Is anybody happy with the Brexit white paper?

[ericbee123]

Tommy. Glad you agree with me. No deal means we either will have expensive imports if we use WTO maximums ( as per Dan O ) or we get flooded with cheap imports if we go zero import duty ( as per your post).

The thing is we get to choose our own import duties ( eventually !).

Data on WTO members' tariffs are of two types:

Bound rates (the ceiling rates as listed in members’ “schedules” or lists of commitments)
Applied rates (the rates members currently charge, which can be lower than the bound rates).

[pbeardmore]

Tommy - good post, many thanks.

Re how complex WTO is, all the more reason to have assumed a "no deal" right from the start to give us around 2 1/2 years of planning. We have seemed to have wasted so much time and got nothing out if it. As every day goes by , we get closer and closer (and May wanted a vote to give Parliament a longer summer break ). There is still no real sense of urgency with party infighting getting in the way of the national interest.

A no deal is one thing but a no deal that we have not planned for is IMHO the worst possible outcome. By planning for a no deal 2 years ago, the worst possible outcome was avoided and it woud have put is in a stronger negotiating position by sending the message that we were ready for the no deal option and it should not be used as a threat to force to back down.

[Tommy]

I'm not sure that we should just flatly rule out a deal with the EU, because that would be pretty detrimental anyway, but yes, we should have always been wary of what a "no deal" really entails and prepared to deal with it if that happened. Every negotiation needs to have parties prepare for the situation if nothing is worked out. The EU have issued statements very recently to members to now start preparing for a no deal scenario. That should worry the damn hell out of us.

What I just posted, boring as hell, makes you fall asleep, that's the fact of the situation, and it's a failure of our current political class that instead of taking the time to sit down and read and understand and prepare for that, we get "no deal is better than a bad deal", which is utter crap.

The *only* thing we ever had control over was when to trigger Article 50. The referendum was advisory, so no-one could have forced, legally, the government to do it early. May could've triggered the unstoppable (ish) clock anytime she liked.

The government should have worked out their position, what they were going to negotiate, what they wanted from the negotiations, how there were going to do that within two years, and what their contingency plan would be if EU trade deal negotiations failed. Once that basic bare-bones mission statement was formed, *then* trigger Article 50, and get on with our defined and agreed objectives. Instead, the only real card that we had to play was squandered pretty early on whilst we had no idea (and still don't) what was going on.

As much as anything else, regardless of what side you're on, doesn't matter who is in charge; the colossally low-calibre of our current politicians across all parties should be enough to put anyone off the idea of us being able to negotiate one of the most complex and nightmareish trade, regulatory, legal, cultural, and political voluntary upheavals in history, in one of the shortest time frames in history and come out smelling of roses. They need to be razor sharp from the get go. We've got 7, (not 9 as I stated) months left and they're all as blunt as butter knives.

[Brevet Cable]

Legally speaking, there is very little that can be done to revoke the triggering of Article 50.

The question has been mooted, including by some MPs & by all accounts we can still rescind the process prior to the final date ( March 2019 )
What would happen if we tried to do so after that date is another matter.

[starbuck]

I'm pretty sure it can't be revoked or rescinded so we will leave, but I'm sure I read somewhere that the actual date that we leave can be extended if all parties decide that more time is needed to reach agreed terms. Or am I just making that up?

[Brevet Cable]

The finalisation date can be extended, but it would require all the remaining EU Members agreement to do so.

Lord Kerr- who wrote Article 50 - has said it can be revoked, as have the European Parliament & various EU legal experts.
The problem is that the text of Article 50 doesn't say whether we ( or any other nation invoking it ) can or can't, so you can pretty much guarantee that if HMG did decide to revoke it there'd be a legal challenge from the 'Leave' campaigners.

[Tommy]

Pretty much

Hence why I’ve been careful to say “(ish)” regarding stopping or extending A50.

There is no certain legal mechanism to stop Article 50. These are, legally speaking, pretty uncharted waters.

If the nation, and the rest of the EU was unified to one course or other, there could be some sort of fudge available, I’m sure, but insofar as what the ink on the agreement says, there’s no legal mechanism for stopping it.

[UKTopgun]

You are assuming that Brexit will lead to the loss of car manufacturing in the North East.

A couple of things to consider.

“Under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, UK exports of complete vehicles could be subject to tariffs of up to 10 percent.”

The Pound has fallen more than 10% in the last two years against the Euro. If The EU don’t do a deal and they apply the max WTO import tariffs , the Nissans will still be cheaper in the EU than two years ago.

Some of Nissan’s most skilful workforce is based in the U.K. When Nissan has a problem at any other manufacturing plant, they assemble a team of Geordies/Mackems and send them in to fix the problem. My friend has even been sent to Japan to fix problems.

It’s all Project Fear.

Yes - you will find reports that Nissan will close down the UK operation, if the UK becomes uneconomical. Anyone would, you assume that Brexit under WTO deal means that. It might, but it might not. I’m sure Nissan will invest more if the UK suddenly becomes more profitable - as it might just as equally. If you ask a loaded question, you will get the answer you want to hear eventually.

Well each to their own but in my view you are in Fantasyland.

[pbeardmore]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... senior-mps

Theresa May has struggled to explain how her post-Brexit customs plan will work, during a difficult appearance before a Commons committee where one senior MP said the proposals had left her “really baffled”.
Boris Johnson says it's 'not too late to save Brexit' as May faces MPs – as it happened
Read more

In tough exchanges at the liaison committee, which brings together the chairs of each of the subject-specific select committees, the prime minister eventually seemed to concede that elements of the plan were still to be decided.

Coming shortly after the former foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, labelled May’s customs idea “a fantastical, Heath Robinson customs arrangement”, the PM was pressed repeatedly on the issue by Yvette Cooper.

I genuinely think the May is trying to sell something she does not understand herself

[Brevet Cable]

Which comes back to what's already been posted on here in the past -- whichever way you voted, people on both sides would agree that PMTM's ( and her negotiating team, let's not forget ) handling of the process to date has been shambolic with little apparent forethought, which is confounded by the fact that MPs & negotiators from both sides make different claims about what the aims of the individual negotiation points are and when any part of a deal has been reached they frequently claim it means different things.
Not to mention that rather than show decisive leadership she spends most of her time trying to appease the hard-liners from both factions ( she sure as heck isn't another Thatcher )

[ericbee123]

You are assuming that Brexit will lead to the loss of car manufacturing in the North East.

.

Well each to their own but in my view you are in Fantasyland.

Which do you think is fantasy ?

That WTO tariffs of 10% on completed cars is fantasy or that the people in the North East are hard working, very skilled car manufacturers ?

A Nissan which cost £20,000 in 2016 would have cost 28,000 Euros.
That car now costs 22,400 Euros due to the pound falling.
Add on 10% WTO import duty, that Nissan in 2019 will cost 24,800 Euros , still a lot cheaper than 2016 !!!

A BMW that cost 28,000 Euros would cost you £20,000 in 2016.
The same BMW today would now cost £ 25,000 , a £5000 increase. Add on 10% WTO next year it will cost £ 27500. £7,500 more in 2019 than 2016. With nothing changing in the list price of either car or inflation.

Do you really think Nissan sales in Europe will suffer more than BMW sales in the U.K. under a no deal ?

If you think the people of the North East aren’t highly skilled car manufacturers then you are the one in cloud cuckoo fantasyland.

[pbeardmore]

Triggering Art 50 relaltively quickly gave the impression that May had some kind of vision regarding how we would leave. The opposite turned out to be true. I was convinced Cameron was the worst ever PM but it could be May.

Meanwhile, another day closer to leaving.

[AlexC]

According to Trumpy he told her how to do it, but she ignored him.

[LN Strike Eagle]

According to Trumpy he told her how to do it, but she ignored him.

He told her to sue the EU. Probably right to ignore him.

[AlexC]

He told her to sue the EU. Probably right to ignore him.

Oh yes that's right, I'd forgotten about that bit!

[Brevet Cable]

Triggering Art 50 relaltively quickly gave the impression that May had some kind of vision regarding how we would leave.

How much of that was down to trying to silence and appease the 'Leave' hard-liners, though?

[UKTopgun]

You are assuming that Brexit will lead to the loss of car manufacturing in the North East.

.

Well each to their own but in my view you are in Fantasyland.

Which do you think is fantasy ?

That WTO tariffs of 10% on completed cars is fantasy or that the people in the North East are hard working, very skilled car manufacturers ?

A Nissan which cost £20,000 in 2016 would have cost 28,000 Euros.
That car now costs 22,400 Euros due to the pound falling.
Add on 10% WTO import duty, that Nissan in 2019 will cost 24,800 Euros , still a lot cheaper than 2016 !!!

A BMW that cost 28,000 Euros would cost you £20,000 in 2016.
The same BMW today would now cost £ 25,000 , a £5000 increase. Add on 10% WTO next year it will cost £ 27500. £7,500 more in 2019 than 2016. With nothing changing in the list price of either car or inflation.

Do you really think Nissan sales in Europe will suffer more than BMW sales in the U.K. under a no deal ?

If you think the people of the North East aren’t highly skilled car manufacturers then you are the one in cloud cuckoo fantasyland.

Did I say the people of the North East were not highly skilled car manufacturers? Please don't put words into my mouth.
They could be the most skilled in the world, if the factories are in Poland/Romania/add another country of your choice, these skills will be of little use unless they emigrate.

[Tommy]

Triggering Art 50 relaltively quickly gave the impression that May had some kind of vision regarding how we would leave.

How much of that was down to trying to silence and appease the 'Leave' hard-liners, though?

Which is why that completely disastrous “citizens of nowhere” speech in the Autumn Tory Party Conference which was her first real foot forward as PM, was her first and largest mistake. It set the agenda. It got the hardliners’ blood up. At a time when they’re already on a high for winning the vote they didn’t believe that they could win. She didn’t need to do that. She hadn’t promised that in her leadership election. All the hardline Brexiters knew she supported remain, but were still happy with her as PM. That speech was an unforced error, and the single worse decision she has made during her tenure. Every subsequent decision she has made has its roots in that speech.

What was needed was common sense - “we are leaving but we’ve got a metric poo-tonne of hard work to do, and we *all* need to muck in to make the best of it.”

She’s been trying to crawl back from the tone set in that “citizens of nowhere” speech ever since.

That’s why she triggered Article 50 and the unstoppable two-year clock early, without a plan and, likely, without knowing what the hell she was doing. Perversely, I think that’s the real reason she called a snap election. To get more Tory moderates in whilst Labour were low on the poll numbers - to help her reign that rhetoric back without losing a majority. Obviously she actually made the problem a hell of a lot worse for herself.

I’ve said it all along. And been proven right. She makes poor decisions.

[Brevet Cable]

They seem to have forgotten ( or never heard of ) the difficulties Greenland had when they left the EU and the fact that it took them 3 years to reach a deal, and their leaving process was a heck of a lot easier than the UK's is.

[ericbee123]

Did I say the people of the North East were not highly skilled car manufacturers? Please don't put words into my mouth.
They could be the most skilled in the world, if the factories are in Poland/Romania/add another country of your choice, these skills will be of little use unless they emigrate.

Still making no sense. Why would Nissan shut down a profitable plant with some of their most talented employees and move it to Poland/Romania ?

[Domvickery]

Still making no sense. Why would Nissan shut down a profitable plant with some of their most talented employees and move it to Poland/Romania ?

For the same reason JLR are?

[Brevet Cable]

Who is Nissan's main partner ( which effectively owns almost 45% of Nissan's shares ) and where does that partner also have manufacturing facilities?
If it proves more profitable to assemble the cars somewhere other than the UK they'll do so, particulrly as one of the things the hard-line 'Leave' campaigners want to get rid of are the various workers' rights the UK currently has due to it's EU membership ( back to the bad old days where companies could close down factories without consultation and where they often indulged in dodgy practices to avoid paying the employees redundancy pay )

[ericbee123]

Still all ifs and buts.

[parsley]

Did I say the people of the North East were not highly skilled car manufacturers? Please don't put words into my mouth.
They could be the most skilled in the world, if the factories are in Poland/Romania/add another country of your choice, these skills will be of little use unless they emigrate.

Still making no sense. Why would Nissan shut down a profitable plant with some of their most talented employees and move it to Poland/Romania ?

Because of the large percentage of the parts for the cars built in Sunderland which are currently imported from the EU ?

[starbuck]

Who is Nissan's main partner ( which effectively owns almost 45% of Nissan's shares ) and where does that partner also have manufacturing facilities?
If it proves more profitable to assemble the cars somewhere other than the UK they'll do so, particulrly as one of the things the hard-line 'Leave' campaigners want to get rid of are the various workers' rights the UK currently has due to it's EU membership ( back to the bad old days where companies could close down factories without consultation and where they often indulged in dodgy practices to avoid paying the employees redundancy pay )

I'm not disagreeing with the general point but closing down a factory and moving production elsewhere to be more profitable isn't exclusive to being outside the EU is it? The same could just as easily (and has) happened whilst we have been in the EU. And perversely you could argue that if there was to be a reduction in workers rights that would actually make the UK more attractive for companies to set up shop here (not that I am actually advocating less workers rights)