Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby CJS on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 6:51 am

Tommy, the question was (meant to be) should there be another referendum, rather than how we would vote if there was one.

As you quite rightly point out of course, they're stupid anyway!

I totally appreciate that the British public voted democratically to leave, but I seriously wonder how many of those who did would vote the same now, given some actual facts rather than the fluff that the leave side came out with during the campaign which has now turned out to be largely just that.

I also know that the remainers used their fair share of essentially made up hyperbole, but then we were never going to be in the position of having to wade through months of negotiations and compromises of the result had been to stay, were we?!

Obviously, as Andy says, the choice was only ever to leave or stay, perhaps that was always going to be the issue, it was too - it seemed too - simple. Had we been furnished with a timescale or even the most sketchy of (actually true) detail, the result may (may) have been different. Clearly this wouldn't have been possible, but perhaps that's an indication that we weren't quite as ready for it as Fromage and his cronies (Cameron et Al) wanted us to think we were.

I'd be interested to know what she of our slightly (cough) more experienced members remember of the original vote in the 1970s when we first joined? Were there the same kind of scare stories based on not a lot? What was the general feel after the vote and how smoothly did the transition in to the (now) EU go?
Maybe I'm wrong, but the feeling I get is that very few politicians are happy enough with the current deal to approve it (if it even gets passed by the EU anyway). So if no deal can be agreed on, it surely can't be right to just leave anyway.

Compulsory voting gets by my, um, vote. At least it removes the apathy and no-one can really complain about the result.

One other thing, if Scotland will apparently be able to hold its own vote to rejoin post Brexit (is that even possible) then why not England / Wales / NI too?
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 7:56 am

As Andy ( boff180 ) posted, and as has been posted several times in the other thread, the Referendum was a simple binary option :

Image

You didn't get the option of 'hard', 'soft' 'Norway+', 'Canada++' or any of the others being bandied around.....the result was to leave, but how we left was to be determined by those in government.

Should we have another referendum?
That would depend on the question.
Despite voting Remain, I don't think we should have one if the options would be the same as the original.
I do, however, think there would be a case for another one if Parliament louse things up so badly that it would result in a 'No-deal Brexit'.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Tommy on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 8:09 am

starbuck wrote:From those in favour of a second referendum I would genuinely like to know how they think it would actually work?

How would it be any different to how it was 2 years ago? Does everyone think that all the 'project fear' doom mongers and all the 'lie pedalling' leavers are just going to disappear into the wilderness?

It will be just the same as before, a 'one size fits all' question that means different things to different people all over the country.


Well, vote leave have been found to have broken the law, the bus was a lie, we've embarrassed ourselves to the world, Aaron Banks is under criminal investigations, the Daily Mail is now lukewarm on Theresa "crush the saboteurs" May, and most of the key figureheads of Brexit have been chewed up and spat out.

One can't really see Boris or Michael or David banging the "not the Brexit we wanted" drum seriously for the same reason no-one takes them seriously now. They spent three quarters of the two year period marshaling this. Nigel Farage? Once meeting Donald Trump in that gaudy gold-plated elevator, now resigned to his little safe-space radio show and trotted onto Question Time by the BBC because they still think he is good telly.

Really, who is left out there is left of the original "leave" crew to champion a new referendum that hasn't soiled their campaigning name by running off the moment the vote came through, or have since soiled their names by smugly spouting nonsense like (paraphrased) "there is no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside"?

I still don't know how I feel about a second referendum, but plenty enough has changed in two and a half short years.

And if Brexit from the Tories was still mandated, then why did Theresa May lose her majority in 2017? Very little impact from Brexit had actually happened then, and she still managed to reduce her majority, when no-one expected her to. She thought she was riding a wave of pro-brexit sentiment and got bitten on the arse.

I think the public are tired of the whole sodding and saga.

I have had a few periodic looks, but I still can't see a single material benefit Brexit has yielded yet.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Tommy on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 8:17 am

On a separate note, I can actually see her backing a second referendum. If she can't get this deal through the Commons (the irony of Brexiteers relying on this, when this time two years ago they were calling judges "Enemies of the People" for considering the very same principle), then I think it is her last option.

Either the vote is to remain, in which case she can ride that and try and prevent Brexit (I still don't know how legally to stop it other than all the other EU states agreeing, but how likely is this now that the EU is to get a pretty sweet deal with little from us in return? It's probably feasible, still, but a consideration nonetheless), or if it is to proceed with Brexit, she then can use that as a mandate. Either for her deal or for a no-deal (though the latter might finish her).

If her deal doesn't make it through the Commons, I think a second referendum is one of the last tools she has at her disposal to use and keep herself in power.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby starbuck on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 8:35 am

Tommy wrote:
starbuck wrote:From those in favour of a second referendum I would genuinely like to know how they think it would actually work?

How would it be any different to how it was 2 years ago? Does everyone think that all the 'project fear' doom mongers and all the 'lie pedalling' leavers are just going to disappear into the wilderness?

It will be just the same as before, a 'one size fits all' question that means different things to different people all over the country.


Well, vote leave have been found to have broken the law, the bus was a lie, we've embarrassed ourselves to the world, Aaron Banks is under criminal investigations, the Daily Mail is now lukewarm on Theresa "crush the saboteurs" May, and most of the key figureheads of Brexit have been chewed up and spat out.

One can't really see Boris or Michael or David banging the "not the Brexit we wanted" drum seriously for the same reason no-one takes them seriously now. They spent three quarters of the two year period marshaling this. Nigel Farage? Once meeting Donald Trump in that gaudy gold-plated elevator, now resigned to his little safe-space radio show and trotted onto Question Time by the BBC because they still think he is good telly.

Really, who is left out there is left of the original "leave" crew to champion a new referendum that hasn't soiled their campaigning name by running off the moment the vote came through, or have since soiled their names by smugly spouting nonsense like (paraphrased) "there is no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside"?

I still don't know how I feel about a second referendum, but plenty enough has changed in two and a half short years.

And if Brexit from the Tories was still mandated, then why did Theresa May lose her majority in 2017? Very little impact from Brexit had actually happened then, and she still managed to reduce her majority, when no-one expected her to. She thought she was riding a wave of pro-brexit sentiment and got bitten on the arse.

I think the public are tired of the whole sodding and saga.

I have had a few periodic looks, but I still can't see a single material benefit Brexit has yielded yet.


Theresa May lost her majority because she was a terrible campaigner who thought she saw an opportunity to see off labour for the next 5 years, it had nothing to do with Brexit sentiment. That would only work if Labour were standing on an anti brexit mandate during the election which they weren't. There are no material benefits to Brexit yet because there is no Brexit yet, if there are to be any benefits they cannot been seen until we actually leave.

As for the bus being a lie, wasn't Theresa May quoted last week as saying that the money going into the NHS once we have left will be closer to £390million every week rather than the £350 million on the bus?

I agree it's a total mess but I'm still not sure how a second referendum would solve anything, the result will still be too close giving whoever loses enough of a voice to want to go again. Yes the leaders who campaigned for leave have disappeared but so have many who campaigned to stay, Boris is still waiting in the wings but so is dodgy Dave and teflon Tony, they'll all come back given the chance.

And what about those that were remainers but are now leavers such as Theresa and Jeremy? What credibility are they going to have on the stump if we go again?
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 8:35 am

Tommy wrote:Either the vote is to remain, in which case she can ride that and try and prevent Brexit (I still don't know how legally other than all the other EU states agreeing)

The ECJ still haven't decided whether or not Article 50 can be rescinded, have they?
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 8:38 am

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-court-case-article-50-ruling-theresa-may-supreme-justice-referendum-a8652731.html
The UK can move to stop Brexit by attempting to unilaterally revoke Article 50, legal papers published by the government suggest.
The documents indicate that MPs would first need to direct the government to revoke the Article, which started the countdown to Britain’s withdrawal when it was triggered almost two years ago.
Until now the government has refused to discuss its view of the legality of revocation, but the newly released papers suggest it is a lack of political will rather than any legal barrier that is preventing a bid.
(snip)
The government’s lawyers argued that the ECJ should not at this point be tasked to make such a ruling, but in doing so apparently revealed that it would be possible for the UK to attempt to revoke Article 50.

The papers said: “For the issue of revocability of [Article 50] to become live, parliament must first have directed the government, against the government’s settled policy and against the popular answer provided by the referendum, unilaterally to revoke the notice.
“Second, either an EU member state or the EU Parliament must then object to the United Kingdom’s attempt unilaterally to revoke. Third, all attempts at finding a consensus for revocation must fail, so that the effect of revoking the notice becomes a live issue.
“If that stage were reached, any such live issue and dispute would be at the inter-state or EU institutional level. At that time is would fall to be adjudicated by the [ECJ] in a direct action.”



Edited to add.....
Donald Trump hates May's Brexit deal -- that's as good a reason as any I can think of for everybody to support it ! :biggrin:
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Mooshie1956 on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 10:38 am

Tommy wrote:On a separate note, I can actually see her backing a second referendum. If she can't get this deal through the Commons (the irony of Brexiteers relying on this, when this time two years ago they were calling judges "Enemies of the People" for considering the very same principle), then I think it is her last option.

Either the vote is to remain, in which case she can ride that and try and prevent Brexit (I still don't know how legally to stop it other than all the other EU states agreeing, but how likely is this now that the EU is to get a pretty sweet deal with little from us in return? It's probably feasible, still, but a consideration nonetheless), or if it is to proceed with Brexit, she then can use that as a mandate. Either for her deal or for a no-deal (though the latter might finish her).

If her deal doesn't make it through the Commons, I think a second referendum is one of the last tools she has at her disposal to use and keep herself in power.


Just a layman's thought as I don't know how these things work, but have we actually signed an agreement to leave with all the terms and conditions laid out?.
I would have thought that much like any other agreement you only sign when both parties are happy with the T&C's. I know we have put our intention to leave in, but how binding is it ?.
I remember once buying some computer software that didn't display the T&C's on the box but only once opened and attempting to install. I didn't agree to them so went back for a refund, as the software was open they tried to refuse a refund until I pointed out the T&C's say to return for a refund but could only be seen once opened. they then had no choice but to refund. Would that same principle apply here ?.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 12:06 pm

Nobody knows for sure, hence why it's been taken to the ECJ for them to give the definitive answer ( it's all in the other thread )
There was no agreement which needed to be reached, no T&Cs, nothing.....it all hinges on the invoking of Article 50 & whether or not that can be rescinded.
Unless I'm mistaken, our legal beagles copped out on making a decision.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby CJS on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 12:09 pm

Not my intention to create another Brexit thread - this one was really just meant to be about the possibility of a second referendum and whether or not we (UKAR) would opt to hold one if we were the ones making the decisions. I don't think there is any way to add a poll to an existing thread, otherwise I'd have done that!

Don't want the waters to get muddied further, mods please lock if you think it would be best. :up:
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Tommy on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 12:25 pm

Brevet Cable wrote:
Tommy wrote:Either the vote is to remain, in which case she can ride that and try and prevent Brexit (I still don't know how legally other than all the other EU states agreeing)

The ECJ still haven't decided whether or not Article 50 can be rescinded, have they?


No, you're correct that they haven't, I'm jumping the gun a bit, but that's what I think the verdict will be; that it is revocable with the consent of all member states.

Current status:



Edit, I say "I think", it's what a lot of people think. And if it is deemed revocable, then I would expect a surge of support for a people's vote, as then there would be something that could change. It would no-longer be an unstoppable automatic operation of law, but something we could chose. Or at least ask for.

If judgment is handed down before December 11th,
it would have significant implications on the debate in Parliament.

It would go from being a "May's deal or no deal" to "May's deal, no deal, or no Brexit". A quite considerable shift in options.

There is also a high court case going on in a separate A50 matter too.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 12:42 pm

Tommy wrote:If judgement is handed down before December 11th,
it would have significant implications on the debate in Parliament

And if it's delayed until after 29 March ( which some cynics think it will be ) it'll be irrelevant as far as the UK is concerned.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Finningley Boy on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 2:58 pm

DerekF wrote:Or another way of putting it is that the hard won peace in Northern Ireland is being put in jeopardy by those that have put their faith in falsehoods by the the likes of Gove, Johnson, Davies, Farage etc (where are they now btw). From the beginning it was clear that the Irish border would be major sticking point and so it has proved to be. Not Project Fear but Project Truth.

The future safety and security of the world must lie in less nationalism and more in cooperation between groups of nations and we are coming out of one the biggest - genius work Brexiteers. :clown:

What you are actually saying is the IRA are calling the shots. Nobody suggested anything about a hard border, a soft border or a border with soft and hard centres. The entire flap was thrown up by the EU. The British side have betrayed no intention to put in place any border checks over and above what currently exists. Quite frankly, if it has to be so then that's that. Northern Ireland is a sovereign component of the United Kingdom, not Southern Ireland or perhaps more to the point, not the EU. Project Truth!

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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 3:53 pm

:ninja: It's not just the Republicans who had terrorist groups..... :ninja:
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby LN Strike Eagle on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 4:06 pm

Finningley Boy wrote:
DerekF wrote:Or another way of putting it is that the hard won peace in Northern Ireland is being put in jeopardy by those that have put their faith in falsehoods by the the likes of Gove, Johnson, Davies, Farage etc (where are they now btw). From the beginning it was clear that the Irish border would be major sticking point and so it has proved to be. Not Project Fear but Project Truth.

The future safety and security of the world must lie in less nationalism and more in cooperation between groups of nations and we are coming out of one the biggest - genius work Brexiteers. :clown:

What you are actually saying is the IRA are calling the shots. Nobody suggested anything about a hard border, a soft border or a border with soft and hard centres. The entire flap was thrown up by the EU. The British side have betrayed no intention to put in place any border checks over and above what currently exists. Quite frankly, if it has to be so then that's that. Northern Ireland is a sovereign component of the United Kingdom, not Southern Ireland or perhaps more to the point, not the EU. Project Truth!

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Project nonsense, perhaps.

The Northern Irish border was always an issue. If we leave the EU, and the Customs Union, there is a different regulatory framework in place on either side of it. To ensure that goods into and out of those different areas comply, a border with proper checks needs to be installed - the EU will not tolerate an open border into their territory, and neither should we, if "taking back control of our borders" was ever a serious bone of contention for those that led and voted us into this position. The Good Friday agreement (a binding international treaty) requires regulatory alignment on both sides of the border. How do you have that if you're a third country outside of the EU entirely? You're either in the CU or out of it. If it's the latter, you need a border.

The "WTO option" that is so often peddled out by those without a clue and/or spurious intentions would also require a hard border - without it, you won't even get WTO terms, because WTO insists that goods have to be measured and checked for compliance and quotas.

This notion that the EU are somehow our enemy baffles me. We are the EU. We have a say, we have a seat at the table, they are mostly our NATO allies. Where does this narrative come from that they're somehow impeding us? :dizzy:
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby ericbee123 on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 4:08 pm

Why is it in the EU interest to let us just revoke Article 50 and carry on in the EU as though nothing has happened?

Surely it’s now in the EU’s intrerest force us to leave, then reapply under their terms - adopting the Euro and joining Schengen. No opt opts. No rebates.

If we are lucky they might just let us off the divorce bill before letting us rejoin. I wouldn’t though. I’d have that as well. If I had such a weak partner desperate to stop With me, after realising life without me was too hard without me after starting divorce procedings. You only get one chance in life to have this much of an upper hand in a relationship.

Even the weakest person wouldn’t just take them back again without conditions.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby iainpeden on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 4:10 pm

Brevet Cable wrote::ninja: It's not just the Republicans who had terrorist groups..... :ninja:


Spot on there.

I'd love to see a demographic breakdown of those of us in this discussion; those old enough to remember events like the Hyde Park bombing and the attack on the PM at Brighton and those who aren't. Three and a half thousand people died in the Irish "troubles", mostly innocent bystanders murdered by terrorists on both sides of the political/religious divide.

Nobody wants that to return but to even accept it would if the withdrawal doesn't happen smoothly is surrendering to the men of violence or using it as an excuse to keep the status quo.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby iainpeden on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 4:16 pm

ericbee123 wrote:Why is it in the EU interest to let us just revoke Article 50 and carry on in the EU as though nothing has happened?

Surely it’s now in the EU’s intrerest force us to leave, then reapply under their terms - adopting the Euro and joining Schengen. No opt opts. No rebates.

If we are lucky they might just let us off the divorce bill before letting us rejoin. I wouldn’t though. I’d have that as well. If I had such a weak partner desperate to stop With me, after realising life without me was too hard without me after starting divorce procedings. You only get one chance in life to have this much of an upper hand in a relationship.

Even the weakest person wouldn’t just take them back again without conditions.


It isn't in the EUs interest to simply take us back if the decision is made to revoke Article 50 and I am sure the relationship over the next 50 years would be even rockier than over the first 50. Nobody in power - apart from the PM - seems to accept that the EU have made concessions to a country which is leaving the club. Despite the trade they could easily have said, 2 years ago, ok you're going we will spend the next 2 years preparing the 26 countries for a situation where trade between the UK and EU is on WTO rules and mitigating the negative effects on the 26.

If we return to the EU asking to renegotiate all we will get is a great big NON/NEIN.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby ericbee123 on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 4:48 pm

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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 4:50 pm

Assuming we did decide we wanted to stay, everything would revolve around whatever decision the ECJ makes about rescinding Article 50.
If they decide we can do that unilaterally, then the EU couldn't change a thing.
If they decide it would have to be agreed by both parties, then that's where it would get interesting.

There are several reasons why the EU would want us to stay -
Because we're the third biggest contributor ( even after our rebates )
Because we're a heck of a lot less of a problem than the likes of Spain, Italy & Greece
Because they'd probably think that by doing so it may put other Members thinking about leaving
Because our Government is stupid....they go overboard on any new EU laws, they write into law things which the EU don't intend to be laws, and they invoke opt-outs for legislation which we often still end up abiding by.

Whilst they could have said from the off that they wouldn't make a deal, all that would have resulted in is us sticking two fingers up at them and walking away, which wouldn't have benefited anyone ( other than the Americans )
Far better to play 'softly softly catchee monkey' which could result in us 'leaving but not leaving'.

Edited to add...

ericbee123 wrote:Interesting read.


Being honest, I've always felt that any problems would come from the so-called Loyalists not the Republicans - PIRA lost their main bases of funding & realised that armed conflict wasn't getting them anywhere.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Finningley Boy on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 5:59 pm

Brevet Cable wrote::ninja: It's not just the Republicans who had terrorist groups..... :ninja:

Yes of course, but who's threatening to kick off over any border problems?

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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 6:04 pm

The ones who are supposedly on our side...the ones PMTM was stupid enough to get into bed with to keep her parliamentary majority.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby ericbee123 on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 6:52 pm

That makes no sense. Why would Unionists get upset about a hard border ?

You’re getting mixed up. They are worried that any hard border would effectively be between NI and the U.K. not NI and Ireland.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby starbuck on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 7:16 pm

ericbee123 wrote:That makes no sense. Why would Unionists get upset about a hard border ?

You’re getting mixed up. They are worried that any hard border would effectively be between NI and the U.K. not NI and Ireland.


Loyalists wouldn't get upset about a hard border between NI and the Republic, that's obvious.

What they would get upset about would be the Provos getting active again if there was a hard border. One will lead to the other.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby ericbee123 on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 7:24 pm

starbuck wrote:
ericbee123 wrote:That makes no sense. Why would Unionists get upset about a hard border ?

You’re getting mixed up. They are worried that any hard border would effectively be between NI and the U.K. not NI and Ireland.


Loyalists wouldn't get upset about a hard border between NI and the Republic, that's obvious.

What they would get upset about would be the Provos getting active again if there was a hard border. One will lead to the other.


Not according to ex-PIRA members in that article I linked to.
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