COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

I can see this going on for years - we will be in lock down through out Oct - Apr each year then unlocked with restrictions, like turning on a light switch.

What exact percentage of the countries population have died because of contracting covid19 excluding those who had other health conditions?

FarnboroJohn
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FarnboroJohn »

FGR2 wrote:
Wed 28 Oct 2020, 9:32 pm
They are saying transmission occurs between households, but how are they getting it to start with. I haven’t eaten out, or been to a pub since January. I haven’t been on holiday or seen any friends or work colleagues since March. I don’t know anyone going out socialising or to pubs now (like they were in February/March). Most are working from home. Where are people catching it from in the wider community now? The only thing I keep hearing (from work colleagues) is certain years being off school due to a kid testing positive in a particular year. The other was a rumour of an outbreak in a local hospital. I don’t know how productive a full lockdown will be, as people are so fed up and depressed with it all now, they are not going to follow the rules with no end in sight for much longer.
Yes but that's just you.

Did you notice Ken Shabby has been missing out on seeing his friends because he didn't understand the tier system? His friends did and have been seeing each other (and I rather gathered that ken intends to now join them). I've been back in the office since July (when my work laptop was given to someone more important). I go to the pub once a week with friends within the rules. I go birding with friends within the rules. I would guess that more people than not, are using the full extent of what they are allowed to do.

I have no objective evidence on rule-breaking but I would speculate that quite a lot of people will countenance a quick transgression for their own convenience, especially if they think it can't be traced back to them. Speaking of which, the Government doesn't seem to have made any recent self-congratulatory announcements on increased take-up of the T&T apps.....

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CJS
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

IATthenRIAT wrote:
Wed 28 Oct 2020, 10:14 pm
I can see this going on for years - we will be in lock down through out Oct - Apr each year then unlocked with restrictions, like turning on a light switch.

What exact percentage of the countries population have died because of contracting covid19 excluding those who had other health conditions?
Bit of an irrelevant question.
With just the slightest bit of finesse, I might have made a little less mess.

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iainpeden
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

CJS wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 8:03 am
IATthenRIAT wrote:
Wed 28 Oct 2020, 10:14 pm
What exact percentage of the countries population have died because of contracting covid19 excluding those who had other health conditions?
Bit of an irrelevant question.
I disagree there, Chris. If information was available, and I'm sure it is to some somewhere, it might throw further light on the danger of this virus. For example, if it came out that 25% of deaths occur with no other morbidities that's very different to a 0.25% rate.

A question SWIMBO and I have been wondering recently with the latest surge is, while it's fairly clear where the infections are happening, what are the regional stats regarding age, ethnic background and existing illness for hospitalisation and death, i.e. are the profiles similar of different to the first surge? They are probably in those heat maps but again we need to see that info on at least a weekly basis not just when BJ is getting bored with Brexit.

Yesterday evening (Radio 4 PM {which is worth the licence fee alone}) they interviewed a French former health minister who summed up the actions taken by various governments to lockdown and prevent spread - essentially he said everybody is looking for a solution and there isn't one.
(Mark Twain: There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics)

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phreakf4
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by phreakf4 »

CJS wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 8:03 am
IATthenRIAT wrote:
Wed 28 Oct 2020, 10:14 pm
I can see this going on for years - we will be in lock down through out Oct - Apr each year then unlocked with restrictions, like turning on a light switch.

What exact percentage of the countries population have died because of contracting covid19 excluding those who had other health conditions?
Bit of an irrelevant question.
It is indeed.

Those with "underlying medical conditions" are just as dead as those without. In many cases those who died "with Covid" rather than "because of covid" had reason to expect several more years of life since the "underlying medical conditions" were, in many cases, not in themselves fatal. I have lived for about 15 years since being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. I point out that I am not and have never been overweight, don't drink alcohol, don't smoke and have always eaten sensibly and spent my entire working life in a manual trade so get plenty of physical excercise, before the accusations of "self-imposed illness due to lifestyle" start flying, and have no reason to believe that if I can avoid Covid I will probably live for several more yet.

It has also been stated several times that many people have "underlying medical conditions" of which both they and their GP are unaware.
nothing is confirmed at a show until its u/c hits the tarmac or it is running in for its display.....

Zoom
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Zoom »

So France and Germany have gone back to their original lockdown measures with the exception of schools remaining open;

Macron said the French lockdown would remain in place for a month after which if new cases had not gone to about 5000 / day they would probably continue through Christmas, so no pressure,,,

How long before Cummings's Boris's pet scientists come up with a similar plan?

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CJS
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

The government's scientists already have, weeks ago. It's just that the government don't listen to its own scientists, so they've cleverly ignored them.

Iain, you're right I know, however I think the op was after a nice small number to help him make his point. In that case, his question was irrelevant.
With just the slightest bit of finesse, I might have made a little less mess.

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ted633
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by ted633 »

The point is, do lockdowns work? Was the drop in cases during the last lockdown due to the lockdown (bear in mind it took 6 weeks for cases to start to drop), or was it due to summer appearing and Covid levels naturally falling as it's a seasonal virus, or a mixture. Look at when cases started to sky rocket again, it was when the weather changed for the worse (shorter days, cold evenings).
People still mix during a lockdown (work, school, shops etc). Only a 'chinese' style, incredibly harsh lockdown will completely stop spread, and that (thankfully) is not acceptable in this country.

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AndyXH558
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by AndyXH558 »

What gets me are the political commentators whe are saying, get back to work, dont lock down.. blah blah.. yeah yeah, 40 years as a journo suddenly makes you a virologist doesnt it?

My step daughter has it at the moment, shes not too good but in isolation.. But heres the problem, Her son and daughter tay with their father during the week. hes not been tested nor have the kids.

This is the stupidity we have.

My wifes place has had several cases, yet they are scared to tell anyone because they will get disciplined or sacked for having time off sick. So covid goes unchecked because people cant afford to take the time off or as above scared to say anything.
Start every day with a smile!

Teaboy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

ted633 wrote:
Wed 28 Oct 2020, 12:29 pm
But the other 'worst case scenario' was 50,000 cases by mid-October. Were at the end of October and only about half that. You'd of thought both cases and deaths would go hand in hand (prediction wise), but doesn't seem to be the situation at the moment.
Evidently, there's missing / misinterpreted data in either or both models. Hopefully as we learn more, these predictions can get more accurate.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962

ICL suggest 100,000 a day. This would be more inline with the fact that deaths have reached the predicted amount several weeks early, suggesting we surpassed the 50,000 cases predicted some weeks ago as well.

IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

Question, have they actually Isolated the virus in the labs so they can do tests on it, I thought a virus has to be alive inside a live host not inside a petri dish?

vandal
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by vandal »

ted633 wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 11:02 am
The point is, do lockdowns work? Was the drop in cases during the last lockdown due to the lockdown (bear in mind it took 6 weeks for cases to start to drop), or was it due to summer appearing and Covid levels naturally falling as it's a seasonal virus, or a mixture. Look at when cases started to sky rocket again, it was when the weather changed for the worse (shorter days, cold evenings).
People still mix during a lockdown (work, school, shops etc). Only a 'chinese' style, incredibly harsh lockdown will completely stop spread, and that (thankfully) is not acceptable in this country.
You might be onto something regarding the warm weather.

I was just reading that a recent study has found 8 in 10 of hospitalised patients with Covid 19 were Vitamin D deficient.

https://www.aol.co.uk/living/2020/10/28 ... 19-battle/

IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

vandal wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 6:18 pm
ted633 wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 11:02 am
The point is, do lockdowns work? Was the drop in cases during the last lockdown due to the lockdown (bear in mind it took 6 weeks for cases to start to drop), or was it due to summer appearing and Covid levels naturally falling as it's a seasonal virus, or a mixture. Look at when cases started to sky rocket again, it was when the weather changed for the worse (shorter days, cold evenings).
People still mix during a lockdown (work, school, shops etc). Only a 'chinese' style, incredibly harsh lockdown will completely stop spread, and that (thankfully) is not acceptable in this country.
You might be onto something regarding the warm weather.

I was just reading that a recent study has found 8 in 10 of hospitalised patients with Covid 19 were Vitamin D deficient.

https://www.aol.co.uk/living/2020/10/28 ... 19-battle/
Exactly, so much science in common sense Vit C,D and zinc are So important in defending a persons Immunity.

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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

IATthenRIAT wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 4:59 pm
Question, have they actually Isolated the virus in the labs so they can do tests on it, I thought a virus has to be alive inside a live host not inside a petri dish?
As much as it stimulates discussion, perhaps a bit of Googling might assist you better than a forum that, unless I am much mistaken, is very much lacking in epidemiological expertise.

vandal
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by vandal »

Vitamin D is associated with sunlight - that's what I was referencing.

Maybe being out in the sun (in your garden & not a crammed beach) played a part after all?

IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

Tommy wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 6:37 pm
IATthenRIAT wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 4:59 pm
Question, have they actually Isolated the virus in the labs so they can do tests on it, I thought a virus has to be alive inside a live host not inside a petri dish?
As much as it stimulates discussion, perhaps a bit of Googling might assist you better than a forum that, unless I am much mistaken, is very much lacking in epidemiological expertise.
I did "Google It" but there is conflicting info as usual, from my memory many years ago in biology I thought we learned that all virus's need a "Live" host to stay stable while they can be tested, as without a host a virus soon dies off in X amount of time, so a host even say a lab rat would need to have the covid virus insiede it to keep it stable so it could be tested.
I think I remember correctly?

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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

One supposes that the science will tell. It could be a number of impacts. Longer, warmer weather means people are more likely to relax outdoors, whereas as things get colder and wetter, people will congregate indoors in less well-ventilated spaces.

However, the science so far suggests that this second wave is/was principally driven by sending all the kids back to school and students to universities.

IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

Tommy wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 6:52 pm
One supposes that the science will tell. It could be a number of impacts. Longer, warmer weather means people are more likely to relax outdoors, whereas as things get colder and wetter, people will congregate indoors in less well-ventilated spaces.

However, the science so far suggests that this second wave is/was principally driven by sending all the kids back to school and students to universities.
Another thing to consider when we are all buttoned up indoors - windows/doors closed heating put on, we are all prone to things that lower our immune system and causes allergies and colds etc - this makes us more susceptible to virus's (covid no exception).

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iainpeden
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

vandal wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 6:41 pm
Vitamin D is associated with sunlight - that's what I was referencing.

Maybe being out in the sun (in your garden & not a crammed beach) played a part after all?
Right at the start of the pandemic the role of vitamin D in fighting the infection was being mooted. It's a fact that people of African/Asian heritage are less able to make natural vitamin D from sunlight due to the levels of skin pigment. Which is also the reason many people from those heritages suffered from Ricketts when they came to northern climes.
(Mark Twain: There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics)

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iainpeden
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

IATthenRIAT wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 7:00 pm
Tommy wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 6:52 pm
One supposes that the science will tell. It could be a number of impacts. Longer, warmer weather means people are more likely to relax outdoors, whereas as things get colder and wetter, people will congregate indoors in less well-ventilated spaces.

However, the science so far suggests that this second wave is/was principally driven by sending all the kids back to school and students to universities.
Another thing to consider when we are all buttoned up indoors - windows/doors closed heating put on, we are all prone to things that lower our immune system and causes allergies and colds etc - this makes us more susceptible to virus's (covid no exception).
Yes but as long as you and Mrs ItR isolate/shield before you get the virus you'll be fine as a significant cause of spread is within the household.
(Mark Twain: There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics)

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iainpeden
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

Tommy wrote:
Thu 29 Oct 2020, 6:37 pm
As much as it stimulates discussion, perhaps a bit of Googling might assist you better than a forum that, unless I am much mistaken, is very much lacking in epidemiological expertise.
Come on Tommy you should know by now that we are all experts on absolutely everything! :wink:
(Mark Twain: There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics)

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Flare Path »

The Times newspaper are tonight reporting that Boris could announce a new National Lockdown on Monday, coming in to force 2 days later.

It's also on the front of their headline for tomorrow.

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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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vandal
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by vandal »

Tommy wrote:
Fri 30 Oct 2020, 10:39 pm
If nothing else, the Fire Services of the UK may well have their quietest November 5th in history if the lockdown goes ahead this Wednesday.

FGR2
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FGR2 »

The question is what will they achieve in that 4 weeks?

When the question was put to Johnson if we can afford a national lockdown a month ago he replied “Can we afford it? I, I very much doubt the financial consequences would be anything but disasterous”

If this is true that a lockdown is imminent, with furlough ending, this is going to kill the economy, along with people’s jobs and mental health. The effects of this are going to last decades.

If this happens it will be Johnson’s biggest failure, as he will effectively be admitting Starmer was right, and has wasted two weeks not implementing a lockdown. The same accusation that was levelled at him in the beginning of the pandemic.

I can see further panic lockdowns throughout next year, social distancing, recording your details, restricting who you can see, I pretty much think next year will be a write off as well. Looking further ahead beyond 2021, the one thing I am quite certain of, is that we are never going to be the same country as we were in 2019.

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