COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Chat about anything not specifically aviation related
Post Reply
Ken Shabby
Posts: 464
Joined: Mon 29 Sep 2008, 12:23 pm
Location: Romford, Essex
Contact:

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Ken Shabby »

[/quote]
UK cases have gone up because people are ignoring simple guidelines around pubs and mixing with other households. The government can order another lockdown but I think it will have no effect at preventing the spread as sadly many people in the UK have had enough of lockdown and are doing their own thing.

Supposing in 12 months there is still no vaccine and cases / hospital admissions are rising at the current rate. I suspect governments all over the world will throw in the towel and let the virus run its course rather than put their economies into meltdown.
[/quote]


I think the rise in the number of infections is an inevitable result of the lifting of lockdown; I can’t see it’s solely down to mixing in pubs and between households. People are travelling to and from work again, are at work for hours on end, are going shopping again, are going to visitor attractions again - all this helps the virus circulate. The increase in the numbers being tested also reveals more people who are infected.

If I recall correctly, what’s happening at the moment was predicted when we went into lockdown - that once it was lifted the number of cases would start to go up again. The need for targeted lockdowns in response to specific spikes in infections was foreseen, so what we’re going through now shouldn’t come as a great surprise, although the media will milk it for all it’s worth, of course.

The focus at the moment is the rise in the number of infections that are being picked-up and how this might translate into increased hospital admissions and deaths. It will be interesting to see how the admission and death stats pan out over the next 12 weeks. If there’s no appreciable rise, I can’t see how the Government will be able to justify ongoing restrictions as we go into 2021. The damage to the economy and the social fabric they cause will be too high a price to pay.
Ken

User avatar
PeteM
Posts: 896
Joined: Thu 05 Feb 2009, 7:08 pm
Location: North Cornwall

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by PeteM »

FGR2 wrote:
Sat 19 Sep 2020, 6:59 pm

Personally, I haven’t had a holiday this year, I was hoping to get a few days in Cornwall during October, but that now looks like that will be a no-go if further restrictions come in.
It has been ridiculous in Cornwall this Summer. Just this week we took the dog for a walk on Bodmin Moor and bumped into a couple of visitors who had been to the usual North Coast hotspots such as Port Isaac, Padstow, Tintagel etc and they said it was impossible to observe safe distancing. My Sister in Newquay has remained housebound for much of the Summer and this Month due to behaviour of many visitors.

We haven't had a holiday this year and we've not even been able to enjoy our own or neighbouring county which was particularly frustrating during the April lockdown when the weather was beautiful.
Cornwall relies on tourism but I know that many residents down here will be glad when this season is over.

FGR2
Posts: 2687
Joined: Mon 15 Sep 2008, 11:12 am

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FGR2 »

PeteM wrote:
Sun 20 Sep 2020, 7:55 am
FGR2 wrote:
Sat 19 Sep 2020, 6:59 pm

Personally, I haven’t had a holiday this year, I was hoping to get a few days in Cornwall during October, but that now looks like that will be a no-go if further restrictions come in.
It has been ridiculous in Cornwall this Summer. Just this week we took the dog for a walk on Bodmin Moor and bumped into a couple of visitors who had been to the usual North Coast hotspots such as Port Isaac, Padstow, Tintagel etc and they said it was impossible to observe safe distancing. My Sister in Newquay has remained housebound for much of the Summer and this Month due to behaviour of many visitors.

We haven't had a holiday this year and we've not even been able to enjoy our own or neighbouring county which was particularly frustrating during the April lockdown when the weather was beautiful.
Cornwall relies on tourism but I know that many residents down here will be glad when this season is over.
I could imagine, I come down pretty much every year, but wouldn’t have even considered visiting during the summer for the above reasons. My interests are obviously the aviation heritage perspective (grandfather was at St Eval in WW2), photography, mining and railway heritage so I don’t see the point in going down in the height of the season with the masses. I was down there this time last year and it was ok and not busy at all. My parents came back from a week just outside Newquay on Friday and said it was ridiculous the traffic down there. They did visit Padstow late one afternoon but avoided going into the main touristy places. They went to places such as Mousehole, Sennen, St Agnes Head, Wheal Martin China Clay museum (which was apparently quiet)amongst other places.

Let’s hope it was worth it financially for the local communities, and that things return to normal next year.

Ps I can recommend Wheal Martyn for those that haven’t been there, nice nature walks, old working water wheels, historic trucks, railway wagons and the view over a working China Clay Pit.

roger
Posts: 134
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 3:21 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by roger »

The focus at the moment is the rise in the number of infections that are being picked-up and how this might translate into increased hospital admissions and deaths. It will be interesting to see how the admission and death stats pan out over the next 12 weeks. If there’s no appreciable rise, I can’t see how the Government will be able to justify ongoing restrictions as we go into 2021. The damage to the economy and the social fabric they cause will be too high a price to pay.
The hospital admissions are already rising appreciably. According to the Government's daily statistics, so far in September there have been an average of 123 people per day hospitalised in England with Covid. This compares with a daily average of 53 in August. There hasn't been a corresponding increase in deaths (yet), but this may just be due to deaths lagging behind hospitalisations.

User avatar
Tommy
UKAR Staff
Posts: 5790
Joined: Mon 14 Mar 2011, 11:39 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »



It really is quite contemptible to lay the blame wholly at the public’s feet.

I appreciate there a few knobs in a thousand and I hope they are fined, like what happened in Newport, but by and large the public have endured lockdown, not seeing relatives, missing life events, no school, and potentially in environments that must be awful to spend 6 months cooped up in.

Not a shred of recognition, of even retrospect, that pushing everyone out to pubs and restaurants, offices and public transport, and schools might have had some part to play.

All the while, Dominic Cummings still has faced zero consequences for his actions in May.

I just seriously don’t know why people vote for a party that holds them in such scant regards.

Ken Shabby
Posts: 464
Joined: Mon 29 Sep 2008, 12:23 pm
Location: Romford, Essex
Contact:

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Ken Shabby »

Tommy wrote:
Sun 20 Sep 2020, 12:22 pm

I just seriously don’t know why people vote for a party that holds them in such scant regards.
Jeremy Corbin.
Ken

User avatar
psquiddy
Posts: 1169
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 10:33 am
Contact:

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by psquiddy »

Ken Shabby wrote:
Sun 20 Sep 2020, 7:19 pm
Tommy wrote:
Sun 20 Sep 2020, 12:22 pm

I just seriously don’t know why people vote for a party that holds them in such scant regards.
Jeremy Corbin.
Lol
Over 300 free things to do in London
http://www.toplondondaysout.co.uk

Paulish
Posts: 65
Joined: Wed 30 Nov 2011, 9:21 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Paulish »

Ken Shabby wrote:
Sun 20 Sep 2020, 7:19 pm
Tommy wrote:
Sun 20 Sep 2020, 12:22 pm

I just seriously don’t know why people vote for a party that holds them in such scant regards.
Jeremy Corbin.
So the choice was to go for the lesser of two evils. It now seems that we the British people made the wrong choice. (Yet again)

Ken Shabby
Posts: 464
Joined: Mon 29 Sep 2008, 12:23 pm
Location: Romford, Essex
Contact:

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Ken Shabby »

Paulish wrote:
Mon 21 Sep 2020, 6:54 am
[quote="Ken Shabby" post_id=901340 time=<a href="tel:1600629587">1600629587</a> user_id=1434]
[quote=Tommy post_id=901318 time=<a href="tel:1600604552">1600604552</a> user_id=17116]

I just seriously don’t know why people vote for a party that holds them in such scant regards.
Jeremy Corbin.
[/quote]

So the choice was to go for the lesser of two evils. It now seems that we the British people made the wrong choice. (Yet again)
[/quote]

Ooh, I don’t think so. Can you imagine Corbin trying to deal with COVID? We’d have had a lockdown but anyone could have chosen to opt out if they found it offensive or it hurt their feelings. We’d now be having a referendum on whether we should have a second lockdown or not. Diane Abbott would have been in charge of COVID stats and estimating a worse case scenario of 180 million dead (excluding Wales) but reducing to 326 if social distancing is increased from two metres to two yards.
Ken

User avatar
Tommy
UKAR Staff
Posts: 5790
Joined: Mon 14 Mar 2011, 11:39 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

Ken Shabby wrote:
Mon 21 Sep 2020, 7:18 am

Ooh, I don’t think so. Can you imagine Corbin trying to deal with COVID? We’d have had a lockdown but anyone could have chosen to opt out if they found it offensive or it hurt their feelings. We’d now be having a referendum on whether we should have a second lockdown or not. Diane Abbott would have been in charge of COVID stats and estimating a worse case scenario of 180 million dead (excluding Wales) but reducing to 326 if social distancing is increased from two metres to two yards.
*Corbyn would have been just as incompetent at handling COVID, I’m sure. He would have had different issues (and I guarantee that plenty of the Boris happy-clappers in the press would be howling with rage at Corbyn’s choices, which would probably be the same or similar to what they are currently trying to defend Johnson doing). His brother, for one, would have been a particularly problematic issue.

I don’t think the “you could opt out of lockdown” is based in evidence or analysis, it seems a bit of a lazy criticism to be honest. The Conservatives have clearly opted out of lockdown with Cummings going to Durham and refusing to hold him accountable.

Also, I do have to chuckle a little at your “Abbott would have been in charge of the stats” comment, but no word on Priti Patel’s “three hundred thousand and thirty four, nine hundred and seventy four thousand tests” blunder.

I don’t really like Abbott as a politician, and I disagree with her policies, but giving her grief over a gaffe from three and a half years ago is pretty tired now. As for using it as a comparison, as you do, that a Corbyn government would somehow be worse, is just daft when the actual current Home Secretary made a much more high-profile gaffe on numbers.

But in any event, Corbyn and his cabal of incompetent ditherers have gone, like a fart in the wind. They’re history, and already no one cares about them.

The criticism is of those in power. Had it been Corbyn, we’d be talking about his incompetence, I’m sure, but it’s not so we’re not. It’s Boris’ blundering that the spotlight is on.

And turning back to that Abbott example, if, as many Tory voters (including my parents) do, people love recalling that carcrash interview from 2017 and use it as some sort of justification for her, and Labour’s, incompetence, then why do you not treat the even higher profile numbers cock-up by Priti Patel in the same way?

I’m no fan of Labour at all, despite what some (ex) forumites like to accuse me of. Even Kier Starmer’s breath of fresh air competence, which is lovely, doesn’t persuade me to vote for the party. I’m a liberal-Tory at heart, and it saddens me to see what May and Johnson have done to rot a party I used to hold affinity with, and I can’t see how other Tory voters don’t feel the same way.

MiG_Eater
Posts: 1346
Joined: Sat 18 Nov 2017, 4:58 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by MiG_Eater »

Really decent piece in the BBC today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649

When the dust has settled, if it ever does, I hope Carl Heneghan is bought a couple of pints for being the voice of reason in all this.

User avatar
rdchawk
Posts: 3540
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 7:39 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rdchawk »

MiG_Eater wrote:
Mon 21 Sep 2020, 9:49 am
Really decent piece in the BBC today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649

When the dust has settled, if it ever does, I hope Carl Heneghan is bought a couple of pints for being the voice of reason in all this.
I saw that article this morning and thought it was the 1st sensible article for a long time, not spreading doom and gloom and scaremongering, just surprised it came from the BBC
Did you hear about the dyslexic pimp? He bought a ware house!
Proud member of the Silverstone Marshalling Team

Zoom
Posts: 382
Joined: Thu 11 Aug 2016, 11:18 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Zoom »

a very sobering broadcast just now from Whitty and Valance; very factual and no ministers / PMBJ present either. If anyone missed it here are the main points

the UK will face more than 200 Covid deaths per day by mid November if the virus continues to spread as now, Vallance said. He said:
At the moment we think the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days. If, and that’s quite a big if, but if that continues unabated and this grows doubling every seven days ... if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.

Vallance said the experience of what was happening in countries like Spain and France showed that increasing case numbers were leading to increasing deaths. (See 11.05am.) It was a simple message, he said:
As the disease spreads, as it spreads across age groups, we expect to see increasing hospitalisations and unfortunately, those increasing hospitalisations will lead to increasing deaths.

Whitty said the recent increase in hospital Covid admissions in England showed the potential for an exponential increase in deaths if the virus was allowed to carry on spreading as now. (See 11.05am.) He said:
If this carried on unabated - these numbers are relatively small, we’re talking about around 200 at the moment - but if this continued along the path that [Vallance] laid out, the number of deaths directly from Covid ... will continue to rise, potentially on an exponential curve, that means doubling and doubling and doubling again.


Whitty said the almost all parts of the country were at risks from rising rates of coronavirus. He said:
What we’ve seen is a progression where, after the remarkable efforts which got the rates right down across the country, first we saw very small outbreaks, maybe associated with a workplace or another environment, then we’ve seen more localised outbreaks which have got larger over time, particularity in the cities.


Whitty hinted that people might be encouraged again to work from home.
Describing what could be done to combat the virus (see 11.19am), he said:
We have to break unnecessary links between households because that is the way in which this virus is transmitted. And this means reducing social contacts whether they are at work, and this is where we have enormous gratitude to all the businesses for example who have worked so hard to make their environments Covid-secure to reduce the risk, and also in social environments.

We all know we cannot do this without some significant downsides.

This is a balance of risk between if we don’t do enough the virus will take off - and at the moment that is the path we’re clearly on - and if we do not change course we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem.

User avatar
pbeardmore
Posts: 4402
Joined: Thu 06 Nov 2008, 9:16 am

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by pbeardmore »

Three weeks ago, my favourite MP, Grant Shapps was doing the media tour trying to get people back in to work. :rolling_eyes:
“The best computer is a man, and it’s the only one that can be mass-produced by unskilled labour.”

User avatar
CJS
Posts: 7597
Joined: Thu 15 Jul 2010, 3:30 pm
Location: Hogwarts

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

rdchawk wrote:
Mon 21 Sep 2020, 10:41 am
MiG_Eater wrote:
Mon 21 Sep 2020, 9:49 am
Really decent piece in the BBC today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649

When the dust has settled, if it ever does, I hope Carl Heneghan is bought a couple of pints for being the voice of reason in all this.
I saw that article this morning and thought it was the 1st sensible article for a long time, not spreading doom and gloom and scaremongering, just surprised it came from the BBC
Why? There's just as much that isn't great from all the other major news outlets, and plenty that is far, far worse. For all that the BBC is criticised for - some of it valid - their journalism is at least as good as anyone else's, and often significantly better.

Back to virus - some interesting points from this morning's speech by Whitty and Vallance, of which of course the govt will cherry pick the bits that suit their agenda and ignore those that don't.

Lifted directly off the BBC website;

"The key points:

The virus is now increasing across the majority of the country. "So this is not someone else's problem, this is all of our problem," said Prof Whitty
It's a "six-month problem that we have to deal with collectively," said Prof Whitty. He said the seasons are against us with autumn and winter benefiting viruses like Covid
The virus is not milder now than in April. Prof Whitty says some people have been saying this - but there's no evidence for it
The key stats:

If the infection continues at its current rate, without any action being taken, then by mid-October there could be 50,000 cases a day. That would lead to more than 200 deaths a day by mid November
Around 70,000 people in the UK are estimated to currently have the disease - and about 6,000 per day are catching it. That's an estimate based on a study from the Office for National Statistics
Fewer than 8% of people have got antibodies to the virus, which suggest they've had it already
What about lockdown measures?

Prof Whitty acknowledged it's a "difficult balance" for ministers. If we do too little in terms of lockdown rules, the virus will go out of control, but if we go too far the other way we can damage the economy which will have its own long-term health effects, he said
He said one key way to control the virus is to "break unnecessary links between households because that is the way this virus is transmitted". But he said we have to do it "in the least damaging way", adding: "If we don't do enough the virus will take off, and that is the path we are clearly on, and if we don't change course, then we're going to find ourselves in a very difficult problem."
With just the slightest bit of finesse, I might have made a little less mess.

User avatar
starbuck
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue 28 Mar 2017, 9:35 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by starbuck »

CJS wrote:
Mon 21 Sep 2020, 11:22 am
Back to virus - some interesting points from this morning's speech by Whitty and Vallance, of which of course the govt will cherry pick the bits that suit their agenda and ignore those that don't.
Interested to know what you think the government's agenda is? And which government you are referring to?

FGR2
Posts: 2687
Joined: Mon 15 Sep 2008, 11:12 am

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FGR2 »

I think the government are panicking and realising that people are not going to take any notice of them anymore, so the reason they wheeled out the medical advisors to ramp up some fear ahead of an announcement.

I can’t help feeling that the reopening of a Pubs, Eat out schemes, a return to normal vibe from government mixed messaging and inadequate track and trace has lead us to this point.

Ken Shabby
Posts: 464
Joined: Mon 29 Sep 2008, 12:23 pm
Location: Romford, Essex
Contact:

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Ken Shabby »

Whitty said very little that anyone with the ability to look up the meaning of “exponential” in a dictionary couldn’t have said. The only words of any substance related to the way the disease was spreading, which he is convinced is between households and presumably nothing to do with people going back to work, going back to school, playing organised sport or eating out in restaurants again.

Which neatly gets the Government off-the-hook for urging us to do those things in recent weeks.

And if the 50,000 infections a day by mid-October isn’t a prediction, what is it then? Because whatever it is, the Government will be using it to justify whatever measures they announce tomorrow.
Last edited by Ken Shabby on Mon 21 Sep 2020, 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ken

Zoom
Posts: 382
Joined: Thu 11 Aug 2016, 11:18 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Zoom »

FGR2 wrote:
Mon 21 Sep 2020, 1:02 pm
I think the government are panicking and realising that people are not going to take any notice of them anymore, so the reason they wheeled out the medical advisors to ramp up some fear ahead of an announcement.
And it appears that's exactly what's going to happen, PMBJ is making a statement on the HoC tomorrow (apparently he had his knuckles rapped for disclosing the Rule of 6 on TV before informing the house)

My money's on hitting us with a stick again no fault of the government eg

All mixing between households indoors banned not just 6 (support bubbles excepted)
Outside gatherings over 6 banned
Pubs to shut early and table only service

of course if we had effective test and trace we could be more precise on which measures were required.

User avatar
rdchawk
Posts: 3540
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 7:39 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rdchawk »

Probably to shy away from anything to do with getting money from the Russians!
Did you hear about the dyslexic pimp? He bought a ware house!
Proud member of the Silverstone Marshalling Team

User avatar
iainpeden
Posts: 2788
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 7:01 pm
Location: Great Oakley, Corby, Northants

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

At the same time as pubs are told to have earlier closing times I hope that all off sales of alcohol are ceased to ensure household parties don’t replace the pub crawls which are one of the problems in the spread. This at the time of the announcement so as not to give time to stock up.
(Mark Twain: There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics)

Zoom
Posts: 382
Joined: Thu 11 Aug 2016, 11:18 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Zoom »

apparently Scotland are planning something pretty drastic
Last edited by Zoom on Mon 21 Sep 2020, 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

RAF4EVER
Posts: 676
Joined: Tue 27 Mar 2012, 6:49 pm
Location: Hoofddorp The Netherlands

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by RAF4EVER »

Is it a good idea,publicly displaying SENSITIVE official documents?

User avatar
rdchawk
Posts: 3540
Joined: Sun 31 Aug 2008, 7:39 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rdchawk »

How can grandparents now be exempt from any local lock-downs for childcare reasons when they had to be much stronger quarantined when it all kicked off and was advised we couldn't use grandparents for childcare??

This is why a lot more people now are disbelieving these new rules and regs when they contradict previous ones and why people are not taking any notice of them anymore.
Did you hear about the dyslexic pimp? He bought a ware house!
Proud member of the Silverstone Marshalling Team

User avatar
starbuck
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue 28 Mar 2017, 9:35 pm

Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by starbuck »

rdchawk wrote:
Mon 21 Sep 2020, 3:46 pm
How can grandparents now be exempt from any local lock-downs for childcare reasons when they had to be much stronger quarantined when it all kicked off and was advised we couldn't use grandparents for childcare??

This is why a lot more people now are disbelieving these new rules and regs when they contradict previous ones and why people are not taking any notice of them anymore.
Because we know a lot more about this now than we did in March, hospitals are better equipped to deal with cases etc etc. This is a constantly evolving situation so it's pointless comparing. Having said that they are still more vulnerable than most so if they can be protected then they should.

Post Reply