how much we try to play our importance down. “We used to be a world player but we aren’t now !!”

We are the worlds 4th largest economy !!! Responsible for most of the worlds most recent scientific breakthroughs.

If you don’t want to do business with us, then more fool you.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby LN Strike Eagle on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 7:39 pm

"You really are an oafish philistine at times!"
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Sat 25 Aug 2018, 9:50 pm

Ok. You all win. There will be a second Brexit referendum and remain will win.

You never gave it a chance and doubted the UK could go it alone and make a success of it.

You might also be very surprised when the second referendum returns an even biggger margin for leave, but you will probably put 3 options , 2 of which split the Leave vote and Remain win with say 43% Remain. 30% Leave No Deal and 27% Leave with EFT rules, being the split.

Claiming your 43% is the real willl of the people. With the largest majority in favour of Remaining.

Well done.

If only you had seen that a fallling pound helped exporters and helped the U.K. case re: imports. ( it makes imports from the EU more expensive, so it puts pressure on the EU to do a deal and stop us slapping import duty on them as well ).

A falling pound makes the U.K. more favourable to visit, invest in and buy stuff from, but you want your San Miguel to cost less ( relative ) in Benidorm or you want to buy American aircraft now, so a falling pound is bad.

I’m not suggesting it’s a long term strategy.

It gets us a much stronger bargaining position as we can control the market rate of imports and exports as we control our own money.

Once we get a deal ( or if we don’t ) and we are free from Europe. If it works and we are all prosperous, then the Pound will rise. It will hurt exporters ( more than any import duty - exports are more at risk from a really strong pound ) but we can then buy loads of American and EU imported stuff a lot cheaper again.

Edited - to make a bit more sense now my battery isn’t running out ( and I’m sober !)
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 12:42 am

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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 9:00 am

Eric Bee's despairing post totally captures the feeling that so many of us have.

There was a vote - a decision was made - let's make it work.

I would be supporting a federal Europe had the vote gone the other way, but, thank goodness, it didn't. Let's sort it out.

We should have united on this issue the day after the referendum, but unfortunately Cameron (our worst prime minister in decades) decided to throw in the towel at the exact moment when leadership was needed the most.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Paul_Reflex on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 9:30 am

MiG_Eater wrote:Eric Bee's despairing post totally captures the feeling that so many of us have.

There was a vote - a decision was made - let's make it work.

I would be supporting a federal Europe had the vote gone the other way, but, thank goodness, it didn't. Let's sort it out.

We should have united on this issue the day after the referendum, but unfortunately Cameron (our worst prime minister in decades) decided to throw in the towel at the exact moment when leadership was needed the most.


In a way I agree with you, I really wish I could get behind Brexit. But it's truly impossible to get behind something which is so disagreeable. There's no way on earth I can support the nationalist sentiment, no way I can support the massive economic damage to the poorest communities in our country and certainly no way I can support Liam Fox doing a backhanded trade deal behind closed doors which will give the US healthcare industry unfettered access to the NHS 'market'
(amongst other horrors).

If there is anything that can be done to stop it then I'll support what ever it takes.

Interestingly in Sweden last weekend there was lots of talk about Swexit in their election coverage. Poor buggers!
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 10:35 am

The thing is, we can vote the Tories out after Brexit. I'm with you on the NHS - but until Labour get behind Brexit, the Tories are here to stay.

I would always argue that Brexit is an anti-nationalist movement, if you consider the EU (as I do) to be an embryonic nation in itself. It is a move away from the empire building of the EU and a move back to Britain as a small, independent sovereign nation that is now, at last, able to go back to the good old days of reasonable immigration from all over the world, rather than unlimited immigration from the relatively small cultural space of Europe.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Dan O'Hagan on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 10:42 am

MiG_Eater wrote:There was a vote - a decision was made - let's make it work.


I don't know an intelligent person who won't fight Brexit against with their last breath.

I and millions of others refuse to let our country walk willingly into an abyss voted for by people so mind-numbingly stupid they allowed themselves to be conned by Russian-sponsored spivs playing to their basest prejudices and making promises grounded in not a scintilla of fact.

What is criminal, is that not one mainstream party is prepared to call out the Emperor's New Clothes for what they are, for fear of upsetting the simpletons in the 52% in case there's civil unrest.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby LN Strike Eagle on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 10:43 am

Gibberish like "let's make it work" really grates. It's a meaningless catch phrase spouted by people without a clue of the implications of what is going to happen. How do we "make it work" when the plans the government has in place include stockpiling tinned foods and rationing fuel supplies? Where is the upside to that and how are 'we' to make the best of it? Smile when we're queuing to get our allocations?

Everything you buy will become more expensive. 'We' don't control international trade - we just have to go along with the damaging exercise to remove ourselves from all existing arrangements and pay through the nose to attempt to carry on as we are now. The reality is people won't deal with us when they can source a comparable product from someone within the EU, or someone that has a deal with the EU.

Stuff like this is quite eye opening, I recommend everyone watch/listen to this episode in particular. There are others but so far they've mostly covered the same ground and this one has the most content overall. It is alarming to say the least.

https://youtu.be/Sx4AF-3Rd44
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 10:49 am

The problem is that PMTM & her minions have made an absolute shambles of the negotiations.
When she refused the offer of cross-party cooperation on negotiations and her prime negotiators were hard-line 'no deal' Brexiters & bandwagon-jumpers who from the off set out to antagonise their EU counterparts, you just knew it was going to be a mess ( despite the best efforts of the Civil Servants trying their best to get things done in the background )

There's a huge gulf between accepting that it'll almost certainly happen & getting behind the current shambles.
Heck, every other Country whose currency is bombing on the International Exchanges see it as a disaster and try to reverse the trend.....as opposed to the idiots in this Country who are jubilant that Sterling is crash-diving because they see it as the only way to attract trade. :facepalm:

Edited to add...
PMTM's currently running around various second- and third-world Countries in Africa trying to get trade deals ( by offering loads of our money ).......says it all, I'd say. :roll:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 11:27 am

I was nearly pointing out that a 10% devaluation of the pound against the euro negates a 10% import duty imposed on U.K. goods and increases a 10% U.K. import duty on EU goods which are already more expensive because of the exchange rate.

So it helps in negotiations.

A rising pound makes U.K. exports more expensive and increases the effect of EU import duty on U.K. goods. It makes EU goods cheaper to import. So if we were adding 10% import duty and the pound increased by 10% after Brexit it would negate the import duty.

A falling pound helps exports, makes it cheaper to invest in the U.K., visit the U.K. and buy U.K. goods.

A rising pound helps imports, makes it cheaper to buy EU goods.

Argue that it doesn’t !!

I’m not an idiot.

Edit. And I don’t think it’s the only way to attract investment. I said it helps investment as it makes U.K. cheaper to invest in if your Euro, dollar or Yen buys you more stuff or it costs you less to invest the same amount of pounds in a business
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 11:38 am

The trouble is, i'm perfectly happy to engage 'remainers' in debate but virtually every time I do it is utterly pointless, since before even beginning it has been decided that i'm a moron or a racist.

What I mean by 'Let's make it work' is that we, as the population of the country, need to get behind the decision and support our negotiators in sorting out a decent deal for us. Constantly re-fighting the referendum only means we'll end up with a poorer deal, or forever remain in limbo.

One of the arguments I have heard for remaining in the EU is that as a net contributor our financial contributions are vital to helping poorer countries in the EU, and yet - it's also constantly argued the EU will only be willing to do a deal with us that makes us even poorer as a nation than when we were contributing to the EU budget. The only possible way this could be true is if the EU is enacting punitive measures on any country that has the gall to leave its club. I'll happily take a financial hit if it means that we have separated ourselves from a club (or cartel) like that.

The EU does some really good things, but it has regularly shown itself to be tyrannical. Any political organisation that decides that the greater good is more important than democracy is not one i'd like to be a part of.

If only Tony Benn was still about.
Last edited by MiG_Eater on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 11:42 am

Dan O'Hagan wrote:
MiG_Eater wrote:There was a vote - a decision was made - let's make it work.


What is criminal, is that not one mainstream party is prepared to call out the Emperor's New Clothes for what they are, for fear of upsetting the simpletons in the 52% in case there's civil unrest.


We had a general election where the Liberal Democrats went out on a second referendum, anti-Brexit ticket. Their vote utterly collapsed.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 12:03 pm

The Euro and the Dollar are still weaker than the Great British Pound.

You would all prefer to have Germany’s or the USA’s economy and their currency is weaker than the GBP.

The Pound Is strong and our economy is weak but we believe the news that our Pound should be even stronger against these weak currencies in strong economies.

As a net importer it’s probably true that we need a strong pound to buy German and American goods cheaper. That’s indicative of our poor economy
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby disgruntled on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 12:24 pm

What is criminal, is that not one mainstream party is prepared to call out the Emperor's New Clothes for what they are, for fear of upsetting the simpletons in the 52% in case there's civil unrest.[/quote]

The irony of this is quite astounding. Notwithstanding any political views I may or may not have, isn't this comment akin to "Oh look all the other dancers have turned the wrong way. Our Jenny is the only one who has got it right!" Or something of similar effect.

If you are going to make an argument at least come up with something intelligent that adds substance to the debate. Calling out a "majority" (mathematically if not in reality) as simpletons really does nothing for your credibility.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 1:39 pm

My argument again.

In 2016 the GBP to Euro rate was 1.4
It’s now today. 1.10

So in 2016 something that was £1,000 would cost you 1,400 Euros to buy.
Something that was 1,000 Euros would cost £ 714

Today. That something that is £1,000 will now cost you 1,100 Euro. To buy the 1,000 Euro thing will today cost £909

If we have a no deal and that something was now subject to a 10 import duty.

The £1,000 thing will cost you 1,220 Euros with 10% import duty which will still be cheaper to buy the £1,000 thing than in 2016.

The 1,000 Euro thing will now cost £909+90.90=£ 999.90
A lot more than in 2016.

Now if the world doesn’t end and the market picks up and the GBP rises to just 1.2 against the Euro.

Then the exported good at £1,000 would be ,1200+120 Euros. Still cheaper than in 2016.

The imported goods at 1,000 Euro would be £833 +
£33 = £866. Which reduced the effect of the 10% import duty by £133 on today’s price and doesn’t make it much more expensive than in 2016.

If the GBP rate shoots up the effect is reduced greater.

If on the other hand it falls further it increases the cost of imports and makes our exports even more cheaper.

That should prompt us to import less and make more.

Ok. I know I’ve simplified things and the thing that costs £1000 might cost a lot more to make if it’s made of imported stuff.

As a nett importer we might have a short while of hardship while our imports from the EU costs more, but that’s only until we find somewhere cheaper to import from.

The whole notion that we won’t be able to import or export goods, or that the EU won’t let U.K. aircraft fly or won’t recognise U.K. driving licences or passports - which all currently EU versions is quite frankly ludicrous.

The U.K. HAS HIGHER Health And Safety, Food Safety, Animal Welfare and even Environmental Standards tHan most of the EU. Just look at their takeaway shops, restaurant kitchens, building sites and farms for proof next time you visit any EU country ( except maybe Ireland because they stick to U.K. standards ).
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 29 Aug 2018, 2:19 pm

You put a lot of faith into the possibility that the UK import duty will remain at 10%.....and unless I've missed it, you also overlook the fact that there's VAT to be added on to that.

The majority of so-called manufacturing in the UK isn't, it's essentially assembling products using components imported from outside the UK -- no different to the rest of the EU, but then nobody else is leaving at the moment.

As for UK standards, whilst the claim could be made that they're 'higher', it's also the case that the UK regulators went overboard with their interpretation of the EU requirements, particularly with regards needless paperwork & 'box-ticking', which has had a negative impact with regards costs & viability for many businesses.
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