2021 Airshows

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EGL
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2021 Airshows

Post by EGL »

Just finished listening today to Episode 21 of the podcast where airshows next year were being discussed at the end.

30 mins later and up pops on my Twitter feed an announcement that next years Scotland's National Airshow at East Fortune has been cancelled.
To deliver next year's Airshow, planning and booking of display aircraft would have to start now and it’s too soon to know whether the current restrictions in response to the outbreak of Covid-19 will be fully lifted by next summer.
Wonder how many others will follow?

GeeRam
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by GeeRam »

EGL wrote:
Wed 04 Nov 2020, 1:46 pm
Just finished listening today to Episode 21 of the podcast where airshows next year were being discussed at the end.

30 mins later and up pops on my Twitter feed an announcement that next years Scotland's National Airshow at East Fortune has been cancelled.
To deliver next year's Airshow, planning and booking of display aircraft would have to start now and it’s too soon to know whether the current restrictions in response to the outbreak of Covid-19 will be fully lifted by next summer.
Wonder how many others will follow?
Lots, and for the same reasons as they cite.
You can't commit and plan now in advance for such big events, when no one knows what the situation will be in spring or summer next year, especially if that means committing funds now, which you may not be able to recover if the situation still makes it not possible to run next year.
I have friends that run their own very large festival type events, and they are in the same boat, and would now be having to commit money to plan two large events in mid summer and next November, and at this point in time don't expect either to happen next year. They are now looking for normal jobs as they will otherwise have no joint income for possibly 2 years with this year and next year as write-offs.

Mike
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by Mike »

I expect quite a number will cancel for the same reason, and of those several will never come back.

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rockfordstone
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by rockfordstone »

i think it will be fine. Boris said we will have won the battle with the virus by spring so no worries

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Spiny Norman
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by Spiny Norman »

That's a pity East Fortune has been cancelled. Ironically it could have possibly been held this summer, in a Shuttleworth style, so low were the infection rates in mid July.

ErrolC
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by ErrolC »

GeeRam wrote:
Wed 04 Nov 2020, 2:08 pm
...
Lots, and for the same reasons as they cite.
You can't commit and plan now in advance for such big events, when no one knows what the situation will be in spring or summer next year, especially if that means committing funds now, which you may not be able to recover if the situation still makes it not possible to run next year.
..
Even with NZ's more optimistic outlook, uncertainty is still a damper on large events - even without regional or national lockdowns, only the lowest level of measures allows for large events. So Government funding is available to the events industry.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/back-you ... d-midcovid
Event organisers in Marlborough are feeling “relief” and “security” after being granted funding from central government, enabling them to plan for upcoming festivals.

The Domestic Events Fund (DEF) was established to support the sector, which had been significantly impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Seven key events in the region have secured funding, most with a date set down for 2021.
Classic Fighters Airshow organiser Graham Orphan said every airshow had “uncertainties” but never as many as planning during a pandemic.
“It has been a huge gamble, because we just don’t know what the landscape is going to look like in seven months time,” Orphan said.
“However with the funding that we’ve secured, it means that there are things we can put in place right across the board, that reduce the risk.
“It gives organisers like ourselves the confidence to not cancel."
...

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spellow3010
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by spellow3010 »

'We'll have the virus beaten by Spring 2021...' effectively claimed Boris. Back in March, I think his crowd said the same about 'returning to normal' by Autumn 2020.

They'll just keep moving the short-term goalposts to stop people going bonkers with angst and despair because at the end of the day, they know about as much as us in this forum about what the future holds right now. Speculation and hope.

As one of the world's outliers, it will be interesting to see what happens in New Zealand when the borders open up. It's all very well believing that it's resolved in that country, but it'll keep coming back there unless they live in national isolation for evermore. A picturesque open prison.

I would be amazed if anything large scale involving the wider public were allowed to happen in 2021, especially in the UK. Even with the anticipated 'reduction in infections because it's summer.' Don't forget, at each advert break on Sky News, they remind us 'quite clearly' that weather and seasons have NO IMPACT on the virus.

I've said it elsewhere, we won't be 'socially distancing' at Park and View East for Fairford Arrivals... We won't be getting a socially distanced security pat-down and 'wanding' at Fairford either. It's an un-necessary risk for the security/armed forces staff involved... and it's not practical... and it just won't happen. Socially Distanced FRIAT grandstand? Not happening. Drive In And Park on the crowd line akin to the Old Warden experiment? Not happening because I doubt that they would make any meaningful money. Maybe price themselves out of the market more to the point.

2021 for me is another bust. Already started managing my expectations.

Lockdown... and carry on.

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rockfordstone
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by rockfordstone »

spellow3010 wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 3:07 pm
2021 for me is another bust. Already started managing my expectations.
same. hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

i suspect a lot of what is allowed in the summer will depend what happens over the winter months and on the timing or availability of any vaccine that may or may not be available. if it is due to be available before the autumn next year then it is possible that summer events may go ahead.

FarnboroJohn
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by FarnboroJohn »

As they once said of Shackleton: when all hope is gone, get down on your knees and pray for Shuttleworth!

GeeRam
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by GeeRam »

spellow3010 wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 3:07 pm
'We'll have the virus beaten by Spring 2021...' effectively claimed Boris. Back in March, I think his crowd said the same about 'returning to normal' by Autumn 2020.
Boris the Buffoon needs to learn when to STFU.....he of all people having been hospitalised with the bloody thing needs to start be straight with the population, which is why we're in this second situation as the world was too stupid in allowing everything to kick as if all was back to normal, and it never was.
The vast majority of people are simply too stupid to understand such simple facts.

My dear old Gran (b.1904) was not blessed with a great education but I'm old enough to remember her tales of living and surviving through the 3 years duration of the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918-20, and that was without the knowledge and communication advances we have to day to be able to get the message across....not to say the medical science.
But we seem to be in a worse situation of people simply not grasping basics to reduce the transmission of this virus.
spellow3010 wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 3:07 pm
As one of the world's outliers, it will be interesting to see what happens in New Zealand when the borders open up. It's all very well believing that it's resolved in that country, but it'll keep coming back there unless they live in national isolation for evermore. A picturesque open prison.
I'm not so sure they will be opening their borders anytime soon. At best once AUs gets to a similar level of no transmission, a ANZAC travel bridge might open up, along with any other from somewhere that has a similar zero rate......Taiwan/Singapore etc...?

I cant see Aus-NZ opening their borders to anyone from USA and Western Europe for quite some time - and I don't blame them, especially if internally they can largely get back to 'normal life' within.

ErrolC
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by ErrolC »

GeeRam wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 4:43 pm
spellow3010 wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 3:07 pm
As one of the world's outliers, it will be interesting to see what happens in New Zealand when the borders open up. It's all very well believing that it's resolved in that country, but it'll keep coming back there unless they live in national isolation for evermore. A picturesque open prison.
I'm not so sure they will be opening their borders anytime soon. At best once AUs gets to a similar level of no transmission, a ANZAC travel bridge might open up, along with any other from somewhere that has a similar zero rate......Taiwan/Singapore etc...?

I cant see Aus-NZ opening their borders to anyone from USA and Western Europe for quite some time - and I don't blame them, especially if internally they can largely get back to 'normal life' within.
Many of us in NZ are annoyed that there aren't planeloads of Taiwanese students in NZ universities - can only assume that treating them in a way that is in line with reality would upset certain other powerful countries. The issue with NZ letting Aussies in without quarantine is that most AU states do NOT have a policy of 'elimination', and are content with a low level of cases. NZ's approach expects to get rare border breaches (like the two staff members at a quarantine facility last week) that can be quickly contained (which has happened three times). A practical difference is that NSW still only allows 500 at outdoor events, so the big airshows there aren't happening, while NZ has no limits.

I certainly hope that Aussie avgeeks can come over for Wings Over Wairarapa in February (who knows if Peter Jackson will continue to keep TVAL going past this season) and Omaka at Easter.

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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by UKTopgun »

I fully agree that the govt set small lockdowns really only for the purpose of keeping spirits of the public higher. After all, if the first lockdown was 3 months why suddenly is this new one just one? They don't know of course. No-one does. 2 Dec is more palatable that's all.

As for airshows, I too am pessimistic for 2021. Even if the virus recedes and it's safe enough, many will have no money after the crisis. So shows and other leisure pursuits will inevitably suffer.

I think 2022 may see a slow return for airshows but even that is unlikely to be a normal season. Hope I am wrong as I miss shows badly!!

GeeRam
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by GeeRam »

UKTopgun wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 6:34 pm
I fully agree that the govt set small lockdowns really only for the purpose of keeping spirits of the public higher. After all, if the first lockdown was 3 months why suddenly is this new one just one?
Daily infections are 3/4 times what they were at peak in March/April, although testing wasn't in place then in any degree of certainty, although I think the state of the testing and track n trace program in the UK is probably the UK Govt biggest mess up compared to other countries, its still woeful in this country.....so, they need to try and put a brake on things to stop the NHS going into meltdown again. Only thing is NHS are better prepared this time in terms of treatment, but they have a capacity limit, and they've not had much respite over the summer.

Will 4 weeks be enough, I don't think so, but we'll see. They should have done it 2 weeks ago before it got out of hand....but they bottled it.....again.

Andyph
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by Andyph »

ErrolC wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 6:14 pm
GeeRam wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 4:43 pm
spellow3010 wrote:
Thu 05 Nov 2020, 3:07 pm
As one of the world's outliers, it will be interesting to see what happens in New Zealand when the borders open up. It's all very well believing that it's resolved in that country, but it'll keep coming back there unless they live in national isolation for evermore. A picturesque open prison.
I'm not so sure they will be opening their borders anytime soon. At best once AUs gets to a similar level of no transmission, a ANZAC travel bridge might open up, along with any other from somewhere that has a similar zero rate......Taiwan/Singapore etc...?

I cant see Aus-NZ opening their borders to anyone from USA and Western Europe for quite some time - and I don't blame them, especially if internally they can largely get back to 'normal life' within.
Many of us in NZ are annoyed that there aren't planeloads of Taiwanese students in NZ universities - can only assume that treating them in a way that is in line with reality would upset certain other powerful countries. The issue with NZ letting Aussies in without quarantine is that most AU states do NOT have a policy of 'elimination', and are content with a low level of cases. NZ's approach expects to get rare border breaches (like the two staff members at a quarantine facility last week) that can be quickly contained (which has happened three times). A practical difference is that NSW still only allows 500 at outdoor events, so the big airshows there aren't happening, while NZ has no limits.

I certainly hope that Aussie avgeeks can come over for Wings Over Wairarapa in February (who knows if Peter Jackson will continue to keep TVAL going past this season) and Omaka at Easter.
Errol,I don't want anyone entering NZ! - Quite happy to keep the door closed.
Especially Aussies!
Omaka will be lovely without them! Trust me!
That said I do hope 'stralia gets on top of the virus - I was rather keen on going to Amberley or Avalon for the 100th gig

lambo17841
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by lambo17841 »

Have given up what Boris has been saying or his so called experts.Nobody has got any idea if and when any sort of injection will come for the general public.
They ran out of flu injections so what hope of one for everybody for Covid.The extension of the furlow payment at least till March is a clue to all the talk from Boris of a normal Christmas is pie in the sky.
As soon as the lockdown,if it ends in December,all the pubs will be packed with office parties and idiots who cannot control their drinking and we will be back where we started with infections going up..
My view is just forget any sort of airshow for 21 and maybe never again for events like RIAT with thousands of people attending.

John in Seaford

FGR2
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by FGR2 »

I did say right at the beginning, 2020 would be a write off along with 2021.

I can’t see any larger gatherings taking place until at least the summer, the furlough scheme until April points towards tight/tiered restrictions until at least then.

Will shows like RIAT be allowed with personnel jetting in from around the world? I very much doubt it.

I would also expect the financial consequences to be hitting people by then as well. In general, based on the chaotic path we have trodden this year, I think 2021 is looking bleak.

I am just not buying the brighter future, light at the end of the tunnel sound bites from Johnson.

If anything I think shows will be killed off long term by economics, rather than Social distancing. There just won’t be the money to host them.

Ken Shabby
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by Ken Shabby »

I’d be surprised if there’s any meaningful sort of airshow season in 2021 and I think we should be prepared to accept that the airshow ‘scene’ as we know it will never come back.

I think we have seen our last RIAT and aside from shows at Duxford and Shuttleworth, I don’t see many others - big or small - ever returning.
Ken

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CJS
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by CJS »

Ken Shabby wrote:
Thu 19 Nov 2020, 9:51 am
I’d be surprised if there’s any meaningful sort of airshow season in 2021 and I think we should be prepared to accept that the airshow ‘scene’ as we know it will never come back.

I think we have seen our last RIAT and aside from shows at Duxford and Shuttleworth, I don’t see many others - big or small - ever returning.
Seriously? :dizzy:

Granted, 2021 might be a disjointed affair airshow-wise, but this is not a virus that's going to kill off mass gatherings as we know them, it really isn't.

There are too many other types of mass gatherings that will be considered way too important to just write off - 50,000 crammed in to a little (by comparison to an airfield) sports stadium for example, but you really think sport based mass gatherings (ie. having spectators back) is going to be gone for ever? Course it's not.

There's no reason at all that airshows can't and won't be back up and running once the virus is brought under control with the expected and very welcome vaccines.

As long as they have managed to mothball themselves for long enough to start up again I mean - if they have survived financially - then I don't see a virus related reason for them not to start up again once other mass gatherings (concerts, football matches and so on) are given the go ahead to continue.
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rockfordstone
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by rockfordstone »

Ken Shabby wrote:
Thu 19 Nov 2020, 9:51 am
I’d be surprised if there’s any meaningful sort of airshow season in 2021 and I think we should be prepared to accept that the airshow ‘scene’ as we know it will never come back.

I think we have seen our last RIAT and aside from shows at Duxford and Shuttleworth, I don’t see many others - big or small - ever returning.
they are already talking about opening football stadiums shortly with plans for more mass gatherings in Q1 next year. it's possible that there will be a summer season but i'd be more worried about the early season shows.

a lot i think depends on their confidence in the availability and effectiveness of the vaccines now being tested.

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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by farnboroughrob »

Personally I see 2021 as being a subdued year. I can see those with fixed facilities like Old Warden and Duxford and just maybe Yeovilton and Cosford taking place in some way. I would say RIAT is 40% likely with Yeovilton/Cosford 50-50. Likely to see some smaller shows and some seaside activity. Like others have said if RIAT is canned I see it being a scaled back event if it does continue. Most countries will see the economics biting and military spending may well suffer, and certianlly wont be a priority.

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CJS
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by CJS »

farnboroughrob wrote:
Thu 19 Nov 2020, 1:37 pm
Personally I see 2021 as being a subdued year. I can see those with fixed facilities like Old Warden and Duxford and just maybe Yeovilton and Cosford taking place in some way. I would say RIAT is 40% likely with Yeovilton/Cosford 50-50. Likely to see some smaller shows and some seaside activity. Like others have said if RIAT is canned I see it being a scaled back event if it does continue. Most countries will see the economics biting and military spending may well suffer, and certianlly wont be a priority.
[cough]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54988870[/cough]
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Ken Shabby
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by Ken Shabby »

CJS wrote:
Thu 19 Nov 2020, 10:48 am
Ken Shabby wrote:
Thu 19 Nov 2020, 9:51 am
I’d be surprised if there’s any meaningful sort of airshow season in 2021 and I think we should be prepared to accept that the airshow ‘scene’ as we know it will never come back.

I think we have seen our last RIAT and aside from shows at Duxford and Shuttleworth, I don’t see many others - big or small - ever returning.
Seriously? :dizzy:

Granted, 2021 might be a disjointed affair airshow-wise, but this is not a virus that's going to kill off mass gatherings as we know them, it really isn't.

There are too many other types of mass gatherings that will be considered way too important to just write off - 50,000 crammed in to a little (by comparison to an airfield) sports stadium for example, but you really think sport based mass gatherings (ie. having spectators back) is going to be gone for ever? Course it's not.

There's no reason at all that airshows can't and won't be back up and running once the virus is brought under control with the expected and very welcome vaccines.

As long as they have managed to mothball themselves for long enough to start up again I mean - if they have survived financially - then I don't see a virus related reason for them not to start up again once other mass gatherings (concerts, football matches and so on) are given the go ahead to continue.
Yes, seriously. It’s not about whether the will to organise airshows again will still exist, but a question of how much of the infrastructure that supports them (including businesses such as sponsors) has survived the past six months and how much will survive the coming months.

You mention mothballing - whilst that’s possible for some businesses, it still costs money and for many they can’t just put things ‘on hold’ and magically re-start when circumstances allow. Over 10,000 businesses have gone to the wall in the past six months. 4,000 new ones have appeared, but it’s still a huge deficit. Sports-based mass gatherings will continue, of course, but it’s taking £300 million of public money announced today to make sure the infrastructure survives to be there when they can resume.

If RIAT doesn’t happen next year, which I don’t think it will, how much of its organisation will survive after a two-year absence to put on another? People move on and don’t come back, skills and knowledge gets lost, things get sold off. And large airshows have a habit of never reappearing after taking so-called ‘short breaks’ e.g. Mildenhall, Waddington.

Hopefully, I’ll be proved wrong but, as enthusiasts, we shouldn’t underestimate the enormous effect the COVID restrictions have had (and will continue to have) on the many businesses and organisations we rely on to deliver the airshow ‘scene’. It would be naive of us to think we will get our jabs and it will all suddenly reappear.
Ken

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CJS
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by CJS »

Ken Shabby wrote:
Thu 19 Nov 2020, 2:20 pm
CJS wrote:
Thu 19 Nov 2020, 10:48 am
Ken Shabby wrote:
Thu 19 Nov 2020, 9:51 am
I’d be surprised if there’s any meaningful sort of airshow season in 2021 and I think we should be prepared to accept that the airshow ‘scene’ as we know it will never come back.

I think we have seen our last RIAT and aside from shows at Duxford and Shuttleworth, I don’t see many others - big or small - ever returning.
Seriously? :dizzy:

Granted, 2021 might be a disjointed affair airshow-wise, but this is not a virus that's going to kill off mass gatherings as we know them, it really isn't.

There are too many other types of mass gatherings that will be considered way too important to just write off - 50,000 crammed in to a little (by comparison to an airfield) sports stadium for example, but you really think sport based mass gatherings (ie. having spectators back) is going to be gone for ever? Course it's not.

There's no reason at all that airshows can't and won't be back up and running once the virus is brought under control with the expected and very welcome vaccines.

As long as they have managed to mothball themselves for long enough to start up again I mean - if they have survived financially - then I don't see a virus related reason for them not to start up again once other mass gatherings (concerts, football matches and so on) are given the go ahead to continue.
Yes, seriously. It’s not about whether the will to organise airshows again will still exist, but a question of how much of the infrastructure that supports them (including businesses such as sponsors) has survived the past six months and how much will survive the coming months.

You mention mothballing - whilst that’s possible for some businesses, it still costs money and for many they can’t just put things ‘on hold’ and magically re-start when circumstances allow. Over 10,000 businesses have gone to the wall in the past six months. 4,000 new ones have appeared, but it’s still a huge deficit. Sports-based mass gatherings will continue, of course, but it’s taking £300 million of public money announced today to make sure the infrastructure survives to be there when they can resume.

If RIAT doesn’t happen next year, which I don’t think it will, how much of its organisation will survive after a two-year absence to put on another? People move on and don’t come back, skills and knowledge gets lost, things get sold off. And large airshows have a habit of never reappearing after taking so-called ‘short breaks’ e.g. Mildenhall, Waddington.

Hopefully, I’ll be proved wrong but, as enthusiasts, we shouldn’t underestimate the enormous effect the COVID restrictions have had (and will continue to have) on the many businesses and organisations we rely on to deliver the airshow ‘scene’. It would be naive of us to think we will get our jabs and it will all suddenly reappear.
I'm not quite sure what could be 'sold off' to be honest, and yes people might jump ship, but RIAT is a pretty big ship and if (I concede, it's an if) it goes ahead again, there will be plenty of people waiting to board her again - to continue the analogy.

As for businesses that sponsor RIAT going under, I think a fair few on this list will still be around in 2022, let alone 2021: https://www.airtattoo.com/supporters

I'm an optimist at heart, perhaps that's my problem!
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2e1var
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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by 2e1var »

The risk to the average person has always been low, the issue is them passing onto the vulnerable. Now that they are about to start that vaccinations with those most at risk I think by April/May we will be rocking and rolling again. I think the only worry is they will probably have to make a decision on the show before then.

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Re: 2021 Airshows

Post by FGR2 »

The WHO conference on TV a moment ago were talking in terms of sticking to what we are doing for the next six months. The vaccine does not stop transmission (and may be around forever), the only way to control it is by modifying our behaviour, as we are currently doing.

Really don’t think that we are going to see anything in the way of normal events next year.

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