COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

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MiG_Eater
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by MiG_Eater »

Great little article that sums up my views exactly.


"We have compared the pandemic to fighting a war, but during Covid, we have sacrificed our collective freedom to save individual lives; in war, we sacrifice individual lives to save our collective freedom."


https://unherd.com/thepost/delaying-lib ... ZzEuB574Bg


UKTopgun, around 1600 people die every day in the UK. We are still well below the average number. My view has been for a long time that length of life is irrelevant on its own, what is relevant is Quality Adjusted Years. There is someone I know who has suffered so much due to the Covid restrictions and will not recover, that I genuinely would have preferred them to die last March.

Incidentally, I was speaking to someone yesterday who knows a child that had their cancer treatment delayed due to the restrictions. This child is now dead. Not a Covid death though, so it doesn't really seem to factor into government policy.
Last edited by MiG_Eater on Mon 14 Jun 2021, 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

UKTopgun
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by UKTopgun »

Forgive me, what does 1600 people in UK every day allude to?

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rockfordstone
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rockfordstone »

Tommy wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 9:24 am
We are suffering from a massive failure of government policy. Simple as that. We should all be angry.
i dont think this wave, spike, delay is even down to failure of policy. we red listed bangladesh, we red listed pakistan, we didnt red list india because boris johnson needed the win of a trade deal with india. he wanted to do a victory lap in india and be photographed signing it all.

that's not policy failure, it's pure ego that has put us here

UKTopgun
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by UKTopgun »

rockfordstone wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 10:25 am
Tommy wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 9:24 am
We are suffering from a massive failure of government policy. Simple as that. We should all be angry.
i dont think this wave, spike, delay is even down to failure of policy. we red listed bangladesh, we red listed pakistan, we didnt red list india because boris johnson needed the win of a trade deal with india. he wanted to do a victory lap in india and be photographed signing it all.

that's not policy failure, it's pure ego that has put us here
Totally agree, Boris and his vanity costing lives again

MiG_Eater
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by MiG_Eater »

UKTopgun wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 10:22 am
Forgive me, what does 1600 people in UK every day allude to?
Sorry, fat fingers. Edited my post.

Approximately 1600 people die each die in the UK.

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Spiny Norman
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Spiny Norman »

Johnson didn't think the British would accept a lockdown in spring 2020. But we did. Because we could see the value in it. It was effective in not over-running the NHS and we had low-levels in summer. We thought the winter would be bad but had that time to enjoy the sun, go on holiday, see friends and family, etc.

Johnson, through incompetence and bravado, has in summer 2021 led himself into a corner. He has over promised easing but despite him holding his fingers crossed (which seems to be his overall pandemic response) infections are rising. The Delta/Indian variant carries twice the likelihood of hospitalisation against the Alpha/Kent. Plus it's easier to catch. This could have been prevented. Germany doesn't have the same incidence because it tightened its borders against India (and Britain, the super-spreader country).

The UK population just won't accept a lockdown now because he has mismanaged expectations time and time again. From a public health perspective the proper thing right now is probably a firebreak lockdown as roll-out of vaccination continues, but hey the football's on! Johnson might get a bad headline in the Daily Mail. (Breweries seem to be the most effective lobby group in the country as ever since indoor pub drinking became allowed, we've seen rates of infection rising.)

In 3 months the Delta variant will be forgotten and will have been overtaken by the Blackpool Variant or the Wimbledon one or whatever.

It's so frustrating that our wellbeing is in the hands of fools.

farnboroughrob
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by farnboroughrob »

Spint Normal this is a case of the short termism that blights UK politics. Johnson likes to promise the earth rather than manage expectiations. Rather than saying no foriegn travel to say September he comes up with a fudge that means the airlines don't need support and if you can quarintine on return then fill your boots.
As has been said do we restrict for a long period the many to protect the few? Or do we accept that people will die and get on with things? We are way too far down the road to go for zero Covid and I don't think even New Zealand will achieve that long term as they will have to open eventually.
Finally I think one issue with the public is millions of people know nobody who has tested positive, and even fewer that have been ill. My dad is still the only person who I know 100% had it. Yet I know 5 people around his age who also died last year from other things. It is almost like if you didn't die of Covid they you don't matter?

FGR2
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by FGR2 »

The problem we have is a leader that is incompetent and has no critical thought process.

He has left all the thinking to “scientists” rather than take pre-emptive decisions himself.

By the time you wait 4 weeks for data, in a pandemic like this, it is too late.

His failure to put India on the red list is a major error.

Teaboy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

are you saying that people die and so we should just get on with it and accept that life expectancy may be a little lower?

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CJS
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by CJS »

Teaboy wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 12:22 pm
are you saying that people die and so we should just get on with it and accept that life expectancy may be a little lower?
I'm not sure who your question is aimed at? I mean, I don't think that. Who do you think is saying that?

To address other posts - yes it seems that BJ's ego got the better of him with regards to not red listing India sooner, but perhaps it should be remembered that he is not a one man (person, obviously) band. There are plenty of people around him who *could* have persuaded him to call off the trade deal negotiations earlier (or, FFS, do them online :rolling_eyes: ) but seemingly chose not to.

As much of an idiot as he is, I don't believe BJ is making these cretinous decisions on his own.

So either:
a) those around him are as incompetent as he is, in which case they aren't fit for office or;
b) they are weak and unable to influence his decision making, in which case they aren't fit for office or;
c) they stood back and did nothing so as to heap the blame on to BJ himself and away from themselves, in which case they aren't fit for office.
With just the slightest bit of finesse, I might have made a little less mess.

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Tommy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Tommy »

farnboroughrob wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 9:45 am
What happens in October/November when cases rise again?
On what basis do you think that cases will rise again in October/November?

Is there a variant vaccines are not effective against?

MiG_Eater
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by MiG_Eater »

Pretty sure cases will rise in the Autumn as they do with all respiratory viruses. The vaccines certainly seem to be protecting against death and severe illness, but not so much against infections. This is, obviously, exactly what we want as its putting less pressure on the virus to mutate into something that escapes vaccines - but when cases rise even more than they are now, there will inevitably be enough deaths to make headlines and justify more restrictions.

As i've said many times before, I doubt there'll be any excess deaths until September, but all the people that would be dying now in a normal year will probably end up dying over the Autumn and Winter, and i've no doubt Covid will get the blame.

MiG_Eater
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by MiG_Eater »

Charles Walker on R4 WATO sounding utterly defeated and heartbroken. He quite reasonably brought up 2015's flu season where in one month 5000 died with no fanfare or panic of any kind. today we continue restrictions with below average all cause deaths, and Covid deaths in single figures.

He predicted no let up in restrictions until at least Summer 2022, as well as additional restrictions in Autumn and Winter 2021. I've no doubt he is correct.

Teaboy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

a flu season where 5000 died when no restrictions were in place is not comparable to previous Covid season in which 150,000 died while severe restrictions were in place.

feel free to pull up some numbers on "Long Flu" any time you like

MiG_Eater
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by MiG_Eater »

Its called post viral fatigue or post viral syndrome and its real - I had it.

There is no way in hell 150,000 died because of Covid. Maybe "with" Covid (edit: *last year), but given excess deaths last year were something like 70,000 you've got to assume that Lockdown massively reduced deaths over all (no way that's true) you need to assume that at least half of those were deaths caused by other things with a positive Covid test.

Don't forget, Covid is rampant in hospitals. I'd argue there were times last year where it was hard to die at all without it being recorded as a Covid death.
Last edited by MiG_Eater on Mon 14 Jun 2021, 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

vandal
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by vandal »

With regard to deaths due to delays in other treatments - Cancer etc, the blame for this lies squarely at the door of the Conservative Government. Over 10 years of crippling Austerity, underfunding of the NHS, ignoring the advice given on 'Exercise Cygnus' to name a few.

Granted, Covid 19 hasn't helped, but if the NHS hadn't been underfunded, & the findings of Exercise Cygnus taken seriously, our NHS may well have been better placed to cater to everyone with a condition, whether it be terminal, disabling, crippling, or mental health related & not at the expense of Covid 19.

Teaboy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

MiG_Eater wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 2:18 pm

There is no way in hell 150,000 died because of Covid. Maybe "with" Covid, but given excess deaths last year were something like 70,000 you've got to assume that Lockdown massively reduced deaths over all (no way that's true) you need to assume that at least half of those were deaths caused by other things with a positive Covid test.

Don't forget, Covid is rampant in hospitals. I'd argue there were times last year where it was hard to die at all without it being recorded as a Covid death.
And with that you reveal what you really are. Though I'll admit there is some logic to it.
Last edited by Teaboy on Mon 14 Jun 2021, 2:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.

vandal
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by vandal »

CJS wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 12:44 pm

So either:
a) those around him are as incompetent as he is, in which case they aren't fit for office or;
b) they are weak and unable to influence his decision making, in which case they aren't fit for office or;
c) they stood back and did nothing so as to heap the blame on to BJ himself and away from themselves, in which case they aren't fit for office.
PMBJ has been shown to have gotten rid of everyone who isn't / wasn't a 'brown nose Brexit yes (wo)man'.

Teaboy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

However on closer inspection, there is no logic to it. At the end of the year the Covid Death toll stood at 70000, with excess deaths calculated at 80000
The other 80000 deaths that bring us up to 150,000 were THIS year.

So no, your "excess deaths are only half our total deaths" does not explain anything, just reading the data wrong and your figure for how many excess deaths there were last year is about the same as the amount of Covid deaths there were - the discrepancy being caused because the data I used to get 70000 death toll at the end of the year was the governments "within 28 days of first positive" tally, with excess deaths adding another 10000 to that to give a figure of 80000.

So I take back my "what you really are" comment, my apologies. It seems my initial reaction that you were halving our death toll was because of denial, but it is not for the reasons above.

MiG_Eater
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by MiG_Eater »

Totally right Teaboy. I misunderstood your post and thought you were claiming 150,000 Covid deaths last year.

I think I assumed this because I remember arguing with someone (last year!) who was suggesting a similar figure.

We agree that the figure for 'with Covid' deaths in 2020 is around 70,000.

Teaboy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

MiG_Eater wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 2:38 pm
Totally right Teaboy. I misunderstood your post and thought you were claiming 150,000 Covid deaths last year.

I think I assumed this because I remember arguing with someone (last year!) who was suggesting a similar figure.

We agree that the figure for 'with Covid' deaths in 2020 is around 70,000.
Yeah we've got there.

70,000-80,000 last year, 70-80000 so far this year. 150k Total with covid on the death certificate, best part of 128k within 28 days of first positive test. There is no total of excess deaths for this year that I can find at the moment, but adding up the weekly totals is roughly right.
The Government reported 70,000 dead by end of year, excess deaths says 80,000. There is no argument that lockdowns have reduced over all deaths I don't think..... or that something other than covid has caused all these excess deaths. It also moots the argument that people are being put down as covid deaths who havn't died of covid. The official count and the excess deaths directly correlate.

It was perhaps my fault, and I did think of changing my wording at the time but didn't, when I said "The previous covid season". This was a very flippant comment in which I amalgamated the first and second waves and labelled them a "season". This is where your confusion came in, and I can see why!

MiG_Eater
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by MiG_Eater »

Glad we got to the bottom of it, but I do genuinely think lots of people who would have died anyway, or at least as soon as they caught any other respiratory infection, were recorded as Covid deaths. Having a positive SARS-CoV2 test does not mean you have Covid, but it does mean you'll go down as a Covid death if you happen to die within 28 days of the test.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... sed-virus/

I also think the restrictions will have caused an enormous amount of death, in the short term, and long. See my earlier post about the child who was denied cancer treatment and subsequently died. I know several health care professionals who were extremely worried at the massive drop in heart attack and stroke patients in A&E. Obviously these illnesses were still happening, but people weren't coming in.

Teaboy
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by Teaboy »

Right, but excess deaths gives us a reasonably accurate account of number of people who have died in excess of a usual year. And it is the same as the reported number of Covid deaths.

"professionals who were extremely worried at the massive drop in heart attack and stroke patients "

Then they didn't go into hospital and get a test and get put down as "covid deaths" either then?

I think any discrepancies either way are roughly equalled out. For everyone mislabelled as covid with a the cause of death there was another who didn't get tested.

If someone was in a car accident, and was admitted to hospital and subsequently caught covid and died. Covid is the cause of the death if the injuries sustained in the car accident were not alone enough to cause death.

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rockfordstone
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by rockfordstone »

CJS wrote:
Mon 14 Jun 2021, 12:44 pm
So either:
a) those around him are as incompetent as he is, in which case they aren't fit for office or;
b) they are weak and unable to influence his decision making, in which case they aren't fit for office or;
c) they stood back and did nothing so as to heap the blame on to BJ himself and away from themselves, in which case they aren't fit for office.
all of the above
A) only those who swore loyalty to him and brexit are in power, none of them are there on ability or merit, in fact at least 2 got sacked by the former PM for being dodgey
B) see A, no one has any power because they are yes men
C) they will sit back and deflect blame, when the sharks start circling for johnson they will all pile it on him and say "we were just following the PM" getting ready to stand for the next leader. its the tory party way. notice how gove is being really really quiet at the moment. he's setting himself up already.

it's all a product of the boris johnson machine. its a populist government that purged the smart moderate ones on the alter of brexit. we are now left with a bunch of incompetent yes men with power complexes who i wouldn't trust to clean up after my dog.

farnboroughrob
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Re: COVID-19: Your Thoughts and it's effects on you.

Post by farnboroughrob »

I do believe your personal circumstances have much to do with your attitude to Covid restrictions. Those who's incomes have been unaffected in particular seem to be ok with restrictions, some even seem to enjoy them? The younger the people and the more that their income and careers have been affected the more they are againt losckdown. I have three ex colleauges where were made redundant last July and none of them have found work for the same salary. They are all 50+ and doing more menial jobs. The young are suffering much more though and their working lives will be greatly affected by this. Mine was effected by the early 90's recession and I never regained a career, only a job.

Of course there are those who are already ignoring the whole thing. My wife keeps her horse at a farm run by a family we know well and its down a rural dead end. They have pretty much ignored social distancing, kids have had friends round all the time. Their son will be 18 in a few days and will have a discreet party for about 20. Nothing what so ever has happened there, no cases at all. That is one of the issues because Covid is actually so rare millions of us are not concerned about it at all. We are far more likely to die of cancer than Covid.

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