Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Sun 11 Aug 2019, 3:49 pm

Because never has the term 'Little Englanders' been more appropriate.
They're probably the same small-minded bigots who use 'England' when they're referring to Great Britain.

And on a different note, I see PMBJ has managed to find another £2.6bn on one of his magic money trees, this time to build more prisons.
Strange that it always seems to be £2.6bn, unless - of course - it's the same £2.6bn he's already promised to policing, hospitals, negating a 'no-deal Brexit', etc. :whistle:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby CJS on Sun 11 Aug 2019, 8:09 pm

Brevet Cable wrote:Because never has the term 'Little Englanders' been more appropriate.
They're probably the same small-minded bigots who use 'England' when they're referring to Great Britain.

And on a different note, I see PMBJ has managed to find another £2.6bn on one of his magic money trees, this time to build more prisons.
Strange that it always seems to be £2.6bn, unless - of course - it's the same £2.6bn he's already promised to policing, hospitals, negating a 'no-deal Brexit', etc. :whistle:


Has he written it on the side of a bus yet? Cos unless he has, I'm not believing a word of it... :king:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Zoom on Tue 13 Aug 2019, 9:44 pm

rockfordstone wrote:
Brevet Cable wrote:
the brexiters won't be wrong. if it goes tits up it will be the EU's fault, then remainers fault for not believing enough and trying to disrupt the process, then probably the WTO's fault for being undemocratic. I'm even of the opinion that BoJo will push for a GE and throw it so that whoever takes in can be blamed for the failure.

it will only dawn on them when they are jobless, and on the streets campaigning against the government, at which point the government turns round and says "you asked for this. you knew what you were voting for"


Depends.

When it comes to PMBJ, the politest description I've heard from people I know who voted Leave is that he's a "bloody imbecile" & none of them have any faith or trust in anything he says ( and that comes from those who are ardent Conservative voters too )

When it's pointed out that they voted for it, their comments are along the lines of "I didn't vote for this bloody shambles" & whilst some of them have come out with 'why don't we just leave', now it's coming to the point where we're looking increasingly likely to leave with no-deal they're all saying "we didn't vote for that".

No doubt there are Leave voters out there who do want to leave with no deal ( even if some don't understand the implications ) but I suspect many don't.

if social media or radio is a reflection of some of the leave voters around, a lot of them believe that they did vote for no deal and that losing their jobs and being poorer is acceptable if it means being free from the anti democratic EU.

as it happens. most brexit voters i know have either converted and now want to remain or doubled down and want out no matter what it costs.


judging from a few leavers I've seen interviewed on the telly I think many are not particularly concerned about the economy as long as we can stop all those illegal immigrants coming in :wall:

I do a Google news search for Brexit most days and it's amazing how many "news" articles are in the top 10 that turn out to be the utter BS spouted by the Express, just wondering is it like Google search whereby the more you pay the higher up the list you go?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Thu 15 Aug 2019, 11:38 am

Cherry-picking this due to the following news article:

ExVulcanGC wrote:9. The farmers should gain once free of the Common Agricultural Policy which is for the benefit of the French farmers at the detriment of our own.




More than half of farms will go bust if Boris Johnson forces through a no-deal Brexit, farmers are warning, as some join the campaign for a fresh referendum.
A deadly cocktail of immediate tariffs, border checks, increased red tape and cheaper food imports from outside the EU will result in the "decimation of UK farming", a detailed study finds.

"Many industries will suffer, but the industry that would suffer the most serious economic shock will be agriculture," a former chief economist of the National Farmers Union (NFU) concludes.

...

On a recent visit to Wales, Mr Johnson failed to explain what help would be given to farmers - even when warned that crashing out of the EU could spark civil unrest.

Instead, he said only: "We have interventions that are aimed to support them and their incomes."


Personally, I take the word of the National Farmer’s Union over someone on a forum, or a political pundit blowhard, or some propagandist Facebook memes.

The chief economist of the actual institutional body set up to represent farmers are saying it will be bad. Does this change your mind? Will you now redact point 9. from your list?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Thu 15 Aug 2019, 12:35 pm

And on the subject of farming....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49353220
The UK must accept US food standards as part of any future trade deal with Washington, the head of America's farming lobby has said.

Zippy Duvall, head of the American Farm Bureau, said US farmers were keen to trade with their British "friends".
But he said fears over practices such as washing chicken in chlorine and using genetically modified (GM) crops were not "science-based".
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby rockfordstone on Thu 15 Aug 2019, 12:51 pm

Tommy wrote:Cherry-picking this due to the following news article:

ExVulcanGC wrote:9. The farmers should gain once free of the Common Agricultural Policy which is for the benefit of the French farmers at the detriment of our own.




More than half of farms will go bust if Boris Johnson forces through a no-deal Brexit, farmers are warning, as some join the campaign for a fresh referendum.
A deadly cocktail of immediate tariffs, border checks, increased red tape and cheaper food imports from outside the EU will result in the "decimation of UK farming", a detailed study finds.

"Many industries will suffer, but the industry that would suffer the most serious economic shock will be agriculture," a former chief economist of the National Farmers Union (NFU) concludes.

...

On a recent visit to Wales, Mr Johnson failed to explain what help would be given to farmers - even when warned that crashing out of the EU could spark civil unrest.

Instead, he said only: "We have interventions that are aimed to support them and their incomes."


Personally, I take the word of the National Farmer’s Union over someone on a forum, or a political pundit blowhard, or some propagandist Facebook memes.

The chief economist of the actual institutional body set up to represent farmers are saying it will be bad. Does this change your mind? Will you now redact point 9. from your list?

they had one of the guys leading this on radio 4 earlier with one of the brexit party MEPs
after explaining his point, the brexit chap rolled out lines about "GATT 24", "who will put tariffs on, not us", "great entrepreneurs in farming will get round this etc"

bring on expert, put him against someone just spouting the same crap that has been disproven over and over and over again. for balance obviously.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby speedbird2639 on Thu 15 Aug 2019, 5:26 pm

and cheaper food imports from outside the EU will result in the "decimation of UK farming", a detailed study finds.


Gives you a good idea of how much they have been overcharging us for the 40 years in the artificial market of the EEC/ EU then doesn't it.

Britain has been importing food from countries which could supply it more cheaply since at least the middle of the 19th century, if not even earlier. Farmers will need to either find a way of being competitive against the cheaper imports or they will go the way of high street shops in the face of online shopping. Personally I don't agree that you should use tax payers money to support an industry if it is failing - let it fail.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Zoom on Thu 15 Aug 2019, 9:43 pm

speedbird2639 wrote:
and cheaper food imports from outside the EU will result in the "decimation of UK farming", a detailed study finds.


Gives you a good idea of how much they have been overcharging us for the 40 years in the artificial market of the EEC/ EU then doesn't it.

Britain has been importing food from countries which could supply it more cheaply since at least the middle of the 19th century, if not even earlier. Farmers will need to either find a way of being competitive against the cheaper imports or they will go the way of high street shops in the face of online shopping. Personally I don't agree that you should use tax payers money to support an industry if it is failing - let it fail.


I don't have the full facts but let's take the highly successful Welsh lamb industry which is due to be hit with a 40% tarriff if it continues its exports to the EU, are you saying that it's being subsidised by the EU (and ultimately the UK through our EU contributions) to keep going and actually the farmers should lose this subsidy and go and find another source of income from their farms that doesn't rely on lamb exports to the EU? (although they have been promised a bailout after Brexit so we'll possibly be paying them to keep going anyway even though there is no capacity in the UK for their lamb)

I take your point about Britain importing food from countries which could supply it more cheaply since at least the middle of the 19th century, it's what we did through the Empire until U boats effectively cut off that supply during WW2 which is when we started domestic farming on a large scale again.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby rockfordstone on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 8:51 am

speedbird2639 wrote:
Farmers will need to either find a way of being competitive against the cheaper imports or they will go the way of high street shops in the face of online shopping. Personally I don't agree that you should use tax payers money to support an industry if it is failing - let it fail.

you can do it cheaper, what it means is lowering standards. washing chicken in chlorine for example or pumping beef full of steroids and antibiotics.

personally i wouldn't want to live in a country where industry drops to the lowest common denominator. i'd be in favour of supporting industries because i also don't want to be on an island which doesn't provide for itself. as mentioned before, we were cut off in both world wars.

brexit was all about taking back control not lowering standards and relying on other nations.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby MiG_Eater on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 9:23 am

rockfordstone wrote:
speedbird2639 wrote:
Farmers will need to either find a way of being competitive against the cheaper imports or they will go the way of high street shops in the face of online shopping. Personally I don't agree that you should use tax payers money to support an industry if it is failing - let it fail.

you can do it cheaper, what it means is lowering standards. washing chicken in chlorine for example or pumping beef full of steroids and antibiotics.

personally i wouldn't want to live in a country where industry drops to the lowest common denominator. i'd be in favour of supporting industries because i also don't want to be on an island which doesn't provide for itself. as mentioned before, we were cut off in both world wars.

brexit was all about taking back control not lowering standards and relying on other nations.


Ironically, not wanting to drop to the 'lowest common denominator' in industrial terms is one of the main reasons I support leaving the EU.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 11:32 am

speedbird2639 wrote: Personally I don't agree that you should use tax payers money to support an industry if it is failing - let it fail.


Presumably, then, the £4.2 billion for no deal Brexit preparations shouldn’t be used, and we should let failing Brexit fail and just revoke Article 50? :dunno:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby starbuck on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 1:48 pm

Tommy wrote:
speedbird2639 wrote: Personally I don't agree that you should use tax payers money to support an industry if it is failing - let it fail.


Presumably, then, the £4.2 billion for no deal Brexit preparations shouldn’t be used, and we should let failing Brexit fail and just revoke Article 50? :dunno:


Or maybe stop sending £9 billion a year to the EU?

Is there a merry-go-round emoji? Would seem quite apt for the vast majority of posts in this thread :grin:

Going back to the point about Welsh lamb - just under 30% of UK lamb is exported to the EU. There is a very strong case to be made that the traditional hill side farming you associate with the lamb and sheep farming is not sustainable regardless of EU membership or not and that the land owners need to start preparing for the use of their land in other ways such as tourism. This has been the case in large parts of New Zealand for a while now, which if i remember rightly (and i'm happy to be corrected as farming isn't really my thing), came about as a result of the UK reducing the quantity of Lamb it imported from New Zealand because of our membership of the EU.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby speedbird2639 on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 4:35 pm

You are absolutely correct. I'm remember my dear old Mom bemoaning the fact that membership of the EEC/ EU had effectively blocked the import of New Zealand lamb which was both excellent and competitively priced, forcing shopper who wanted lamb to buy to pay increased prices to select from a reduced range.

In an era when there is concern about food supply the EU came up with the genius idea of making everyone who sold seeds register each type of seeds they sold. Due to the process being punitively expensive sellers only registered the very best sellers meaning 90% of vegetable types which had been grown for generations without any issue were lost. When you look at what is happening with the banana crop for instance how does reducing the diversity of seeds types used to grow vegetable crops seem like a good idea?

I've read articles which say Angela Merkel is now scrambling to get a deal done with Boris as she has realised if the UK leaves without a deal Germany will be plunged into recession (some might argue they are there already and it is only chicanery with the figures that is allowing them to report growth).

The company I work for sent round an email before March 31 saying they had made all the necessary adjustments they required for Brexit so I say bring it on, the sooner the better.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 4:45 pm

starbuck wrote:
Tommy wrote:
speedbird2639 wrote: Personally I don't agree that you should use tax payers money to support an industry if it is failing - let it fail.


Presumably, then, the £4.2 billion for no deal Brexit preparations shouldn’t be used, and we should let failing Brexit fail and just revoke Article 50? :dunno:


Or maybe stop sending £9 billion a year to the EU?


My bad. I keep forgetting Brexiteers consider the EU to be failing without producing any evidence for it, and are quite happy to sever everything we *do* get from the EU and pay an extra 50% for the privilege.

*£9 billion last year. It has been both higher and lower in previous years.

Moving the merry-go-round on, then:



There’s this weird Brexiteer bravado that (again with the idiotic poker analogies) that if we were to threaten no deal, the EU would fold.

What happens if they call our bluff?

And if Boris accepts that the EU calls our bluff, and we do have a “no deal” why is he treating October 31st as the deadline? That’s just when Article 50 expires. A date set by the EU. The EU literally controlled our departure date.

He can declare “no deal” any time he wants. Why not just do it now if he’s as emphatic as his promises sound?

If we’re going full on rah-Britannia, why do we need our departure to be when the EU tells us? Why doesn’t he just leave? And why aren’t Brexiteers angry about this?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby CJS on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 5:21 pm

That, Tommy, is a very good point.

I'd imagine it's because no deal is the last thing he actually wants, due to it likely (or at least quite possibly) ending his premiership.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ExVulcanGC on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 5:54 pm

https://www.brusselstimes.com/opinion/53664/is-europe-headed-for-another-recession/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/07/german-trade-decline-raises-fears-over-global-economy

If the EU are not prepared to extend and will reluctantly accept a ‘no deal’ exit then maybe that will actually end the uncertainty so both sides can get back to their day jobs of looking after and sorting out their respective economies.

Additionally ‘no deal’ implies that all trade will cease which we know it will not as the default leave just means trading as we do now but under WTO rules, which may, or may not, cause businesses on both sides of the channel issues, but that is not yet known and is only currently speculated that it will.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/what-to-expect-for-the-global-economy-in-2019/

https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics-policy/insights/uk-economic-outlook.html

All the above are just opinions, speculation, and predictions from those considered to be knowledgeable in this area. Probably not as accurate as some would appreciate across the media outlets.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby LN Strike Eagle on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 6:38 pm

ExVulcanGC wrote:...the default leave just means trading as we do now but under WTO rules...

:dizzy:

How many times must this be explained? Trading "as we do now" and "under WTO" are two entirely different things. It will not be "as we do now", it will completely different - borders will go up, goods will be delayed/checked at said borders and tariffs will apply.

If you mean that companies will continue to trade with their customers, but with the addition of delays and tariffs, why on earth do you assume that will happen? Imagine you had Tesco and Asda next door to each other. You'd always shopped at Tesco, and had no reason to look at Asda because you were always happy with what you got from Tesco. Suddenly, Tesco's suppliers/trading arrangements/business model changed overnight and for you to continue to buy your weekly shop from Tesco, you'd have to pay an additional 40% compared to yesterday. Next door at Asda, the prices remain the same as they always were - you can go next door and buy your apples and oranges at the same/similar price as you used to pay at Tesco. Are you going to continue to buy your shop at Tesco, or change to shopping at Asda?

That is exactly what will happen to UK exporters. Why would a customer in Germany continue to buy something from the UK, with whom they no longer have free access and trading arrangements? They'll just move and source their supply of goods from someone with whom trade will be easy - be that another EU country or someone the EU has a trade deal with. How much do we actually make in this country that cannot be sourced anywhere else in the world?

Even if we cut imports down to the bare essentials, we will be forced into paying higher prices for those goods because the tariffs will be added. Our customers are under no obligation to continue to buy from us, so at the same time as you destroy UK exports (and therefore most likely cause companies financial difficulties as they struggle to replace lost custom), the imports will also cost more.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby starbuck on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 6:53 pm

I’m not in the “let’s just go to WTO, it’ll be fine” camp but at the same time I don’t think the supermarket analogy really works. Or at least it only works if you assume that the Asda apples and oranges are of the exact same quality and flavour that you were buying from Tesco’s. And if they are it does beg the question why weren’t you shopping at Asda in the first place? Even being within the Eu and tariff free we don’t tend to be the cheapest due to our geography and higher wages, taxes etc.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ExVulcanGC on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 7:02 pm

If you mean that companies will continue to trade with their customers, but with the addition of delays and tariffs, why on earth do you assume that will happen?

That is exactly what was meant, and I don't assume that will happen, anymore than you do, though I thought I had clarified that with the addition of the text below:
which may, or may not, cause businesses on both sides of the channel issues, but that is not yet known and is only currently speculated that it will.

Why do you assume that it will not happen?
https://fullfact.org/economy/post-brexit-trade-tariffs/
ExVulcanGC

Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby LN Strike Eagle on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 7:27 pm

It was too simplistic, you're right - it wouldn't just be a price rise, but it would take longer too as your trolley load would need to be inspected when you tried to leave with the goods... :lol:

Joking aside, I'm running out of ways in which to try and relay the information in simple enough terms for some people to digest. This nonsense that WTO is somehow a preferable position to our current standing is utter garbage and the sooner people wake up to what is about to happen, the better. Likewise the notion that we leave and everything carries on as we know it - it won't. If you tear up 759 international treaties overnight, things are gonna change.

starbuck wrote:And if they are it does beg the question why weren’t you shopping at Asda in the first place?

How does it? There are lots of shops selling the same/similar items at the same/similar price right now - do you base your shopping preferences today on clairvoyance of tomorrow's prices? :dunno:

You have consumer choice right now, just as our export customers do. If we suddenly erect barriers to trade (delays/tariffs), why would they continue to buy from us rather than seek out a cheaper and easier alternative? It's not just money - it's time and ease too.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby LN Strike Eagle on Fri 16 Aug 2019, 7:39 pm

ExVulcanGC wrote:
which may, or may not, cause businesses on both sides of the channel issues, but that is not yet known and is only currently speculated that it will.

Why do you assume that it will not happen?
https://fullfact.org/economy/post-brexit-trade-tariffs/

What's speculation about tariffs? Everyone else has their schedule of tariffs at the WTO - you can probably go and look up what those tariffs will be if you are so inclined. Any country/body that doesn't have trading arrangements with us (which would include the EU under a no deal Brexit) will be forced to apply their WTO tariffs on our exports. They don't have a choice not to - we will be a "third country" to them, and they cannot give us more favourable terms than anyone else (it's called "most favoured nation" rules). If they lower tariffs for us, they must lower them for everyone else at the WTO with whom they do not have a trade deal. That's why your full-fact article says they can chose their tariffs - because they can, provided they roll out the same terms to everyone else. That won't happen for us, or it would already have happened for someone else before us.

Would you keep blindly buying a product from a supplier that hiked their prices up overnight, or look elsewhere for a better deal?

Dealing with setting our own tariffs, that's true, but if you put them all at zero, why would anybody want to do a trade deal? They already have free access to our markets without having to lift a finger. The idea of a trade deal is to mutually negotiate access to each other's castles by lowering the curtain walls - if you build your castle without any walls around it, everyone already has access to everything and there's no incentive to sit around a table and do deals when you're giving it all away!

This is why other countries won't give us free access and tariffs will apply - they already have their schedule of tariffs at the WTO, so whilst they could in theory lower them for us, they have to lower them for everyone else at the same time which they're obviously not going to do. Nor would we be, if people weren't so easily led, keen to vote for things they don't understand and willing to elect liars and charlatans to positions of power. It's suicide.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Zoom on Sat 17 Aug 2019, 8:11 am

starbuck wrote:
Tommy wrote:
speedbird2639 wrote:
Going back to the point about Welsh lamb - just under 30% of UK lamb is exported to the EU. There is a very strong case to be made that the traditional hill side farming you associate with the lamb and sheep farming is not sustainable regardless of EU membership or not and that the land owners need to start preparing for the use of their land in other ways such as tourism. This has been the case in large parts of New Zealand for a while now, which if i remember rightly (and i'm happy to be corrected as farming isn't really my thing), came about as a result of the UK reducing the quantity of Lamb it imported from New Zealand because of our membership of the EU.


Yes I think you are right about NZ lamb most of it dried up when we joined the EU.

In terms of alternatives to farming you can't really compare Wales to NZ. People go to NZ from all over the world. That's not the case for much of Wales, and areas like Mid Wales are probably at capacity for the number of tourists that visit there. And like me they visit for the beautiful rural unspoilt area that it is (with the exception of livestock and drystone walls / fences to keep sheep in and unwelcome visitors and vehicles out, but aren't sheep actually part of the Welsh landscape?)

Take away sheep and you take away management of thousands of acres of land which is not going to return to heathland like Scotland. Short of charging people to walk and cycle (or possibly even drive like they do in the North American National Parks) on the public rights of way or building theme parks or more holiday accommodation in an area that cannot cope with the extra road traffic I'm not sure how all those farmers are going to replace their (albeit subsidised) livelihoods.

And also this is not going to be a gradual transition between hill farming and alternatives, it's going to be an overnight cessation of much of their trade by a minority of politicians who have either no concept of or regard for the repercussions (and also tell us that it's actually not going to happen because the EU will cave in at the last minute)
Last edited by Zoom on Sat 17 Aug 2019, 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Tommy on Sat 17 Aug 2019, 8:47 am

Bump, from 18/07/18 - probably a little dated now, but facts the facts.

Tommy wrote:TL;DR - we can't simply "fall back onto WTO rules", and no deal is certainly worse than a bad deal.

Huge post that no-one will ever read:

This isn't directly in response to the ericbee123's post, but as it's been mentioned; one of the most depressing things about Brexit is the complete lack of understanding of what "WTO Rules" mean. It's not the fault of those who support leave. Who in their right mind has the time or inclination to get into this stuff if they don't have to? But it's a failure of the news organisations and our leaders to properly explain to us what they are.

Once again, this isn't me launching an argument or an opinion against Brexit, it is just a fact. One the Brexiteers will have to face at some point if we leave the EU in a "no deal" scenario. Our leaders should have given us the information a long time ago, rather than some more nonsense "no deal is better than a bad deal" which means the sum total of bugger all.

By the way, we're all in it for the ride now. Legally speaking, there is very little that can be done to revoke the triggering of Article 50. The clock is ticking, for better or worse. I personally don't think there ever was, but regardless, there is certainly no "project fear" anymore. The run-down has commenced, and there are very very few legal mechanisms to stop it.

Brexiteers have long hailed the prospect of "no deal" not being a problem, because we can "fall back onto WTO rules". It seems very few people actually look at what WTO rules mean. The first point, is that WTO is not an escape from the EU if our attempted deal with them goes awry. Successful membership of the WTO is directly related to how successful we are in our negotiation with the EU.

I'm paraphrasing a concise summary. The reality is even more complicated.

The WTO has a terrible (but fair) rule called "most favoured nation". It's the opposite of what it says. It means as a nation you cannot discriminate your tariffs (you have to get a trade deal to do that). A good example would be that if we wanted to drop our tariffs on beef to zero with the EU, we would have to drop it with everyone else. We could, theoretically, drop our tariffs with the EU to zero, but we would become a tariff free nation. Cheap knock-offs would flood the market, hundreds of thousands would lose their jobs, and most importantly, we become the least attractive nation to ever trade with. We would have no way of negotiating trade deals. We already have our tariffs at zero, and so we'd be trying to haggle a deal on something we already give away for free.

Likewise, the EU cannot ignore the "most favoured nation" rule, either. It has to apply the same tariffs upon us as it does the rest of the world. That's not Junker being a revengeful little twerp, it's simply a legal mechanism. If they didn't the entire trading bloc will be inundated with successful WTO disputes from other nations. Without a deal, we would get the same tariffs applied to us as, say, Uzbekistan. Given that the UK and the EU have had decades and decades of close cooperation, and businesses built upon the principle that things are easier in the EU than they are with the rest of the world, a vast number of businesses will be subjected to tariffs that would be no different than the rest of the world.

That's the easy part. That's just the basic rule of how the WTO works and how that would apply to Britain. The hard part follows.

Each member of the 163(? -IIRC) member WTO has two of what are known as "schedules". One for services, one for goods. These are vast impenetrable documents that set out exactly how you as a nation, or a trading body, act economically with the rest of the world. They're like that Apple user agreement you ignore but agree to, but on steroids. They set out everything, right down to the tariff price of beef, or how much of your financial system foreign banks are allowed to become involved with.

No-one really knows the situation, but it's likely that Britain has a pair of schedules, as opposed to doesn't, which is good. What Britain needs to do is extract its pair of Schedules, and present them to the WTO as their own documents, rather than (as they always have been, and as they were originally drafted) under the umbrella of the EU. However, the WTO was set up in 1995. The UK's schedules were originally drafted, and have always been, inextricably linked with those of other EU member states, and the EU as an entity itself. We have to pick through these painstakingly working out what applies to us, and what applies to the EU and other EU member states. This will take years. Imagine everything we do with the EU, and everything the EU does with the rest of the world involving us. We will have to split more hairs than there are on the heads of all of the lawyers in the negotiating room. And we only have 9 months left to do it.

Furthermore, the WTO has zero rules for how a country can extract its schedules from an existing trading union. There has never been any need. No nation has been stupid enough to try it. It's uncharted water. Legally and regulatory-speaking, that means that it will take time. So much time. So much backwards and forwards-ing. This isn't a simple, streamlined process.

And all the while, any one of the 163 member states can raise a protest against Britain if it thinks things are unfair. This includes both EU states, and the EU itself. If we come out of EU trade deal discussions with a bitter taste in the mouth and no deal, and we try to extract our schedules deciding on a percentage tariff rate to Australia, but Germany is unhappy with that percentage because it manufactures most of the parts for those electronic goods, and we only do final assembly, Germany can lodge a protest. And the way the WTO works is that protests beget protests. A sudden compromise with Germany may then annoy Australians, or even another nation where the raw materials come from, so *they* lodge a protest, and on and on and on.

This leaves the UK vulnerable. The entire WTO membership has to be happy with our schedules. Any one of 163 trading entities, each with their own agendas, may trigger a dispute. No matter how spurious. And don't be under any doubt that these member states, with their established WTO membership and trade deals in place, will squeeze the UK's vulnerability. It's how trade works. It is predatory. Each nation is prowling around looking out for their own interests. If there's a crack they can stick a screwdriver into and open up, you can be guaranteed that is exactly what they will do. It's not a back-slapping affair the news portrays it. It's razor-sharp negotiation. All that "history of friendship" and "special relationship" guff falls by the wayside and is left outside of the door. Especially so given a man like Trump who is obsessed with deals exists in the White House. To assume an easy ride would be a grave mistake.

"So how did all the WTO member states manage it, then?" Good question. They sorted out their schedules a long, long, long time before joining. So that when they presented them, they knew that the schedules would be accepted, or had done as much as possible to reduce the risk of protest. And they drafted them (mostly) from scratch. As said, no-one has ever extracted schedules from a trading bloc like the EU and then re-presented them to the WTO. We don't have a clean slate.

And that's not even talking about the myriad of other issues. Spain could lodge a pretty dastardly dispute against us for fishing rights. Hell, that could open up other diplomatic problems. They lodge a crippling protest against us in the WTO arena, and only agree to our terms if we agree to give them Gibraltar. Or Argentina, with their beef and wine, could put a strangle-hold on the UK's trade, in return for concessions on The Falklands?

So, ok, we're going into the realms of the hypothetical, but not outlandishly so. The moment we triggered Article 50 Spain started posturing about Gibraltar (and then some stupid Tory MP mentioned war). So this is not project fear anymore. Article 50 clock is ticking. There's very little we can do to revoke it. It is happening. I have nothing to gain from inciting fear into people. These are just hard facts, and dangers associated with these facts.

We won't be the only ones. The EU will also be doing the same thing, and it'll be just as difficult for them. It needs the WTO to approve its schedules once we have extracted ours. From a very simple numbers point of view, Britain wont even be at the front of the queue. The EU is much, much larger, and were the ones to present schedules to the WTO in the '90s anyway, and are therefore more likely to be ahead in the queue than little old us.

IF we left with failed trade deal negotiations, the EU could at the very same time also be a hostile actor towards us in the WTO schedules presentation. True, we could also be a hostile actor to them, but again, the numbers speak for themselves. There are simply more of them. There is more money, and there are more goods and services traded.

So, the only way to survive this would be to extract our schedules, and change precisely dick. We can't. The EU has a 10% tariff rate on cars, so we will have it. The slightest tinkering will likely set off an immensely volatile dispute/protest process. The only way for Britain to just survive, not even prosper, just survive, is to keep everything exactly the same as it was under the EU. Which tanks the entire point of Brexit. But even worse, it means Britain will still be a slave to a trading bloc of countries to which it no longer belongs.

Once the UK starts tinkering with the EU tariffs and quotas and existing deals, it tips dominoes that start falling everywhere.

This summary, and it is just that, barely scratches the surface. And that's even before tariff-rate quotas, but I think I've punished whomever is still reading this enough for one day.

This is the point of Brexit. It's complex. It's boring. It's a legal and regulatory nightmare. Simply waving your little Union Flag and saying "they need us more than we need them!" shows a complete, lack of understanding of the whole process.

This is understandable. As I started this post, who in their right mind even cares about this sort of boring guff if they don't have to? Well, given the pointless patriotism like Farage, boris, JRM, Gove, IDS and the rest farted into the wind, and the BBC lapped up because people loved it, we now all have to. They've forced us to have to research and care and know about this stuff now.

I've always said it; always, always, always, beware men and women with simple solutions to very complex problems. We can't just "fall back" onto WTO rules. And no amount of "you lost, get over it!" rhetoric will change that.

The government is not yet even preparing for this. They are working towards trying to secure some deal from the EU so we don't have to use the WTO as a safety net. Preparation for this sort of stuff, for trading entities as economically massive and influential as ours and the EU, takes years. We haven't even started it yet, and we've only got nine months on the unstoppable clock. And Boris and David Davies now see it as a good time to play politics.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby vandal on Sun 18 Aug 2019, 9:08 am

Makes for some worrying reading, but it's just Project Fear, right? :wall: :dunno:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/n ... spartanntp
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Sun 18 Aug 2019, 6:21 pm

[quote but it's just Project Fear, right?][/quote]
Of course it is......because PMBJ has made it quite clear that the EU has got to give us a new deal.

Funnily enough, the EU would beg to differ on that.
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