COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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FGR2
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FGR2 »

Tommy wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 4:39 pm


Absolutely disastrous. We could have a government as competent as New Zealand, but if this is how the public treats the virus, we’re all screwed for a long time.

Hopefully the now released test and trace app will help things, and the Government restrictions coming in, because as a nation we *must* do better than this.
That is concerning however I wonder how many would use the defence in the first instance, that Cummings drove hundreds of miles in his car with his wife who had symptoms. It’s not right but I think the Government lost a lot of goodwill there. Everyone was very compliant at the beginning.

The other thing I see is if some random person phones you and tells you to isolate for two weeks, then would you? Especially if it meant losing two weeks wages for what could be no reason at all. If you could get a test to find out then I am sure more people would take notice.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Ken Shabby »

Tommy wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 4:39 pm


Absolutely disastrous. We could have a government as competent as New Zealand, but if this is how the public treats the virus, we’re all screwed for a long time.

Hopefully the now released test and trace app will help things, and the Government restrictions coming in, because as a nation we *must* do better than this.
I think more people will start taking the virus seriously when it starts killing young people who don’t have underlying medical conditions. At the moment, most perceive it to be be an illness that kills mainly older people and I’d guess that most who ignore instructions to self-isolate are in the younger age groups and in good health.

Also, the graph (source?) doesn’t necessarily demonstrate a flagrant disregard for the instructions. It may be that some people e.g. those living on their own, or those with children to feed, had little choice other than to go out. Their failure to self-isolate may have been quickly popping to the local shop once every two days, whilst taking every precaution they could to avoid coming into close contact with others. It doesn’t necessarily mean they were going to work or deliberately interacting with large groups in a social setting.
Ken

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CJS
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

FGR2 wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 4:49 pm
Tommy wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 4:39 pm


Absolutely disastrous. We could have a government as competent as New Zealand, but if this is how the public treats the virus, we’re all screwed for a long time.

Hopefully the now released test and trace app will help things, and the Government restrictions coming in, because as a nation we *must* do better than this.
That is concerning however I wonder how many would use the defence in the first instance, that Cummings drove hundreds of miles in his car with his wife who had symptoms. It’s not right but I think the Government lost a lot of goodwill there. Everyone was very compliant at the beginning.

The other thing I see is if some random person phones you and tells you to isolate for two weeks, then would you? Especially if it meant losing two weeks wages for what could be no reason at all. If you could get a test to find out then I am sure more people would take notice.
They're only 'some random person' if you're an idiot though, surely? If you're not, and you actually want to help stop the spread of this thing before it (possibly/probably) gets out of hand again, then you'll listen to the NHS test and trace operative and self isolate.

The point of the self isolating thing is that you may not show positive on a test straight away anyway, isn't it? That's why, all along, you have had to self isolate for 14 days if someone in your house gets it, but if their symptoms allow it (ie they feel better), they only have to do so for ten days.

You could be exposed on day 1 but not have symptoms until day 13 and therefore not get a positive result if that was the case, or could you (in theory) test everyone who thought they had been exposed on day one out of 14, and if they didn't have it then they weren't at risk? I'm not 100% sure still - and I should be!

Our advice at school is that, should anyone in our 'bubble' (for me that's my class) have a positive test, the rest of us would have to self isolate for 14 days, but there's no advice to go and get a test if that's the case, unless we develop symptoms ourselves. That's also why the 'contact of a contact' thing means that if I had to self isolate because a child in my class tested positive, my partner and son wouldn't have to, unless I got symptoms.

Finally - because I can see that I am waffling on now - the 14 days is meant to be from when you were exposed, isn't it? So I went to a cafe on Saturday just gone - if someone else in there developed symptoms on Monday (so within 2 days of me being exposed to them) and had a test on Tuesday with a positive result back on Wednesday and the track and trace people phoned me on Thursday (ie 5 days after I had been exposed to them) then my self isolation would only have to be 9 days from that point - is that right?

(I am not calling you an idiot FGR2 by the way, because I am sure you'd take their advice.)
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IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

Anyone see the SKY News interview with Kay Burley and Dominic Raab where he admitted the False Positive rate is Very Hight so only 7% of tests will be successful in identifying those that have the virus.
That coming from a Tory Minister.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

Is it really as low as that?
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5944
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by 5944 »

CJS wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 5:27 am
Is it really as low as that?
No. It's badly misinterpreted.

Say 1000 people get tested, and 1 person actually has Covid. 999 people don't have it, but there's a chance the test will show 9 of those people have it. So 90% are false positives, but that's miniscule compared to the amount of a correct negative results.

It's better to have false positive than false negative results.

But the number of positive results is increasing, as is the number of hospital admissions. So it's not down to dodgy data or false positives, it's because the virus is becoming more prevalent.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rockfordstone »

CJS wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 8:24 pm
They're only 'some random person' if you're an idiot though, surely? If you're not, and you actually want to help stop the spread of this thing before it (possibly/probably) gets out of hand again, then you'll listen to the NHS test and trace operative and self isolate.
i think what he is saying is how does someone calling you from test and trace prove they are from test and trace. does a number on your phone come up and say test and trace, or is it just another unknown number which could be test and trace, a company calling you about insurance or your phone provider.

there have been reported cases of scammers calling people saying they are from test and trace but not. proving identity on the phone isn't that easy, and it is possible you could be quarantined for 14 days because some scammer fancied having a laugh.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Gt5500 »

FGR2 wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 4:49 pm
The other thing I see is if some random person phones you and tells you to isolate for two weeks, then would you? Especially if it meant losing two weeks wages for what could be no reason at all. If you could get a test to find out then I am sure more people would take notice.
And that right there is the real crux of the issue, how many of us would be prepared to lose 2 weeks pay? It's easy to say we'd do it for the greater good but when it comes to it, would we?
Those who work for companies that pay full pay during quarantine periods shouldn't forget that not everyone has that luxury.

roger
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by roger »

CJS - yes, self isolation is for 14 days from exposure to the infected person, rather than 14 days from when T&T call you. It appears that we are not ourselves infectious until around 5 days or more after exposure, so the chances of you spreading it onwards in the first few days after exposure are very small.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rockfordstone »

Gt5500 wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 9:26 am
FGR2 wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 4:49 pm
The other thing I see is if some random person phones you and tells you to isolate for two weeks, then would you? Especially if it meant losing two weeks wages for what could be no reason at all. If you could get a test to find out then I am sure more people would take notice.
And that right there is the real crux of the issue, how many of us would be prepared to lose 2 weeks pay? It's easy to say we'd do it for the greater good but when it comes to it, would we?
Those who work for companies that pay full pay during quarantine periods shouldn't forget that not everyone has that luxury.
it's also worth noting that its entirely possible (albeit unlikely) to quarantine for 14 days then be asked to quarantine again the day after. you could be expected to quarantine multiple times and lose multiple weeks wages without actually having had the virus.

understanding the level of "immunity" you can get from having had it and being able to accurately test who has had it already is as important as testing for who currently has it imo.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Ken Shabby »

rockfordstone wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 9:58 am
Gt5500 wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 9:26 am
FGR2 wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 4:49 pm
The other thing I see is if some random person phones you and tells you to isolate for two weeks, then would you? Especially if it meant losing two weeks wages for what could be no reason at all. If you could get a test to find out then I am sure more people would take notice.
And that right there is the real crux of the issue, how many of us would be prepared to lose 2 weeks pay? It's easy to say we'd do it for the greater good but when it comes to it, would we?
Those who work for companies that pay full pay during quarantine periods shouldn't forget that not everyone has that luxury.
it's also worth noting that its entirely possible (albeit unlikely) to quarantine for 14 days then be asked to quarantine again the day after. you could be expected to quarantine multiple times and lose multiple weeks wages without actually having had the virus.

understanding the level of "immunity" you can get from having had it and being able to accurately test who has had it already is as important as testing for who currently has it imo.
And what is meant by having been “in contact” with someone who had COVID-19?

Is it simply that you were in the same pub, museum, restaurant or whatever as them? If so, what happened to all this stuff saying you wouldn’t catch COVID unless you were in close proximity with an infected person over a period of time, and that you couldn’t catch it simply from walking past someone?

Are we really being expected to put our lives on hold for 10-14 days because we sat in the same building as someone who was infected, yet might never have been closer than 20-30 feet to them?

This isn’t a rant by the way. I’m just asking as I want to get my head round it.
Ken

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rdchawk
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rdchawk »

Exactly as according to a friend in the NHS you have to be in contact for a period of about 10mins for it be passed on
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by pb643 »

Ken Shabby wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 10:15 am
rockfordstone wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 9:58 am
Gt5500 wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 9:26 am
FGR2 wrote:
Thu 24 Sep 2020, 4:49 pm
The other thing I see is if some random person phones you and tells you to isolate for two weeks, then would you? Especially if it meant losing two weeks wages for what could be no reason at all. If you could get a test to find out then I am sure more people would take notice.
And that right there is the real crux of the issue, how many of us would be prepared to lose 2 weeks pay? It's easy to say we'd do it for the greater good but when it comes to it, would we?
Those who work for companies that pay full pay during quarantine periods shouldn't forget that not everyone has that luxury.
it's also worth noting that its entirely possible (albeit unlikely) to quarantine for 14 days then be asked to quarantine again the day after. you could be expected to quarantine multiple times and lose multiple weeks wages without actually having had the virus.

understanding the level of "immunity" you can get from having had it and being able to accurately test who has had it already is as important as testing for who currently has it imo.
And what is meant by having been “in contact” with someone who had COVID-19?

Is it simply that you were in the same pub, museum, restaurant or whatever as them? If so, what happened to all this stuff saying you wouldn’t catch COVID unless you were in close proximity with an infected person over a period of time, and that you couldn’t catch it simply from walking past someone?

Are we really being expected to put our lives on hold for 10-14 days because we sat in the same building as someone who was infected, yet might never have been closer than 20-30 feet to them?

This isn’t a rant by the way. I’m just asking as I want to get my head round it.
I have filled in a track and trace form at an RSPB nature reserve, having not been inside any buildings (they were all closed) and only been within about 15 feet of other persons, except the one who asked me to fill out the form. Yet had breakfast in Mcdonalds (virtually empty!) and no records taken. Both of these were in late August. Both seemed odd to me.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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rdchawk wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 10:40 am
Exactly as according to a friend in the NHS you have to be in contact for a period of about 10mins for it be passed on
I guess one issue is that it would be impossible - to all intents and purposes - to know where within a building someone had been and for how long they may have been close enough to a person with the disease. I have heard the ten minute thing too, but presumably ten seconds would be enough if a sneeze or cough came my way.

The whole self isolating thing must be a nightmare for those who really can't afford to miss two weeks work, however there is an issue around the policing of it too isn't there? i.e. it's not being policed in any meaningful way, so if I am asked to self isolate it's only really my moral compass that is going to make me do so, rather than any realistic threat of a fine or even a mild telling off.
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roger
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by roger »

The original (failed) Track and Trace app only triggered a risk of contact if you were within 2m of the infected person for more than 15 minutes, if I recall correctly. I assume the new app uses the same rules.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by vandal »

I would have thought with Track & Trace, legitimacy of the call would be provided by the caller advising you where you had come into contact with an infected person - it would have to have been where you recorded your details - surely the caller would disclose this information for you to know the call was genuine, or at least the date your details were recorded?

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by vandal »

rdchawk wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 10:40 am
Exactly as according to a friend in the NHS you have to be in contact for a period of about 10mins for it be passed on
Forgive my asking, but is that contact as in close proximity for 10 minutes or in the same room / space but socially distanced for 10 minutes?

Examples would be an infected person in a taxi or an infected person in the staff canteen of any premise but socially distanced from anyone else in the room.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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by vandal » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 4:07 pm

I would have thought with Track & Trace, legitimacy of the call would be provided by the caller advising you where you had come into contact with an infected person - it would have to have been where you recorded your details - surely the caller would disclose this information for you to know the call was genuine, or at least the date your details were recorded?
The new T&T does not record the location where you had the contact with an infected person.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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Post by vandal » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 4:20 pm

rdchawk wrote: ↑Fri 25 Sep 2020, 11:40 am
Exactly as according to a friend in the NHS you have to be in contact for a period of about 10mins for it be passed on
Forgive my asking, but is that contact as in close proximity for 10 minutes or in the same room / space but socially distanced for 10 minutes?

Examples would be an infected person in a taxi or an infected person in the staff canteen of any premise but socially distanced from anyone else in the room.
Most risks in life fall onto a continuous spectrum with no sharp safe/unsafe boundaries. The Covid risk goes up with time of expose. It goes up the closer you are to an infected person (and indeed goes up sharply, 1m distance is about 25 times more risky than 2m according to Chris Whitty). And the size of, and degree of ventilation in, the environment you are in has a significant effect, so a small enclosed space like a taxi is a higher risk than the staff canteen.

Close contact with an infected loved one (hugs and kisses) will pretty much guarantee you getting infected within seconds. This is why so many of the restrictions relate to what we can and can't do in our own homes - it also assumes that most of us do not give hugs and kisses to taxi drivers and to work colleagues in the canteen! At the other end of the spectrum, keeping 2m away from someone outdoors has an almost zero risk.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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roger wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 4:29 pm
Post by vandal » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 4:20 pm

rdchawk wrote: ↑Fri 25 Sep 2020, 11:40 am
Exactly as according to a friend in the NHS you have to be in contact for a period of about 10mins for it be passed on
Forgive my asking, but is that contact as in close proximity for 10 minutes or in the same room / space but socially distanced for 10 minutes?

Examples would be an infected person in a taxi or an infected person in the staff canteen of any premise but socially distanced from anyone else in the room.
Most risks in life fall onto a continuous spectrum with no sharp safe/unsafe boundaries. The Covid risk goes up with time of expose. It goes up the closer you are to an infected person (and indeed goes up sharply, 1m distance is about 25 times more risky than 2m according to Chris Whitty). And the size of, and degree of ventilation in, the environment you are in has a significant effect, so a small enclosed space like a taxi is a higher risk than the staff canteen.

Close contact with an infected loved one (hugs and kisses) will pretty much guarantee you getting infected within seconds. This is why so many of the restrictions relate to what we can and can't do in our own homes - it also assumes that most of us do not give hugs and kisses to taxi drivers and to work colleagues in the canteen! At the other end of the spectrum, keeping 2m away from someone outdoors has an almost zero risk.
👍

Pretty much what I thought.

If anyone at my workplace unluckily caught Covid 19, I'd probably self isolate as a precaution even if I knew I'd had little or no contact with the person concerned, but only from the point of view that close family members are deemed vulnerable.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Ken Shabby »

roger wrote:
Fri 25 Sep 2020, 4:05 pm
by vandal » Fri 25 Sep 2020, 4:07 pm

I would have thought with Track & Trace, legitimacy of the call would be provided by the caller advising you where you had come into contact with an infected person - it would have to have been where you recorded your details - surely the caller would disclose this information for you to know the call was genuine, or at least the date your details were recorded?
The new T&T does not record the location where you had the contact with an infected person.
That will inspire people to self-isolate!
Ken

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Zoom »

I installed the Wetherspoons app today which comes with its own Track and Trace; it's specific to the pub you visit and apart from that doesn't seem to do much apart from provide a phone version of the paper form you have to fill in otherwise. The place was filling up at 1730 I certainly won't be going again any time soon at that time of day/

Not sure of the legal stuff; if you are contacted by NHS T/T it's a criminal offence not to self isolate but if it's via the new app it's not???

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by roger »

From Monday (28th Sep) you face up to a £10k fine if you do not self-isolate if either you have a positive test or you are instructed to self isolate by T&T - it doesn't matter if T&T contact you by phone, email, text or through the app.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... tion#fined

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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At least I know why Manchester is struggling to lower the infection rate
Up to 1,700 students will isolate for 14 days after 99 at Manchester Metropolitan University tested positive for Covid-19.
Full article here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... r-54289648

Edit to add, the son has just told me that apparently, they had a mass rave in the Halls of residence, how true that is I don't know. If true then throw them out and send them home.
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Mooshie1956
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Mooshie1956 »

roger wrote:
Sat 26 Sep 2020, 8:23 am
From Monday (28th Sep) you face up to a £10k fine if you do not self-isolate if either you have a positive test or you are instructed to self isolate by T&T - it doesn't matter if T&T contact you by phone, email, text or through the app.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... tion#fined
More just out of curiosity, what happens if you don't have the app, or signed any T&T's and they contact you?. Doesn't that breech date protection ?. Only asking.
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