COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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harkins
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by harkins »

Is this where they say don’t panic, carry on as normal and then a few days before Christmas we’re in lockdown again as the hospitals start filling up with the triple vaccinated?

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Spiny Norman
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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Hopefully we'll not hear about a visit to Legoland or somesuch waffle.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by NAM Updater »

Following discussions about these parts on the topic of whether or not vaccination helps reduce transmission, I came across this item that was published in New Scientist last month!

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... accinated/
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by iainpeden »

:grin: Thanks, Howard; Tommy it’s over to you!
(Mark Twain: There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics)

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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

Does it add anything to the FullFact article I posted a few days ago? That was from this month, iirc.

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harkins
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by harkins »

So, masks to become compulsory on public transport and in shops. Best of luck with that now.

I’m putting a tenner on lockdown-lite by Christmas; so six person max in homes, table service back in hospitality etc. Then maybe a full lockdown (excluding furlough) by February. Let’s hope the 100 days fit a new vaccine is true. That way we can hope for a reasonable summer. FRIAT rollover incoming??

cg_341
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by cg_341 »

Does anyone think the public at large will be following these restrictions any more?

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harkins
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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I think the majority will, but the freedom blah blah blah brigade will swell in numbers.

Given the belief among scientists that the vaccines are most likely compromised, I can see the vaccine program suffering too. People are likely to say ‘what’s the point?’ Sadly they might be right.

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harkins
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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On a recent holiday to Cornwall we played snakes and ladders. This feels a lot like that. Omicron is like a bloody long snake taking you back to the second square on the board.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FarnboroJohn »

cg_341 wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 6:47 pm
Does anyone think the public at large will be following these restrictions any more?
No. Indeed there is evidence that they didn't during the last lockdown and that even during the first lockdown compliance was less than most would have believed (including me I admit).

https://guernseypress.com/news/uk-news/ ... in--study/

Household mixing decreased by 54% during the first lockdown. That surprised me, as I thought it must have been decreased more sharply: the unstated figure here is that 46% carried on as usual!

During the second lockdown compliance was minimal, beginning at 15% and rising later in the winter to 26%.

Compliance was higher in rural areas than in cities, no surprise there.

Obviously the data could be subject to a variety of errors (including bias in the kind of people prepared to participate in the study, even with anonymised data) but mobile phone tracking seems to me a likely source of accurate location sampling.

Given the availability now of data that conflicts with the actions being taken (e.g. the South African doctor pointing out the new variant gives mild illness only) and that nobody, but nobody, thinks Boris Johnson has authority left, I foresee limited compliance in visible situations (e.g. people may well put a mask on in shops) but very low compliance out of sight in households etc.

I didn't watch the press conference. Was work from home if you can one of the measures advocated?

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by NAM Updater »

Tommy wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 6:02 pm
Does it add anything to the FullFact article I posted a few days ago? That was from this month, iirc.
I believe that it does, which is why I posted it!
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harkins
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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FarnboroJohn wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 7:11 pm
I didn't watch the press conference. Was work from home if you can one of the measures advocated?
Nope. Just that masks on public transport and in shops will be announced soon.

Life is mega depressing now. I wonder what individual ate that bat or dropped a vial and whether if they’re still alive today they’re thinking, “I’m pretty sure I started all this”.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by boff180 »

I'm off on a cruise in just over 4 weeks, I don't mind having to do a PCR test on return, just glad I hadn't booked the Day 2 LFD tests yet!

If this virus is mutating so rapidly and what we know about waining protection after xyz months - is it time to seriously consider putting a requirement in place that you cannot enter the country unless you have received a booster jab within the past 3 months?

Similar in the way other nations don't allow individuals in without an up to date vaccination for certain viruses/diseases?

vandal
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by vandal »

harkins wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 6:27 pm
So, masks to become compulsory on public transport and in shops. Best of luck with that now.
Johnson only has himself to thank for that - there's been a recent string of high profile appearances where he was maskless, - regardless of the rules / laws.

Credit though, this action to close Borders & implement measures was pretty quick.

Edit - for us UKARian's North of the Border - advice from Scottish Health Secretary is to act as if the new variant is already here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59446294

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FarnboroJohn »

boff180 wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 8:23 pm
I'm off on a cruise in just over 4 weeks, I don't mind having to do a PCR test on return, just glad I hadn't booked the Day 2 LFD tests yet!

If this virus is mutating so rapidly and what we know about waining protection after xyz months - is it time to seriously consider putting a requirement in place that you cannot enter the country unless you have received a booster jab within the past 3 months?

Similar in the way other nations don't allow individuals in without an up to date vaccination for certain viruses/diseases?
Not unless you intend to limit Armed Forces overseas tours to less than three months....

Can I just ask how long the current booster jab programme is expected to last from its first stab, and what the interval is between the previous jab and the booster? Still keen on your idea?

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by ericbee123 »

harkins wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 6:27 pm
Then maybe a full lockdown (excluding furlough) by February.
What does that mean ? A full lockdown but hundreds of thousands of staff laid off instead of the government paying furlough - or only those none-essential jobs locked down that would still get paid by their employers to not work ?
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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My experience of furlough is that half the company got 80% of their wages paid by the government and topped up the other 20% by the company. All the field engineers had to work throughout as they were essential workers. The people that have worked for 18 months none-stop haven’t been able to take holidays and then furloughed staff that have been on full pay for 18 months came back to full time employment and quickly booked off as many holidays as they could - as they’ve been sat at home for 18 months on full pay and not been able to go on holiday - whereby the rest of the staff have worked throughout and still can’t go holiday as the furloughed staff have booked all the available holidays.

If the government hadn’t paid their wages they would have been laid off and the essential staff would have been unaffected by them. As it happens they’ve been disadvantaged by them !!
Disclaimer-I have spell/grammar checked this post, it may still contain mistakes that might cause offence.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tomahawk »

NAM Updater wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 7:11 pm
Tommy wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 6:02 pm
Does it add anything to the FullFact article I posted a few days ago? That was from this month, iirc.
I believe that it does, which is why I posted it!
I believe that it does too, the FullFact article is a mish mash that needed re editing but Tommy got what he needed from it....

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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

Tomahawk wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 10:29 pm
NAM Updater wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 7:11 pm
Tommy wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 6:02 pm
Does it add anything to the FullFact article I posted a few days ago? That was from this month, iirc.
I believe that it does, which is why I posted it!
I believe that it does too, the FullFact article is a mish mash that needed re editing but Tommy got what he needed from it....
What, precisely, do I “need”?

I’d be overjoyed if vaccines materially cut transmission.

We can quote articles at each other until the cows come home. I was reading one a few weeks ago, also, from October that held precisely the opposite view. You can also criticise the FullFact article all you like, but it’s the most recent and reliable source that explains it in layman’s terms.

If the scientific consensus changes to note that vaccines materially cut transmission, then I’ll be overjoyed, but wishing it to be so and wanting it to be so are not the same.

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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »



Easy to doom-monger about Omicron, but does this really change much from what we aren’t already used to?

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tomahawk »

Tommy wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 11:13 pm
Tomahawk wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 10:29 pm
NAM Updater wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 7:11 pm
Tommy wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 6:02 pm
Does it add anything to the FullFact article I posted a few days ago? That was from this month, iirc.
I believe that it does, which is why I posted it!
I believe that it does too, the FullFact article is a mish mash that needed re editing but Tommy got what he needed from it....
What, precisely, do I “need”?

I’d be overjoyed if vaccines materially cut transmission.

We can quote articles at each other until the cows come home. I was reading one a few weeks ago, also, from October that held precisely the opposite view. You can also criticise the FullFact article all you like, but it’s the most recent and reliable source that explains it in layman’s terms.

If the scientific consensus changes to note that vaccines materially cut transmission, then I’ll be overjoyed, but wishing it to be so and wanting it to be so are not the same.
Wow, you are easily triggered aren't you?

I actually agree with you on the main point of vaccines not materially cutting transmission but any objective reading of the Full Fact article in its entirety does not give it the definitive weight you gave when quoting it, 'put the matter to bed' I believe were the words used. It doesn't.

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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

Tomahawk wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 11:24 pm
Wow, you are easily triggered aren't you?
🙄

Apologies, if it makes you feel better, I won’t answer to a post made, itself, in response to or about me.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tomahawk »

Tommy wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 11:35 pm
Tomahawk wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 11:24 pm
Wow, you are easily triggered aren't you?
🙄

Apologies, if it makes you feel better, I won’t answer to a post made, itself, in response to or about me.
Well, given I dropped a hook into my original one line post and you bit on to it when replying, as I knew you would, that statement clearly isn't true.

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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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FarnboroJohn wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 10:01 pm


Not unless you intend to limit Armed Forces overseas tours to less than three months....

Can I just ask how long the current booster jab programme is expected to last from its first stab, and what the interval is between the previous jab and the booster? Still keen on your idea?
The military typically run their own vaccination programs, we’re talking about general public and travel.

Other nations have already implemented a time limit on vaccination to allow entry - it is specifically why in the past week the booster jab has been included on the Covid passport.

Austria for instance, if your second jab or booster jab occurred more than 270 days ago you are now required to self isolate upon arrival.

Covid is endemic. It’s easy to believe that the Covid vaccination is going to head the way of the flu jab and that annual/six monthly boosters are going to be available indefinitely.

In future, we’re probably going to see a program closer to the Flu jab where vulnerable get it for free - anyone else who wants it must pay.

In that situation - the government can quite easily put a time limit on last booster as an entry requirement to the country.

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harkins
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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ericbee123 wrote:
Sat 27 Nov 2021, 10:20 pm
My experience of furlough is that half the company got 80% of their wages paid by the government and topped up the other 20% by the company. All the field engineers had to work throughout as they were essential workers. The people that have worked for 18 months none-stop haven’t been able to take holidays and then furloughed staff that have been on full pay for 18 months came back to full time employment and quickly booked off as many holidays as they could - as they’ve been sat at home for 18 months on full pay and not been able to go on holiday - whereby the rest of the staff have worked throughout and still can’t go holiday as the furloughed staff have booked all the available holidays.

If the government hadn’t paid their wages they would have been laid off and the essential staff would have been unaffected by them. As it happens they’ve been disadvantaged by them !!
My experience was that I did not ask to be furloughed, did not want to be furloughed and did not get my salary made up by the company. I just spent three months staring out the window at nothing whilst fearing that one way or the other I would lose my job and could only hope that I might be lucky enough to find an essential job where I could feel a better degree of certainty that I could keep the roof over my head. About 12 of my colleagues were made redundant as the lockdown was relaxed and I count myself lucky that my role was deemed worth retaining. Like most things in life, I’m sure the experience isn’t the same for everyone, but I’m sick of being told that being furloughed was like winning the lottery. It was a very dark few months for me with great uncertainty.

My advice to you would be to quit whatever essential job you have and get yourself something that a company can survive without in harder times then you can rejoice in the advantages of being furloughed if it happens again.

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