COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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NAM Updater
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by NAM Updater »

You may well be right FGR2 & Vallance was certainly much more measured in his overall assessment of the developing situation.

Some more details on the developing situation in this new link c/w a few more caveats: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627
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IATthenRIAT
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by IATthenRIAT »

I dont suppose it helps the situation with peoples general health potentially being lower due to being stuck at home, peoples mental health has no dount been taking a hit, this in itself can lower peoples immunity to colds - flu's and virus's also most houses can create mild allerges due to dust, thats why things are a lot better for us in the summer - out side more, windows and doors open and no heating spreading dust particles around the house and inhaled by us.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

IATthenRIAT wrote:
Fri 22 Jan 2021, 11:25 pm
I dont suppose it helps the situation with peoples general health potentially being lower due to being stuck at home, peoples mental health has no dount been taking a hit, this in itself can lower peoples immunity to colds - flu's and virus's also most houses can create mild allerges due to dust, thats why things are a lot better for us in the summer - out side more, windows and doors open and no heating spreading dust particles around the house and inhaled by us.
The first people who settled in this god forsaken land have a lot to answer for.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

I have a growing unease about the strategy to postpone second doses.

I get the reason why, but the scientific data doesn’t seems to support it. It might not be against it, but more evidence is certainly needed.

I’m worried that this is one of those “looking back, this was a huge policy error” much like late lockdowns, care homes, early unlocking, test and trace failures, opening schools etc etc.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by pbeardmore »

The issue is, we have no "control data", we will never know how many lives have been saved by giving a first vaccine earlier to someone whos dose was originally allocated as a second dose to someone else compare to lives lost to those who had received a first jab but were waiting for the second.. On the basis that the first dose does most of the work, in terms of pure logic, the policy makes sense but there may be other variables that we are not aware of.

PS Not one arrest, they all "pushed through", injuring two officers. (Hendon training, battons, pepper spray, Tazer etc etc versus pushing party goers) Just for some sort of justice, get hold of one person at least

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by NAM Updater »

Some scientific push back being reported in relation to the 'more deadlier' briefing yesterday! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55779171

Also reports that France may now be delaying the second vaccination dose to help increase numbers; covered in here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55778052
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by ericbee123 »

It’s not really a push back , it’s a case of stating the same fact in a less scary way.

30% more deadly sounds a lot scarier than saying instead of it killing 10 in 1,000 as now, the new variant might kill 13 in 1,000.

It’s still 30% more deadly, it just explains what that actually means in real terms.
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

ericbee123 wrote:
Sat 23 Jan 2021, 1:22 pm
It’s not really a push back , it’s a case of stating the same fact in a less scary way.

30% more deadly sounds a lot scarier than saying instead of it killing 10 in 1,000 as now, the new variant might kill 13 in 1,000.

It’s still 30% more deadly, it just explains what that actually means in real terms.
This is very well put. 👍🏻

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by starbuck »

Tommy wrote:
Sat 23 Jan 2021, 12:30 pm
I have a growing unease about the strategy to postpone second doses.

I get the reason why, but the scientific data doesn’t seems to support it. It might not be against it, but more evidence is certainly needed.

I’m worried that this is one of those “looking back, this was a huge policy error” much like late lockdowns, care homes, early unlocking, test and trace failures, opening schools etc etc.
I'm concerned too but as I understand it anyone with one dose still has some immunity after 7 days just not at the levels Pfizer are claiming, that only comes after the second dose.

Add to this we are in lockdown anyway for a probable minimum of another 6 weeks that should also help minimise the risk to those only on one dose.

I would be a lot more concerned if the BMA letter 'leaked' to the BBC recommended sticking to the 21 days as per the Pfizer testing but it doesn't. They are recommending 6 weeks! If the only testing is at 21 days why pick another arbitrary figure out of thin air? Looks like hedging bets to me.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by NAM Updater »

ericbee123 wrote:
Sat 23 Jan 2021, 1:22 pm
It’s not really a push back , it’s a case of stating the same fact in a less scary way.

30% more deadly sounds a lot scarier than saying instead of it killing 10 in 1,000 as now, the new variant might kill 13 in 1,000.

It’s still 30% more deadly, it just explains what that actually means in real terms.
Those numbers were in the data presented yesterday, the push back I was referring to was more in relation to some of the feedback from the various scientists in the longer news piece e.g.

"... But Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M), agreed it was too early to draw "strong conclusions" as the suggested increased mortality rates were based on "a relatively small amount of data".

He told BBC Breakfast he was "actually quite surprised" Mr Johnson had made the early findings public rather than monitoring the data "for a week or two more".

"I just worry that where we report things pre-emptively where the data are not really particularly strong," Dr Tildesley added."....


As I've commented before my observations are formed from a former brief spell as a research scientist; pharmacologist by qualification; turned writer/marketing person; who firmly believes that HMG are now 'spinning' some scientific data to aid the public's adherence to the lockdown regulations.
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by pbeardmore »

Whilst the focus was on Trump re "bleach injections" , it's horrible to be reminded that stupidity and ignorance is spread all over the globe...

Sri Lanka's health minister, who endorsed herbal syrup to prevent Covid, has tested positive for the virus.

Pavithra Wanniarachchi tested positive on Friday, a media secretary at the Ministry of Health told the BBC.

She had promoted the syrup, manufactured by a shaman who claimed it worked as a life-long inoculation against the virus.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55780425
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

pbeardmore wrote:
Sat 23 Jan 2021, 2:18 pm
Whilst the focus was on Trump re "bleach injections" , it's horrible to be reminded that stupidity and ignorance is spread all over the globe...

Sri Lanka's health minister, who endorsed herbal syrup to prevent Covid, has tested positive for the virus.

Pavithra Wanniarachchi tested positive on Friday, a media secretary at the Ministry of Health told the BBC.

She had promoted the syrup, manufactured by a shaman who claimed it worked as a life-long inoculation against the virus.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55780425
Now I haven't read the article, and actually I don't think I can be bothered to, however a point in mitigation here, or at least a very clear (possible) difference between the two examples:

Believing that injecting bleach might cure Covid = stupid and ignorant.

Believing a herbal syrup recommended by a Shamen might protect against Covid = probably stupid and ignorant, but possibly linked to her religious/spiritual beliefs.

It doesn't make it any more likely to work, and obviously spreading fake news is dangerous, but all the same, it's (potentially) different to Trump's version of stupid and ignorant.
With just the slightest bit of finesse, I might have made a little less mess.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FarnboroJohn »

CJS wrote:
Sat 23 Jan 2021, 9:34 pm
pbeardmore wrote:
Sat 23 Jan 2021, 2:18 pm
Whilst the focus was on Trump re "bleach injections" , it's horrible to be reminded that stupidity and ignorance is spread all over the globe...

Sri Lanka's health minister, who endorsed herbal syrup to prevent Covid, has tested positive for the virus.

Pavithra Wanniarachchi tested positive on Friday, a media secretary at the Ministry of Health told the BBC.

She had promoted the syrup, manufactured by a shaman who claimed it worked as a life-long inoculation against the virus.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55780425
Now I haven't read the article, and actually I don't think I can be bothered to, however a point in mitigation here, or at least a very clear (possible) difference between the two examples:

Believing that injecting bleach might cure Covid = stupid and ignorant.

Believing a herbal syrup recommended by a Shamen might protect against Covid = probably stupid and ignorant, but possibly linked to her religious/spiritual beliefs.

It doesn't make it any more likely to work, and obviously spreading fake news is dangerous, but all the same, it's (potentially) different to Trump's version of stupid and ignorant.
No, I think you've just demonstrated the uselessness and indeed active dangerousness of religious beliefs. And that the source of uselessness and active dangerousness doesn't matter, it needs stamping out regardless.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by pbeardmore »

"Believing a herbal syrup recommended by a Shamen might protect against Covid = probably stupid and ignorant"

probably !!??
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by mad_djg »

Speaking on Sophy Ridge on Sky, Health Secretary Matt Hancock would not confirm that pupils will return to schools after Easter.

"I would hope so," he told Stephen Dixon, who is covering for Sophy Ridge.

"But we have to look at the data - and the impact of the vaccination programme."

"We make these announcements as soon as we know," he said, but stressed the education secretary had promised to give schools two weeks' notice ahead of pupils' return.


Hmm - I thought the plan was that Schools would be closed until half term, with the aim that they would open mid Feb. But then I'm only a parent so what do I know? To be fair I've not keep up with things these last few days - Has Williamson said anything like this?

As much I want the kids back in school ASAP - I've got to the point where I'd rather they were at home until after Easter if it stops all yo-yoing around.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by pbeardmore »

Its all deleberate messaging to get us ready for "the long hall".They are trying to balance all of the ballyhoo around the vaccine rollout.

Meanwhile in NZ,

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55785787
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by RAF4EVER »

Covid: Hackney railway arch rave attended by '300 people':

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-55787044

Covid: Birmingham student party guests 'travelled 200 miles':

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-55786863

Covid: DVLA staff in Swansea 'scared to enter the workplace':

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55785912

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

Eindhoven curfew riots.
A few hungry police dogs let loose in that railway arch might have put the point over. £200 fines being laughed at, it needs a night in the cells.
(Mark Twain: There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics)

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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iainpeden wrote:
Mon 25 Jan 2021, 8:59 am
Eindhoven curfew riots.
A few hungry police dogs let loose in that railway arch might have put the point over. £200 fines being laughed at, it needs a night in the cells.
Dutch police arrest 240 in a night of rioting nationwide:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/01/d ... ationwide/

Riot police use water cannon, tear gas to break up demos in Eindhoven, Amsterdam:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/01/r ... amsterdam/

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

Serious question. What are the penalties for breaking the rules in the Netherlands?
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Spiny Norman »

Looking at the figures of those self-isolating when contacted or with a positive test, that might be a larger source of spread rather than people meeting outside.

Quite shocking levels of non-compliance and the DVLA situation shows that it's not "covidiots" all to blame either.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by RAF4EVER »

iainpeden wrote:
Mon 25 Jan 2021, 9:21 am
Serious question. What are the penalties for breaking the rules in the Netherlands?
95 Euro fine and no police record,over 95 you get a police record:
Fines
If you break these rules, you can get a fine.

For 13 - 15 year olds: 48 euro.
Over 16 yo: 95 euro.
No face/nose mask where obliged by law: 95 euro.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by ericbee123 »

RAF4EVER wrote:
Mon 25 Jan 2021, 9:53 am


95 Euro fine and no police record,over 95 you get a police record:
That’s a bit harsh on the over 95s !
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by pbeardmore »

If you go way back to the first press conference in March where BJ referred to "squashing the sombrero" , he was asked why delay the lockdown and the answer was that there was a limited time the public could follow such strict rules so the lockdown had to be targeted to a fixed time period to be effective. I think, we are seeing that now. There is a day by day errosion in following the rules. Even some friends that I thought knew better are constructing their own version of "essential" in order to justify breaking the rules or not following the spirit of the lockdown.

I also think there is some friction within friendss and families as people who follow the rules are watching loved ones etc openly break the rules. This adds a new source of stress and frustration.
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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

People are breaking the rules because they know that they can.

It’s a snowball effect - a few people break the rules and others think “I’ve sacrificed all year, why should they break the rules and get away with it whilst I continue to suffer at home”

And, as PB notes, friends and loved ones put pressure on others to come over for Sunday lunch, or whatever. Parents want to see their children/grandchildren. And it’s getting harder to refuse, because others are doing it.

There are many families that haven’t really seen each other for over 12 months now. Many birthdays missed, special occasions, perhaps even funerals and the chance to say goodbye to someone.

I talked about lockdown fatigue before - there’s only so much public goodwill that can be used, and it hasn’t been used right. The messaging is non-existent.

But then again, I also recall vast and idiotic conga-line celebrations for VE Day, and front pages of packed beaches and and beauty spots all throughout that glorious weather period in April - July.

Outdoor transmission is a very *very* small risk. People out in the snow, rioting and protesting, they’re obviously breaking the rules, but the actual case rates and transmission isn’t really with that stuff. It’s just that we *see* it and so attribute disproportionate amounts of blame to it.

A few hundred people in a society if millions of largely compliant people makes us think that everyone is out breaking the rules. Actually, compliance is still quite high.

The real spreading is taking place indoors. Either in workplaces, communal transport, or homes (and schools to the extent that they’re still open).

It’s far worse that less people break the rules but go inside a house for a long time than many more who are outside and broadly able to keep distant.

The worst element, though, seems to be the non-compliance with self-isolation rules. Even after positive tests. People are just not obeying it.

We need to be careful who we’re angry at.

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