Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 7:25 pm

Nope, I'm not getting mixed up.
The Unionists don't want the UK to leave the EU at all, because - as Northern Ireland was pro-Remain - they feel it could lead for calls for NI to leave the UK and unite with Eire.
Similarly, they also believe that if there's a 'hard border' between NI and Eire it'll lead to calls for NI to leave the UK and unite with Eire.

Edited to add...
starbuck wrote:What they would get upset about would be the Provos getting active again if there was a hard border. One will lead to the other.

PIRA/Sinn Fein would be more likely to welcome a hard border, as - in their opinion - it could lead to calls for NI to unite with Eire, which is what Unionists fear will happen.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby lambo17841 on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 7:36 pm

Seem to remember reading if we went back in rebates would stop under new terms.

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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby ericbee123 on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 7:42 pm

The world is now completely different to the world during The Triubles. For a start the USA are now involved in an ongoing war against terrorism and one of their “bezzy mates” is currently the U.K. in that fight.

You don’t want to be starting terrorist activity in the 21st Century.

Even the most vocal supporters in Boston would struggle to find people attending fundraising events if you start exploding bombs and killing women and children again
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 7:43 pm

lambo17841 wrote:Seem to remember reading if we went back in rebates would stop under new terms.


If we left then rejoined at a later date, yes - we'd have to start negotiations afresh.

ericbee123 wrote:The world is now completely different to the world during The Triubles. For a start the USA are now involved in an ongoing war against terrorism and one of their “bezzy mates” is currently the U.K. in that fight.
You don’t want to be starting terrorist activity in the 21st Century.
Even the most vocal supporters in Boston would struggle to find people attending fundraising events if you start exploding bombs and killing women and children again


Hence why I stated in one of my earlier posts: "PIRA lost their main bases of funding & realised that armed conflict wasn't getting them anywhere."
PIRA/SF are unlikely to return to terrorism as they've realised they can get more done by political means.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby starbuck on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 7:54 pm

Brevet Cable wrote:Nope, I'm not getting mixed up.
The Unionists don't want the UK to leave the EU at all, because - as Northern Ireland was pro-Remain - they feel it could lead for calls for NI to leave the UK and unite with Eire.
Similarly, they also believe that if there's a 'hard border' between NI and Eire it'll lead to calls for NI to leave the UK and unite with Eire.

Edited to add...
starbuck wrote:What they would get upset about would be the Provos getting active again if there was a hard border. One will lead to the other.

PIRA/Sinn Fein would be more likely to welcome a hard border, as - in their opinion - it could lead to calls for NI to unite with Eire, which is what Unionists fear will happen.


Blimey it's confusing isn't it! :dizzy:

Have the DUP now changed to be anti-brexit then? I've missed that. They were very much Brexit supporting 2 years ago.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Tue 27 Nov 2018, 9:25 pm

Yes, they are Eurosceptic & did support the Leave campaign.

As things stand, though, it depends who you listen to with them.
You've got some saying they don't want to leave at all.
You've got some saying they don't want to leave, unless there's a 'non-Brexit Brexit' deal similar to what Norway's got.
You've got some saying they do want to leave, as long as there's a 'no borders' deal.
You've got some who only want a 'soft Brexit'.
And you've got others who only want a 'hard Brexit'.

The one thing most of them don't want is a Brexit which leads to the imposition of hard borders.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby starbuck on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 10:18 am

Brevet Cable wrote:
As things stand, though, it depends who you listen to with them.
You've got some saying they don't want to leave at all.
You've got some saying they don't want to leave, unless there's a 'non-Brexit Brexit' deal similar to what Norway's got.
You've got some saying they do want to leave, as long as there's a 'no borders' deal.
You've got some who only want a 'soft Brexit'.
And you've got others who only want a 'hard Brexit'.

The one thing most of them don't want is a Brexit which leads to the imposition of hard borders.


No - I think you're getting mixed up with the Conservatives there. Oh, no, hang on, I mean Labour.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 10:27 am

:lol:
The Dups have only got 10 MPs in the HOC ( and I think it's 3 or 4 in the Lords ) but like the mainland MPs they aren't singing from the same hymn-sheet.
And when it comes to the NI Assembly they're even more off-message.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 12:08 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162
Treasury analysis of Mrs May's deal suggests it will leave the size of the UK economy up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years, compared with staying in the EU.
But a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit, the new estimates say.
(snip)
According to the Daily Telegraph, the Treasury analysis will show that under Mrs May's deal, the UK's GDP will be between 1% and 2% lower over 15 years than if it stayed in the EU, compared with 7.5% lower under a no deal situation.


And on a different note.....
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/how-wales-40-mps-vote-15470969

Out of the 40 Welsh MPs, our survey shows the vast majority are against the deal:
Against: 33
Undecided: 2
Probably For: 1
For: 4

For context, there are 28 Welsh Labour MPs, eight Welsh Conservative MPs and four Plaid Cymru MPs.


The future of the UK at stake, so Labour & Plaid Cymru MPs are playing politics and 3 of the Conservative MPs haven't got the balls to say how they'll vote. :dizzy:

No doubt other parts of the Country are the same.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby iainpeden on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 5:36 pm

On the news today:
Labour to back a second referendum,
Government produces sets of figures - all pointing to a drop in GDP
Bank of England suggests a no-deal Brexit would be worse than the financial crisis 10 years ago.

Anybody else getting suspicious that we're being softened up for that second referendum when the deal is not passed in parliament?
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Mooshie1956 on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 6:08 pm

iainpeden wrote:Anybody else getting suspicious that we're being softened up for that second referendum when the deal is not passed in parliament?


Wouldn't surprise me one bit if we get a new referendum with 3 choices:
1. Remain
2. PMTM's Deal
3. No Deal Brexit
Weight it so as remain wins this time.
If a new referendum is called then it really should be just options 2 and 3 and I'm a remain voter.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 6:47 pm

iainpeden wrote:On the news today:
Labour to back a second referendum,
Government produces sets of figures - all pointing to a drop in GDP
Bank of England suggests a no-deal Brexit would be worse than the financial crisis 10 years ago.

Anybody else getting suspicious that we're being softened up for that second referendum when the deal is not passed in parliament?

None of that is anything new, though, and there have been increasing calls from Labour MPs over the last few months for either another referendum or a GE ( with the exception of Corbyn, who just wants another GE )
The negativity from HMG & the BofE have been there since before the Referendum vote, having been part of what the pro-Leave campaigners labelled 'Project Fear'.

Another referendum? Unless PMTM's been playing an absolute blinder, I'd say that's still highly unlikely if only because to do so would mean the Conservative Party committing political suicide.

Mooshie1956 wrote:Weight it so as remain wins this time.


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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby parsley on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 8:30 pm

Well I found these words from David Davis when he stood up in a Commons debate in 2002...he obviously didn't recall making them when the stay or leave referendum came about -

“Referendums should be held when the electorate are in the best possible position to make a judgment. They should be held when people can view all the arguments for and against and when those arguments have been rigorously tested. In short, referendums should be held when people know exactly what they are getting. So legislation should be debated by Members of Parliament on the Floor of the House, and then put to the electorate for the voters to judge.

“We should not ask people to vote on a blank sheet of paper and tell them to trust us to fill in the details afterwards. For referendums to be fair and compatible with our parliamentary process, we need the electors to be as well informed as possible and to know exactly what they are voting for. Referendums need to be treated as an addition to the parliamentary process, not as a substitute for it.”
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 8:49 pm

From 2011...
The other two points that do not add up to much were, first, that a three-way referendum is confusing. However, that is not a problem because the motion calls for a Bill in the next Session, which can deal with any confusion. We can, in our wisdom, work out how to phrase a referendum—or series of referendums, if necessary —that will be understandable.
(snip)
Indeed, we could have two referendums. As it happens, it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed.


Now, who do you think said that...... :whistle:
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby parsley on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 9:03 pm

Brevet Cable wrote:From 2011...
The other two points that do not add up to much were, first, that a three-way referendum is confusing. However, that is not a problem because the motion calls for a Bill in the next Session, which can deal with any confusion. We can, in our wisdom, work out how to phrase a referendum—or series of referendums, if necessary —that will be understandable.
(snip)
Indeed, we could have two referendums. As it happens, it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed.


Now, who do you think said that...... :whistle:[/qu

Hmmm...not sure who in 2011 but Justin Greening regurgitated it in July this year as a Hard Brexit,Soft Brexit,No Brexit
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby parsley on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 9:14 pm

Brevet Cable wrote:From 2011...
The other two points that do not add up to much were, first, that a three-way referendum is confusing. However, that is not a problem because the motion calls for a Bill in the next Session, which can deal with any confusion. We can, in our wisdom, work out how to phrase a referendum—or series of referendums, if necessary —that will be understandable.
(snip)
Indeed, we could have two referendums. As it happens, it might make more sense to have the second referendum after the renegotiation is completed.


Now, who do you think said that...... :whistle:


Just trawling through Hansard for 2011 to find it but the question is will I fall asleep before I reach it ?
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 9:14 pm

I'll give you a couple of clues....he's got a hyphenated surname and a penchant for pin-stripe suits. :biggrin:
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby starbuck on Wed 28 Nov 2018, 11:08 pm

Brevet Cable wrote:I'll give you a couple of clues....he's got a hyphenated surname and a penchant for pin-stripe suits. :biggrin:


Well, obviously, it's that private school educated Oxford University elitist and famously Euro Sceptic - Anthony Wedgwood-Benn.

Not sure about the pin stripe suits though..
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby ericbee123 on Thu 29 Nov 2018, 3:05 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46380463

UK and USA agree an Openskies agreement.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby Brevet Cable on Thu 29 Nov 2018, 7:35 am

:biggrin:
Nah, 'Wedgie' would have been much more eloquent.
And if he was still alive and an MP he'd have done a better job of it than the current shambles.....on second thoughts, he wouldn't even have to be alive to do that! :lol:
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Brevet Cable on Thu 29 Nov 2018, 9:42 am

PMTM obviously had waffles for breakfast this morning :lol:
Unsurprisingly, the Liaison Committee MPs questioning her appear to have got sick of this and are giving her grief over her repeated failure to answer their questions.

Edited to add.....
Granted some of them are hard-line Eurosceptics, but the Conservative MPs on the Liaison Committee are giving PMTM as big a kicking as any of the other MPs there.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby rockfordstone on Thu 29 Nov 2018, 9:47 am

if a government presides over a complete and utter "Well, there's no need for that", we get the opportunity to vote them out every 5 years.

the current government propped up by another party because they couldn't win a majority has spent 2 and a half years delivering a complete shambles of a deal, trying to deliver on promises that were never really a reality. I don't see why giving the people the chance to vote on what ultimately affects us, our kids and grand-kids is such a bad idea. Especially now we know the likely outcomes.

Farage himself said a narrow win for remain would be unfinished business and require a second referendum, even JRM stated the same thing in the commons at one point.

if leave wins again so be it, but we can't just say in 5 years actually we want to reverse our decision and expect to walk back in on the same deal we had before.
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Re: Would you vote for a new referendum?

Postby MiG_Eater on Thu 29 Nov 2018, 10:50 am

I would agree with you if I felt that the government had at any point been trying to deliver a 'good' Brexit.

I never once believed that anyone who had any choice in the matter had any true desire for us to leave the EU, and I think the whole sorry process has been designed to thwart Brexit so that people could make exactly the kinds of arguments you are now making.

I certainly wouldn't object to a referendum where the options were to accept the EU's deal or leave without one, as at least this would put us in a better negotiating position.
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby Spiny Norman on Thu 29 Nov 2018, 10:51 am

ericbee123 wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46380463

UK and USA agree an Openskies agreement.


I like the deal with Switzerland. I can see that needing a couple of other agreements to make functional, unless HOTOLs are being introduced by BA, easyJet, etc!
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Re: Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

Postby CJS on Thu 29 Nov 2018, 10:52 am

I think from the 21 or so pages of discussion, we have a fairly definitive, two lettered, answer to the question posed by the thread in the first place!
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