COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

[Zoom]

It is normal for anti-bodies to decline. You're not going to produce them if you're not infected. Your memory B cells should be able to trigger a response to the virus (along with T cells) if you are re-infected.

TBH there are not a lot of human antibody tests that are generally used; I think measles / mumps / rubella may be one, HIV was also a common one at the time. My field is Blood Bank where antibodies produced eg in response to a blood transfusion or pregnancy where there is exposure to a foreign antigen usually last decades despite the initial foreign red blood cells having disappeared from circulation within 120 days

Not many people produce red cell antibodies (about 6%) though and the likelihood increases with repeat transfusions / pregnancies. Foreign red cells are "tagged" with the antibody which along with the complement system removes them from circulation via the spleen. Not the same mechanism as a virus which is probably not going to give 2 hoots if it has some immunoglobulin molecules attached to it (which might not be).

[Zoom]

hopefully yes!

[Ken Shabby]

It’s looking like immunity doesn’t last too long, however, meaning jabs will be needed twice per year. Small price to pay, though.

it's actually just the antibody that's been shown to decline in PCR tested positive patients. T cells are probably a more important factor in viral immunity.

Jabs for 7 billion people twice a year is a pretty vast task

Not everyone will need it; just the elderly and younger people with pre-existing health conditions, I would imagine. No point immunising the fit and healthy, they rarely get seriously ill from COVID.

But they will still pass it on to the elderly and younger people with pre-existing health conditions unless we are going to keep the current restrictions on close contact going ad infinitum or until such a time that the R is down to a very low number indeed

But if those elderly and younger people with pre-existing health conditions have been immunised, then they won’t catch it off non-immunised people.

[Tommy]

I don’t know whether the Tier system will work, or at least, will work better than lockdown whilst maintaining a better balance of freedom and the economy, but whatever happens, this is extremely troubling:


We’re 1 month *early* in the Government’s own scientific advisors’ worst case scenario following no divisive action.

[ted633]

'Daily' deaths are always higher at this part of the week due to the reporting lag from the weekend. Deaths were just over 100 a couple days ago.
Remember, these are death WITH covid, not from which hasn't been correctly recorded since day 1. (Which is a disgrace that it's not been correctly recorded, but that's another discussion altogether)

[CJS]

Deaths *with* Covid is what Prof Whitty would have been referring to though, and even allowing for the weekend lag (which is only normally noticeable in a Monday btw) this is not a good news story.

[Teaboy]

'Daily' deaths are always higher at this part of the week due to the reporting lag from the weekend. Deaths were just over 100 a couple days ago.
Remember, these are death WITH covid, not from which hasn't been correctly recorded since day 1. (Which is a disgrace that it's not been correctly recorded, but that's another discussion altogether)

The sort of nonsense people were spouting 2 weeks ago in relation to deaths the week before, and you'll be saying it again when deaths are 500 a day, and a 1000 a day.

I agree though, deaths are under recorded.

Remember very few people have died in a car crash, the actual cause of death is usually blunt force trauma or blood loss/shock etc, they just died "with car crash". And the death toll is actually even lower if you discount all the people who didn't die within 28 minutes of impact. All the laws that have been brought in to stem road fatalities are a lie and a monstrous tyranny. No-one has ever been killed from being hit by a car, only from the comorbidity and complications arising from it. BAN SPEED LIMITS OPEN THE ROADS UP. Our A&Es are full of people being brought in as a result of fake "car crashes" when in reality they just have broken legs which can be treated at home with lemsip.

Average deaths has been over 200 for a week now, and the official statistics do not include those who have been kept alive or had good enough immune systems to survive the initial 28 days. It's probably 25% higher as someone pointed out with citation earlier in the thread, and all deaths are lagging behind the cases from 3 weeks ago.

[Tommy]

Remember, these are death WITH covid, not from which hasn't been correctly recorded since day 1. (Which is a disgrace that it's not been correctly recorded, but that's another discussion altogether)

Agreed, it’s another conversation to have, but the same analysis/counting was fuelled into Whitty’s analysis and worst-case scenario predictions, so it’s still the case that we’re a month ahead of the Government scientists worst case scenario prediction.

But yeah, agree it’s a separate discussion, but no matter how it’s cut, it’s still not good news at all.

[ted633]

But the other 'worst case scenario' was 50,000 cases by mid-October. Were at the end of October and only about half that. You'd of thought both cases and deaths would go hand in hand (prediction wise), but doesn't seem to be the situation at the moment.
Evidently, there's missing / misinterpreted data in either or both models. Hopefully as we learn more, these predictions can get more accurate.

[roger]

The other possibility is that there is missing data in the real cases, e.g. as a result of people with symptoms not coming forward for testing or ignoring attempts by track and trace to contact them. Hasn't Chris Whitty been saying for some weeks that the true numbers of cases is significantly higher than the number recorded?

The models rely on predicting human behaviour, and we as a species seem to do all that we can to behave unpredictably, i.e. ignore the rules. And the virus exploits it.

[Teaboy]

But the other 'worst case scenario' was 50,000 cases by mid-October. Were at the end of October and only about half that. You'd of thought both cases and deaths would go hand in hand (prediction wise), but doesn't seem to be the situation at the moment.
Evidently, there's missing / misinterpreted data in either or both models. Hopefully as we learn more, these predictions can get more accurate.

Because every single person in the country is being tested and it's coming back with the current daily totals?

Asymptomatic cases who don't know they have it - not tested, not included
Symptomatic cases who can't afford isolation and hope it's just a cold - not tested, not included
Symptomatic cases who perhaps don't care, or who can afford to self isolate out of precaution for example - not tested, not included

The ONS survey estimated up to 36,000 new cases each day at the beginning of last week, and that would not include asymptomatic which were suggested to make over 70% of cases at one point if I'm not mistaken.

So in reality, actual case numbers are going to be considerably higher than what is being picked up by testing and thus reported, and deaths are considerably higher too.

I can't get my head round the 28 day cut off from FIRST positive test and how it has been so convincing to people. It's such a blatant fiddling of the official statistics I just can't imagine being so in Boris' pocket as to fall for it.

[Tommy]

“Tier 1 plus”?

Remember that these rules were supposed to simplify, not complicate. To ensure that as many people comply as possible, it needs to be as simple as possible.

Additionally, it seems as though the restrictions are moving south.

[Teaboy]

https://twitter.com/"Kris Kris Tofferson!"/status/1321427600917565442?s=21

“Tier 1 plus”?

Remember that these rules were supposed to simplify, not complicate. To ensure that as many people comply as possible, it needs to be as simple as possible.

Additionally, it seems as though the restrictions are moving south.

You get reward points and coupons to spend on masks + £2.50 off your first delivery of remdesivir.

I had a letter from my local council this morning addressed to the household telling me that cases are going up in the area due to community transmission - suggesting people meeting up in each others houses was the route cause. Of course, no mention of schools whatsoever.

[roger]

People focus on the 28d limit only because it is the one the press are picking up on. The Government are also tracking deaths based on a 60d limit and ONS are tracking the "Covid-mentioned-on-the-death-certificate" version, daily. Every method of counting is flawed - an accurate count can never be achieved. And an accurate count isn't needed in order to see which direction and how fast the epidemic is rising.

[CJS]

https://twitter.com/"Kris Kris Tofferson!"/status/1321427600917565442?s=21

“Tier 1 plus”?

Remember that these rules were supposed to simplify, not complicate. To ensure that as many people comply as possible, it needs to be as simple as possible.

Additionally, it seems as though the restrictions are moving south.

You get reward points and coupons to spend on masks + £2.50 off your first delivery of remdesivir.

I had a letter from my local council this morning addressed to the household telling me that cases are going up in the area due to community transmission - suggesting people meeting up in each others houses was the route cause. Of course, no mention of schools whatsoever.

For me there is no question that having the schools open is probably the primary reason the spread is happening so rapidly - not just the children but having all the adults close together. However I would be loathe to close them again unless or until the really were no other options.

My gut feeling, despite them saying it won't happen, is that there will be a short but full lockdown again around Christmas. I wouldn't be at all surprised if that happened a week or two before the end of the term, so Christmas can be 'saved' and the govt hailed as heroes for making it so we can visit great aunt June on boxing Day.

A further 300+ deaths recorded today.

[Ken Shabby]

https://twitter.com/"Kris Kris Tofferson!"/status/1321427600917565442?s=21

“Tier 1 plus”?

Remember that these rules were supposed to simplify, not complicate. To ensure that as many people comply as possible, it needs to be as simple as possible.

Additionally, it seems as though the restrictions are moving south.

The Government has made a schoolboy error in numbering the most serious tier as ‘1’. They have no room for a more serious tier; perhaps in a few months’ time we’ll have Tier 1*, Tier 1 Super, Tier 1+ or Tier 1**.

I’M WRONG HERE - TIER 1 IS THE LOWEST TIER, NOT THE HIGHEST. I AM A MORON. BUT WHY COULDN’T THEY HAVE JUST CALLED THE TIERS LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH, VERY HIGH AND WRITE YOUR WILL NOW?

As I said in a previous post, the complications are such that we’ll soon after start consulting with lawyers to see if we’re allowed out of the house or whether you can have your gran round even though she lives in a higher tier but is part of your ‘support bubble’.

It’s all become stupidly complicated with laws being made up on the hoof. I’d imagine a lot of people have given up trying to work out what they’re allowed to do or not to do, and are just doing what they think is best.

I’m sure we’re heading for another national lockdown to protect the NHS, again.

[pbeardmore]

Talking of "schoolboy errors"

An apparent loophole in government rules for England has caused confusion over whether social clubs are subject to tier three Covid restrictions on serving alcohol.

In areas placed in tier three, pubs and bars must close unless they are serving substantial meals, and alcohol can only be served as part of a meal.

But some social clubs are continuing to serve alcohol to members without a substantial meal after their local councils told them it was permitted.

There are thousands of members clubs across England, including conservative clubs, working men's clubs and sports clubs.

Councils in Wirral, Preston and Fylde have all advised their local social clubs that the discrepancy exists because they hold club premises certificates and not premises licences.

The Association of Conservative Clubs, which represents more than 800 clubs, said "the legislation could be amended in the future to close this 'loop hole'".

The Department for Health and Social Care has been contacted for comment.

[starbuck]

https://twitter.com/"Kris Kris Tofferson!"/status/1321427600917565442?s=21

“Tier 1 plus”?

Remember that these rules were supposed to simplify, not complicate. To ensure that as many people comply as possible, it needs to be as simple as possible.

Additionally, it seems as though the restrictions are moving south.

The Government has made a schoolboy error in numbering the most serious tier as ‘1’. They have no room for a more serious tier; perhaps in a few months’ time we’ll have Tier 1*, Tier 1 Super, Tier 1+ or Tier 1**.

Except they haven't. Tier 3 is the most serious, not Tier 1

[Teaboy]

https://twitter.com/"Kris Kris Tofferson!"/status/1321427600917565442?s=21

“Tier 1 plus”?

Remember that these rules were supposed to simplify, not complicate. To ensure that as many people comply as possible, it needs to be as simple as possible.

Additionally, it seems as though the restrictions are moving south.

The Government has made a schoolboy error in numbering the most serious tier as ‘1’. They have no room for a more serious tier; perhaps in a few months’ time we’ll have Tier 1*, Tier 1 Super, Tier 1+ or Tier 1**.

This highlights how easy it is for someone to end up in the wrong place, thinking that Tier 1 is the highest one might go "Oh... that place is tier 3 I shall visit".

What was wrong with just calling it Medium, High, Very High ?

[cg_341]

Because they are tiers, and the first tier is very obviously at the bottom?

[FarnboroJohn]

https://twitter.com/"Kris Kris Tofferson!"/status/1321427600917565442?s=21

“Tier 1 plus”?

Remember that these rules were supposed to simplify, not complicate. To ensure that as many people comply as possible, it needs to be as simple as possible.

Additionally, it seems as though the restrictions are moving south.

The Government has made a schoolboy error in numbering the most serious tier as ‘1’. They have no room for a more serious tier; perhaps in a few months’ time we’ll have Tier 1*, Tier 1 Super, Tier 1+ or Tier 1**.

This highlights how easy it is for someone to end up in the wrong place, thinking that Tier 1 is the highest one might go "Oh... that place is tier 3 I shall visit".

What was wrong with just calling it Medium, High, Very High ?

Or even low, medium, high: leaving room for very high, super-high and super-duper high above!

[Ken Shabby]

Sorry, everyone - I got my tiers mixed-up. I’ve been telling my friends I’m not allowed to meet them in the pub, but could have been doing so all the time.

The funny things is that this has been going on for a couple of weeks and none of them have said I’m wrong and that there’s nothing stopping me joining them for a drink? Perhaps they’re as confused as I am?

[IATthenRIAT]

Someone told me - Atleast there is a Blessing to come out of all this covid stuff - flu stat's are Right down even ontop of the warnings that there was going to be very high rates last winter and into this winter.

[Teaboy]

Sorry, everyone - I got my tiers mixed-up. I’ve been telling my friends I’m not allowed to meet them in the pub, but could have been doing so all the time.

The funny things is that this has been going on for a couple of weeks and none of them have said I’m wrong and that there’s nothing stopping me joining them for a drink? Perhaps they’re as confused as I am?

Yes I wasn't having a go, just thought it was a good opportunity to highlight how even someone mature and accomplished in the English language can make a mistake.

[FGR2]

They are saying transmission occurs between households, but how are they getting it to start with. I haven’t eaten out, or been to a pub since January. I haven’t been on holiday or seen any friends or work colleagues since March. I don’t know anyone going out socialising or to pubs now (like they were in February/March). Most are working from home. Where are people catching it from in the wider community now? The only thing I keep hearing (from work colleagues) is certain years being off school due to a kid testing positive in a particular year. The other was a rumour of an outbreak in a local hospital. I don’t know how productive a full lockdown will be, as people are so fed up and depressed with it all now, they are not going to follow the rules with no end in sight for much longer.