COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

roger wrote:
Sat 14 Nov 2020, 5:22 pm
verreli wrote:
Sat 14 Nov 2020, 4:02 pm
roger wrote:
Sat 14 Nov 2020, 3:14 pm
Depends what you mean by "the test". There are two parts (1) getting the swab to pick up virus particles from up your nose, and (2) getting the swab processed in the lab by PCR. As an analytical chemist, I think of the first part as sampling and the second part as testing: I think most lab people would say the same. However, colloquially, we refer to the sum of both as being "getting a test".

The lab part will almost certainly include "quality control" (QC) samples - synthetic example samples made in the lab which either have had virus added to check they record a positive result, or which have not had it added to check they show a negative result. If the QC samples give the expected results, the lab test part of the process is proven to be valid.

I can't see how they can validate the collection of the sample by swabbing in the same way.
In my uneducated mind the test is the end to end process consisting of sampling and analysis. My thoughts were balanced more on the sampling stage. If I'm sticking a huge Q-tip up my nose and rotating (5 turns in each nose), how do they know it's gone far enough or that I've rotated enough? Is it the amount of pick-up? This is the bit I'm sceptical about.

As for accuracy, I was told our test was 90% accurate and I've no reason to doubt that. The test has been picked for accuracy rather than price.
I think you have hit the nail on the head with one of the two major problems with all Covid testing the world over, resulting in an under-reporting of the number of positive cases. My daughter and son-in-law were both tested some months ago (small outbreak where he works) and described the swabbing as having their brains stabbed - it really hurt. It requires the Q-tip to be pushed up until it stops, and then some more. Trained staff know how much resistance to pushing the swab in is the right amount, most of us swabbing ourselves stop as soon as it tickles or becomes slightly uncomfortable and we are probably not getting in far enough. Thankfully, newer procedures involving saliva testing are coming into use.

The other big problem is one of timing. The virus needs to incubate within us for a number of days (varies person to person, but 3 - 10 days seems to cover most people) before there are enough live virus particles living in the nasal cavity to give a big enough pick-up on the swab to be detected. Assuming you are infected, test too early and you will get a negative result. Wait a few more days, and you then switch to testing positive.

This virus is a wonderful and fiendishly complicated example of what nature can conjure up!
All virus's are mate - if they were simple we would have found a cure for flu by now.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Mooshie1956 »

Have they stopped the tonsil tickle now and just inserting that thing up your nose?.
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IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

Found this on the BMJ (British Medical Journal) dont't know what it means though -
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4425

roger
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by roger »

Thanks - good find. Not sure I agree with his conclusions though, as we live in the real world rather than the ideal world, hence:

a) if the Government was looking for an expert advisor on say, making ice-cream, I can't see they could look anywhere except for a person who has spent a big chunk of their career in the ice-cream industry developing the expertise they seek, and hence there will always be a conflict of interest, and

b) the Government can't slavishly follow the science because there are other competing interests to be taken into account, in this case the economy. How many times have we heard the plea "don't shut down my industry" on the news over the last 9 months, almost as if some captains of industry don't care if some of their customers die?

It does make me wonder what kind of nut-job would want to be a politician though.

IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

roger wrote:
Sat 14 Nov 2020, 9:54 pm
Thanks - good find. Not sure I agree with his conclusions though, as we live in the real world rather than the ideal world, hence:

a) if the Government was looking for an expert advisor on say, making ice-cream, I can't see they could look anywhere except for a person who has spent a big chunk of their career in the ice-cream industry developing the expertise they seek, and hence there will always be a conflict of interest, and

b) the Government can't slavishly follow the science because there are other competing interests to be taken into account, in this case the economy. How many times have we heard the plea "don't shut down my industry" on the news over the last 9 months, almost as if some captains of industry don't care if some of their customers die?

It does make me wonder what kind of nut-job would want to be a politician though.
But doesn't the buck stop with them - I thought they were the collective of all things medical who have been at the front end through all this.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Zoom »

The news about a second mRNA vaccine showing good results is excellent well done science over politics again!!!!

IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

Zoom wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 7:23 pm
The news about a second mRNA vaccine showing good results is excellent well done science over politics again!!!!
I still can't get my head round how quickly they have found - not One but Two Vaccines that they are so certain will work on corona, its amazing as this virus is what a Year old yet look at the common Flu virus - goodenes knows hold many years it has been around for and with it being considered less deadly than corona - yet despite all the scientists and countless Millions if not Billions spent on it - no cure and not even a vaccine that has the same sucess rate as the Two new ones for corona.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

IATthenRIAT wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 10:40 pm
Zoom wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 7:23 pm
The news about a second mRNA vaccine showing good results is excellent well done science over politics again!!!!
I still can't get my head round how quickly they have found - not One but Two Vaccines that they are so certain will work on corona, its amazing as this virus is what a Year old yet look at the common Flu virus - goodenes knows hold many years it has been around for and with it being considered less deadly than corona - yet despite all the scientists and countless Millions if not Billions spent on it - no cure and not even a vaccine that has the same sucess rate as the Two new ones for corona.
wait til it mutates into a form that mutates faster?

IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

Teaboy wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 11:42 pm
IATthenRIAT wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 10:40 pm
Zoom wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 7:23 pm
The news about a second mRNA vaccine showing good results is excellent well done science over politics again!!!!
I still can't get my head round how quickly they have found - not One but Two Vaccines that they are so certain will work on corona, its amazing as this virus is what a Year old yet look at the common Flu virus - goodenes knows hold many years it has been around for and with it being considered less deadly than corona - yet despite all the scientists and countless Millions if not Billions spent on it - no cure and not even a vaccine that has the same sucess rate as the Two new ones for corona.
wait til it mutates into a form that mutates faster?
How do you know?

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rockfordstone »

IATthenRIAT wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 10:40 pm
Zoom wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 7:23 pm
The news about a second mRNA vaccine showing good results is excellent well done science over politics again!!!!
I still can't get my head round how quickly they have found - not One but Two Vaccines that they are so certain will work on corona, its amazing as this virus is what a Year old yet look at the common Flu virus - goodenes knows hold many years it has been around for and with it being considered less deadly than corona - yet despite all the scientists and countless Millions if not Billions spent on it - no cure and not even a vaccine that has the same sucess rate as the Two new ones for corona.
but we do have a flu vaccine. people have it every year, flu mutates and you get different strains and as such the vaccine develops every year or so.

the difference to remember here is this a global pandemic and everyone is working on it to achieve a result which likely means some sharing of information. china reportedly gave us the genetic makeup right at the beginning, so they worked on that from the get-go.

it's probably worth noting that animals have suffered various corona viruses for years, this was just the first instance of one jumping species so it's not outside the realms of possibility that they were already being looked at.

when the whole world comes together to achieve stuff then stuff can happen.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

rockfordstone wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 11:54 pm
IATthenRIAT wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 10:40 pm
Zoom wrote:
Mon 16 Nov 2020, 7:23 pm
The news about a second mRNA vaccine showing good results is excellent well done science over politics again!!!!
I still can't get my head round how quickly they have found - not One but Two Vaccines that they are so certain will work on corona, its amazing as this virus is what a Year old yet look at the common Flu virus - goodenes knows hold many years it has been around for and with it being considered less deadly than corona - yet despite all the scientists and countless Millions if not Billions spent on it - no cure and not even a vaccine that has the same sucess rate as the Two new ones for corona.
but we do have a flu vaccine. people have it every year, flu mutates and you get different strains and as such the vaccine develops every year or so.

the difference to remember here is this a global pandemic and everyone is working on it to achieve a result which likely means some sharing of information. china reportedly gave us the genetic makeup right at the beginning, so they worked on that from the get-go.

it's probably worth noting that animals have suffered various corona viruses for years, this was just the first instance of one jumping species so it's not outside the realms of possibility that they were already being looked at.

when the whole world comes together to achieve stuff then stuff can happen.

Shame the World can't do like Full Reset to sort it all out, almost like a New World where these kind of virus's didn't happen as much, I know they keep creating new vaccines for Flu but even that has only had something like a 50% sucess rate (even our GP said that).
But I guess us humans will Always be battling virus's its part of life I guess - supposed thats why our bodies create anti-bodies and our Immune systems come into use - clever things us humans, shame there not much order in the world though.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Zoom »

Influenza is not a coronavirus. There have been 3 other coronaviruses to affect humans (SARS and MERS were isolated and contained, the common cold is still with us)

I'm presuming the various human strains of Covid-19 are all susceptible to the new vaccines (it has something to do with a spike protein which is presumably the same in all). The mink mutation is more of a worry which is why they are eradicating it.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

So:

"England's regional Covid tier system may need to be "strengthened" in order to "get us through the winter months", says Dr Susan Hopkins, a senior health official.

A government minister, Robert Jenrick, adds that the system is being "reviewed" - to see what worked and what didn't..."

In other words - we're softening you up before we introduce tighter restrictions post Dec 2nd that end up with most of the country in exactly the same state that you're in now. Happy Christmas, love Boris

Or am I just getting to cynical for my own good?
With just the slightest bit of finesse, I might have made a little less mess.

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rockfordstone
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rockfordstone »

CJS wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 11:48 am
So:

"England's regional Covid tier system may need to be "strengthened" in order to "get us through the winter months", says Dr Susan Hopkins, a senior health official.

A government minister, Robert Jenrick, adds that the system is being "reviewed" - to see what worked and what didn't..."

In other words - we're softening you up before we introduce tighter restrictions post Dec 2nd that end up with most of the country in exactly the same state that you're in now. Happy Christmas, love Boris

Or am I just getting to cynical for my own good?
i don't think so. but then there is also an element in that the tier system was broken from the start, the fact most areas started in tier 2 and were in tier 3 within days says that.

i believe there was a review suggesting that tier 1 was uneffective... i don't remember anywhere being in tier 1 when they brought it in.

it was very much a case of shutting the stable door so late after the horse bolted that there was little evidence a horse as even there. in order for a tier system to work there has to be tight restrictions in some of them, not some wishy-washy version where local councils could decide to add or remove bits.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

rockfordstone wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 12:11 pm
CJS wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 11:48 am
So:

"England's regional Covid tier system may need to be "strengthened" in order to "get us through the winter months", says Dr Susan Hopkins, a senior health official.

A government minister, Robert Jenrick, adds that the system is being "reviewed" - to see what worked and what didn't..."

In other words - we're softening you up before we introduce tighter restrictions post Dec 2nd that end up with most of the country in exactly the same state that you're in now. Happy Christmas, love Boris

Or am I just getting to cynical for my own good?
i don't think so. but then there is also an element in that the tier system was broken from the start, the fact most areas started in tier 2 and were in tier 3 within days says that.

i believe there was a review suggesting that tier 1 was uneffective... i don't remember anywhere being in tier 1 when they brought it in.

it was very much a case of shutting the stable door so late after the horse bolted that there was little evidence a horse as even there. in order for a tier system to work there has to be tight restrictions in some of them, not some wishy-washy version where local councils could decide to add or remove bits.
I thought everywhere was tier 1 - wasn't that the default position?
With just the slightest bit of finesse, I might have made a little less mess.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rockfordstone »

CJS wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 12:13 pm
rockfordstone wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 12:11 pm
CJS wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 11:48 am
So:

"England's regional Covid tier system may need to be "strengthened" in order to "get us through the winter months", says Dr Susan Hopkins, a senior health official.

A government minister, Robert Jenrick, adds that the system is being "reviewed" - to see what worked and what didn't..."

In other words - we're softening you up before we introduce tighter restrictions post Dec 2nd that end up with most of the country in exactly the same state that you're in now. Happy Christmas, love Boris

Or am I just getting to cynical for my own good?
i don't think so. but then there is also an element in that the tier system was broken from the start, the fact most areas started in tier 2 and were in tier 3 within days says that.

i believe there was a review suggesting that tier 1 was uneffective... i don't remember anywhere being in tier 1 when they brought it in.

it was very much a case of shutting the stable door so late after the horse bolted that there was little evidence a horse as even there. in order for a tier system to work there has to be tight restrictions in some of them, not some wishy-washy version where local councils could decide to add or remove bits.
I thought everywhere was tier 1 - wasn't that the default position?
wasn't it tier 1 - medium, 2 - high, 3 - very high. i thought at the time it came in most areas were in "high", barring some really rural areas in norfolk etc

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by pbeardmore »

There is clearly some manouvering/panic going on. I'm guessing they are seeing the first data since the national lockdown and realising it's not been as effective as hoped. Rather than just carry on with the lockdown as we know it , they are going to "re brand" as they keep doing thoughout the whole process.

A team of spin docters will be coming up with the new name following the "success" of the "moonshot" track and trace.
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rockfordstone »

pbeardmore wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 1:00 pm
There is clearly some manouvering/panic going on. I'm guessing they are seeing the first data since the national lockdown and realising it's not been as effective as hoped. Rather than just carry on with the lockdown as we know it , they are going to "re brand" as they keep doing thoughout the whole process.

A team of spin docters will be coming up with the new name following the "success" of the "moonshot" track and trace.
i suspect they are also trying to find a way to soften us up for not being able to see families at Christmas. they will find a way of getting the public to blame each other for it, rather than the government

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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rockfordstone wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 12:55 pm

wasn't it tier 1 - medium, 2 - high, 3 - very high. i thought at the time it came in most areas were in "high", barring some really rural areas in norfolk etc
No. The majority of England was in Tier 1 at the beginning, including the entire southwest, southeast, East Anglia and parts of the Midlands. Some of the northeast may have been initially too, but I can't remember, it all changed too quickly!

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FGR2 »

ted633 wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 2:16 pm
rockfordstone wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 12:55 pm

wasn't it tier 1 - medium, 2 - high, 3 - very high. i thought at the time it came in most areas were in "high", barring some really rural areas in norfolk etc
No. The majority of England was in Tier 1 at the beginning, including the entire southwest, southeast, East Anglia and parts of the Midlands. Some of the northeast may have been initially too, but I can't remember, it all changed too quickly!
Essex was in Tier 1 but the council asked the government to be put in Tier 2. I think London and somewhere in Surrey went into Tier 2 as well. Everywhere else in the south was Tier 1 initially.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

rockfordstone wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 2:12 pm
pbeardmore wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 1:00 pm
There is clearly some manouvering/panic going on. I'm guessing they are seeing the first data since the national lockdown and realising it's not been as effective as hoped. Rather than just carry on with the lockdown as we know it , they are going to "re brand" as they keep doing thoughout the whole process.

A team of spin docters will be coming up with the new name following the "success" of the "moonshot" track and trace.
i suspect they are also trying to find a way to soften us up for not being able to see families at Christmas. they will find a way of getting the public to blame each other for it, rather than the government
Governments only have a certain amount of power - not really thier fault - bit like blaming the children in schools when its the teachers fault (just a comparison - not actualy having a go at teachers)

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

Mouthwash now showing good signs of cutting down corona in saliva - cool I use it everyday.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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IATthenRIAT wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 5:01 pm
Mouthwash now showing good signs of cutting down corona in saliva - cool I use it everyday.
It was one mouthwash that was tested and named as Dentyl. Surprise, surprise...
Reserachers say Venture Life Group, which makes Dentyl, provided information to the study but did not fund it.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-mou ... s-12134289

Smacks of an advert.
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Zoom »

I think in terms of Christmas parties / meals pubs meeting other households indoors and maybe even church services Christmas is almost certainly going to be cancelled, look how long it took to bring the 1st wave under control in the middle of a hot summer and where we are now it's crazy to do otherwise

We are very close to nailing this b******d virus let's not blow it for a religious holiday, Diwali has already gone the same way

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

IATthenRIAT wrote:
Tue 17 Nov 2020, 4:32 pm
Governments only have a certain amount of power - not really thier fault - bit like blaming the children in schools when its the teachers fault (just a comparison - not actualy having a go at teachers)
[/quote]

Good - because it's invariably the parents fault!
(Beat you to it Chris!)
Mind you, I do blame your teachers for never making you write out "their, there, they're" at least 1000 times nightly to get the spelling right!
(Mark Twain: There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics)

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