Yes I know I was just tempering the newspaper headlines many saying that it will all be over by Spring. They have TBH had months of publishing bad news so now they are trying to publish happy news.ted633 wrote: ↑Tue 10 Nov 2020, 4:26 pmNowhere near as simple as that I'm afraid. If infections get reduced by 90%, then the virus is going to have much less opportunity to spread, giving people whose vaccine isn't as effective (the 10%) a far lower chance to catch it in the first place.Zoom wrote: ↑Tue 10 Nov 2020, 12:35 pmso applying back of an envelope calculations based on Pfizer's (and now Russia's) stats,
the vaccine protects 90% of those exposed from infection
leaving 5 million cases worldwide and 120,000 deaths
of those 5 million cases 95-99% are mild or asymptomatic so between 50-250k serious cases.
Can't really see us going straight back to Business as Usual once the vaccine(s) are rolled out to all
Also, influenza kills between 290k and 650k a year (WHO figures) and life carries on normally through that.
A successful vaccine(s) is excellent news and indeed not even that ground breaking because humans have been doing it for a couple of 100 years
But this is a devastating new virus that we still know little about and it's going to take a while to bring it under control. On a positive side we've already done a lot towards this through simple hygiene / containment measures.